Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

randomshenans said:
The markets are unseasonably buoyant. I have read a lot about that suggests we could face a total depression due to the amount printed vs. the tightening that is starting to happen.

For me, it's a bit like pffft I can't predict these things but I can try and maximise my income streams so that I'm in the best position to counter anything that could potentially happen.
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Its hard visualise globally from sat here in the UK. But I'm personally wary that here people have picked up too much debt. Its probably OK if jobs market carries on.

But personally I'm shielded from quite a lot {by OK wage and lots of fixes) but I can still feel the pinch of being poorer.


It must be far far worse for many people. Tentative times ahead I think
 
With the debt at the amount it is, it's always been a house of cards but it seems super fragile at the moment. Can't control where it goes, you just have to make sure you're covered whatever it does I suppose
 
randomshenans said:
With the debt at the amount it is, it's always been a house of cards but it seems super fragile at the moment. Can't control where it goes, you just have to make sure you're covered whatever it does I suppose
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Global debt (all types) just seems to be always increasing in real terms. Hear the sad stories of individuals over spending at Christmas and then stuffed for months.

The UK debt and our interest bill. All the goals to reduce the debt. But there's always some event to increase it. Covid, energy price guarantee. Even in stable years it doesn't really get eroded.


House of cards does seem apt. Its amazing how much debt is considered OK. Look at corps like cineworld. Still struggling on in a declining market with extreme debt.
 
413x said:
House of cards does seem apt. Its amazing how much debt is considered OK. Look at corps like cineworld. Still struggling on in a declining market with extreme debt.
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I read something that said something like, the economy used to be based on assets and value and now it's based on consumer debt, which is pretty accurate.

If people are not borrowing money, people don't make money... it's the biggest thing to make our economy work, rather than something actually tangible.
 
randomshenans said:
I read something that said something like, the economy used to be based on assets and value and now it's based on consumer debt, which is pretty accurate.

If people are not borrowing money, people don't make money... it's the biggest thing to make our economy work, rather than something actually tangible.
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Its just can kicking right?
Most of us have a debt ceiling. But government (and seems to be increasing case for business) that ceiling seems far too high. Or absent. I get its different. Personal debt to Corp debt to national but its still debt.

UK debt has spiked since pre covid to over 100pc gdp. And that debt has interest. Its not like big government projects have yielded good return (good debt) either.


Bigger and bigger chunk of tax income is going to debt repay. And there's not much to go around.
 
413x said:
Global debt (all types) just seems to be always increasing in real terms. Hear the sad stories of individuals over spending at Christmas and then stuffed for months.

The UK debt and our interest bill. All the goals to reduce the debt. But there's always some event to increase it. Covid, energy price guarantee. Even in stable years it doesn't really get eroded.


House of cards does seem apt. Its amazing how much debt is considered OK. Look at corps like cineworld. Still struggling on in a declining market with extreme debt.
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IMO the basic strategy i believe plenty are employing is, top line revenue growth at any cost, but the return on capital is below the cost of capital, meaning for each £1 extra they make, they lose more infact.

Cineworld issued new shares in 2018, to fund extremely low return on capital business, then covid happened, and they are currently returning negative % still.

This is not some obscure global debt issue, its that investors are not very clever, take uber for example, they operate at a negative return on capital, yet people are still buying it, the sales pitch is one day they will make profit. But that is basically not possible.

Anyway, the 3 big A's Alphabet, Amazon and Apple reporting earnings today after market close. I have in the first 2.
 
Uther said:
Was nice to see the S&P go up like a lift yesterday. :p
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Theres a theory its breaking a downtrend so is very likely to outperform. But you know how theories go and its a chart based estimate. Equally possible, we backtrack to confirm the lows also.

Apple is a giant part of S&P500 now, got that already. China not locking down is presumably very simply bullish for a few things.

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Worth reading as a summary I think, ex FT
 
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BP up 8% today. Been waiting for it to make over 500 again thats a big level to climb over I guess. Could make 560 again

Oil up 4% today, one idea I heard possibly quite reasonable is the move up for this asset probably comes after selling from USA strategic reserve lightens or ceases
 
silversurfer said:
BP up 8% today. Been waiting for it to make over 500 again thats a big level to climb over I guess. Could make 560 again

Oil up 4% today, one idea I heard possibly quite reasonable is the move up for this asset probably comes after selling from USA strategic reserve lightens or ceases
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The policies in the US push oil prices up due to not allowing much investment into the sector, Shell/BP are good investments currently IMO, reducing debt, and performing share buybacks.

in 2022, shell reduced share count by -660.53M‬ which is -8.62‬%, For BP its not fully updated but give or take -7.5% ish

This level of share buyback is pretty insane, especially with a suppressed valuation, and it should continue for years

IMO oil companies are not cyclical in the current political environment.

For me, my sell signal is trump winning 2024, IMO will lower energy prices due to pushing investment through
 
Does anyone here use L2 screens for tracking stocks?

I invest with II and have Stockopedia UK and US subscriptions. I find this very useful.

Don't really bother with ADVFN other than to read the comments.

II does offer an L2 service in Quotestream at £20+vat.

I've take a 30 day trial of SharepadPro and whilst I can see its use, I think it's probably too much for my needs. Will see how I feel about it end of the trial period. If I just use the L2 share tracking then I may just use the II offering.
 
Cracking day for Rolls Royce, i was a little nervous given their debt levels and all the interest rate rises, but they've released great accounts and up 23% today which is massive for such a big company.

Hyve buyout is annoying, the buy offer is less than my buy-in price so potentially a locked in loss on that one, after having a little spell in decent profit.
 
Martynt74 said:
Cracking day for Rolls Royce, i was a little nervous given their debt levels and all the interest rate rises, but they've released great accounts and up 23% today which is massive for such a big company.
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Its my biggest T212 success story, bought 1000 at 70.85p Oct last year. Hope they keep rising.
 
I sold RR at 109 for a modest gain last year....should have hung on!

In other news, Lucid absolutely tanked on their delivery guidance for this year. Keepin it real! (I've bought more)
 
mid_gen said:
I sold RR at 109 for a modest gain last year....should have hung on!

In other news, Lucid absolutely tanked on their delivery guidance for this year. Keepin it real! (I've bought more)
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Always seemed an odd choice for you, you always seen quite conservative from your postings!
 
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