Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
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Soldato
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Anyone trading the stock market should have a good awareness of macro concepts. If you're trying to make money, it's important you understand money itself. Therefore you should understand inflation. It's my opinion that the inflation figures are being fudged. Anyone who takes an interest in macro and inflation should take an interest in Bitcoin. It is all part of being a successful investor.
This is a fair comment imo
Bitcoin hasn't offered any protection against inflation though. Contrary to what many think, first sign of trouble it tanked hard.
Soldato
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This has been discussed at length in the Bitcoin thread, but the summary is it cannot function as an inflation (consumer prices) hedge unless it becomes the base currency of the economy. At present there is no direct relationship between consumer price change and the Bitcoin price. Anyway, I won't digress further here.
Of relevance though is that I think it's quite likely the FED will begin money printing (QE) in early to mid 2024, and this will be good for the stock market and Bitcoin. Bitcoin price performance does have some correlation with FED money printing, and I expect the stock market does too.
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I think money printing by mid next year is unlikely. We also discussed how bitcoin would be a deflationary currency and how most people would find that worse than the existing system. But as others said, better back in the bitcoin thread.
Soldato
Dude we are ants walking amongst elephants, As ants we just do our trades and hope that an elephant don't step on us.. some day we may get luckly and hitch a ride on an elephant without knowing and they take is further and faster to another place, wherever we want to be there or not is beyond our control.
Anyone who can make an elephant (marco) size impact in the stock market wouldn't/shouldn't be looking at internet forums for stock market tips.
Bitcoin is a commodity but unlike other commoditiy it has no real world use so it's just relying soley on appreciation for value, hence why it has a low Beta value.
The value of bitcoin is easy;
The more people who want it, the more that they will have to pay for it, the more it goes up.
The less people who want it, the less it sells for, the value goes down..
Ignore all the marco stuff of what way the butterfly is flapping it's wings, that may cause a tsunami in Japan, which causes their governement to print more cash, which causes them to sell their US dollars in holding... etc...
Always reminds me of the "this time next year we'll be a millionaire Rodney" phrase......
Soldato
It's not a foregone conclusion that QE comes back. It's created massive dislocation in the economy and fuelled asset price inflation to a point where we have crippling wealth inequality. What evidence are you seeing that QE will be back next year? It's basically my thesis for the next 5/10 years, fade the cowbell bro's. I think it's more likely over the next 10 years we'll have direct payments to households rather than households bailing out zombie companies, i see no appetite from the electorate to do what we did over the last 10 years.
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Soldato
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The main factor is an upcoming US election and Biden will want the Fed to help him out with "improving" the economy by whatever means.
Who told you it was a good currency? BTW if it were the currency its value would be fixed, I.e you wouldn't compare it to fiat. It would also be deflationary and that is worse than an inflationary scenario.Why is BTC a good currency? Isn't it just going up in value, making it entirely useless as a currency? It's the opposite problem of inflation. It means everyones money is becoming worth more
Soldato
Doesn't necessarily mean they would do QE though does it. They could cut interest rates, that eases financial conditions also. But i'd be hesitant to suggest rate cuts atm would be anything but bearish for risk assets and the economy. If you believe the FED and the administration are in cahoots with each other then QE kinda goes against everything that Biden campaigned on.
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Soldato
Yub it’s ok… the community board on the app drives me nuts.. clearly some of them don’t know what they are talking about and just trying to get a name for themselves as an influencer… I would disable the whole thing if possible.
one was claiming they are using our uninvested funds to trade to trade in the fx market… that is legal and what SBF is getting locked away for… as for it being better than some banks, they really need to spend more time looking at banks accounts than posting spam.
yea I pay no attention to the social crap, I'm usually on the web version anyway which doesnt have that social stuff
Soldato
It might be a response but it doesnt achieve anything, Bitcoin is worth nothing, as are £ and $. the purpose of £ or $ or even bitcoin is to use as currency to purchase things.
In terms of investment the point is to purchase real assets, which are, property/land/stock.
Inflation is a stealth tax, as more currency is created those who hold onto £ or any other currency, will pay the inflation tax.
The economy does not work on inflation, or deflation, the economy works on productivity, currency is created as needed, if excess currency is created you get inflation.
They can print money like crazy while we experience deflation IF the economy grows more than the money supply.
a 2% target is to grow the money supply 2% above the rate of economic growth.
The important part here is, the growth of the economic vs the money supply, currency being inflationary is not a bad thing, the bad thing is when they print more than they should.
Yeah just don't look at the social bit, quite to just not go into that section. It's pretty much WSB.
I wouldn't believe a word anyone says on there. T212 doing naughties? Doubt it, don't care either as long as they are FSCS protected.