Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

slinxy said:
The issue with the torries is that they can’t get anything done at the moment. There’s too many right whingers that don’t really care about how the country is.. they just want their way.

If they could get regulations sorted out, then businesses can setup their business plans and adjust accordingly. But at the moment they just keep kicking the can down the road and it keeps changing, it’s very difficult for companies to plan for the unknown.
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Sitting on the outside like I am at the moment they look fine. The UK is navigating a tough time and whilst we may feel the situation from the inside looking out is bad it’s actually fine looking from the outside in. I don’t see either party having any negative or positive change on the market.

Eyes will be on the US elections not ours.
 
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slinxy said:
The issue with the torries is that they can’t get anything done at the moment. There’s too many right whingers that don’t really care about how the country is.. they just want their way.

If they could get regulations sorted out, then businesses can setup their business plans and adjust accordingly. But at the moment they just keep kicking the can down the road and it keeps changing, it’s very difficult for companies to plan for the unknown.
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We still, and always will have a divided country over Brexit. If we’d have remained those wanting an exit would have blamed everything on remaining and now we’re out, those annoyed at that decision blame everything on brexit.

We just don’t roll our sleeves up in this country and get on with it, we want to blame someone, we want inquests and then more inquests.

Throw into that a nation with a huge percentage that don’t want to work, who milk the pot dry and who helped create a nation where business had to rely on cheap Labour from Eastern Europe, not just cheap but harder working than most.

We just feel broken, Conservatives are a mess, Rishi is hopeless, Starmer is Mr Hindsight, Rayner is a joke. As a nation we’ve just got it wrong and we’re all a bit to blame.
 
*cough* not the thread for Brexit talk *cough*

I don’t see this having any impact on the markets next year as there will not be a change in that situation with either party. We don’t have anything radically changing in the UK next year so it just won’t feature in anyway on the markets. The US however will be significant. Usually a new president has preceded a bull run in the markets too.
 
ristac said:
We just don’t roll our sleeves up in this country and get on with it, we want to blame someone, …
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Yub that’s the issue we have at the moment, the uk government has already changed their plans on on working visa as part of their party was kicking up a fuss..

At least with labour, they will be singing from the same hymn sheet, even if it’s not to a tune of our liking… until they start fighting within themselves and what ever is left of the torries will take over again.
 
Outside of a war you can't predict the biggest thing next year will be the true impact of rate rises being felt in the real economy. Far bigger than anything else imo. (At least which we can predict with certainty!)
 
Uther said:
Yep, eyes on the US, not this basket case of a country. Another few years of a bull run would be lovely. :p
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I've seen first hand the benefit of buying USA shares vs UK shares.

Sure they are volatile. And UK ones I've bought aren't terrible. But overall.... Yeah the gulf is huge!
 
Some of my single picks are doing amazingly now.
And nothing bad in last 3 months.

COIN now up 68 percent
PFC up 73 percent in just over a week
Are the significant highlights

My latest gamble is terrain orbital
 
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So, 2024 predictions?

What world events are going to crush our hopes and dreams?

Escalation of Ukraine war?
Escalation of Middle East conflict?
Piracy disrupting trade in the Red Sea?
Trump losing the election again and making a more concerted effort to overthrow the democratic process?
Migrant crisis in Europe?
Climate change starting to bite, particularly agriculture?

On the upsides:

Hopefully rid of the Tories so some upside in the UK with a government that tries to govern instead of bleat about culture war dross.
Inflation stabilising.
Interest rates coming down.

I feel pretty confident that the S&P will be up on the year. My EV stocks will continue to perform well recovering from the last couple years. I've put a fair big punt on Atai Life Sciences but that's a 5 year kinda time line so might be all over the place.
 
Globally wealth is being concentrated into fewer and fewer mega corporations, and that will accelerate with the AI age. I don't see large stock indices hitting a wall any time soon. Perhaps a geographic shift.

I'd be looking at the Saudis personally, they seem to be one of the few countries actually making things happen to transition to the post fossil-fuel era. I suspect the UK and US will be left in the dust with all the populist bickering fuelled by Internet misinformation.
 
200sols said:
Valuation is crazy by historical standards. Everyone thinks it will be 'different this time' and somehow it is justified but it usually reverts to mean in the end.
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Every valuation is going to be crazy by historical standards. The market tends average around 10% a year and has done for decades. That’s unlikely to end over the long term. I took more issue that the article completely ignored the bear market and was claiming the market was going beyond a 10 year growth cycle. It fell around 26% for 9 months which is very much a typical bear cycle.
 
delta0 said:
Every valuation is going to be crazy by historical standards. The market tends average around 10% a year and has done for decades. That’s unlikely to end over the long term. I took more issue that the article completely ignored the bear market and was claiming the market was going beyond a 10 year growth cycle. It fell around 26% for 9 months which is very much a typical bear cycle.
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Buying high typically does not lead to those returns. In this context timing is everything.

A 9month decline is but a blip, its erased all that. A double top and deeper fall is very possible though. I just buy the ftse all world like ever. Larger declines in the s&p 500 have tended to come after a fed pivot in the past.
 
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mid_gen said:
So, 2024 predictions?

What world events are going to crush our hopes and dreams?

Escalation of Ukraine war?
Escalation of Middle East conflict?
Piracy disrupting trade in the Red Sea?
Trump losing the election again and making a more concerted effort to overthrow the democratic process?
Migrant crisis in Europe?
Climate change starting to bite, particularly agriculture?

On the upsides:

Hopefully rid of the Tories so some upside in the UK with a government that tries to govern instead of bleat about culture war dross.
Inflation stabilising.
Interest rates coming down.

I feel pretty confident that the S&P will be up on the year. My EV stocks will continue to perform well recovering from the last couple years. I've put a fair big punt on Atai Life Sciences but that's a 5 year kinda time line so might be all over the place.
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Taiwan as well
Populists/hard right rising across the globe
Trump winning?
 
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mid_gen said:
Globally wealth is being concentrated into fewer and fewer mega corporations, and that will accelerate with the AI age. I don't see large stock indices hitting a wall any time soon. Perhaps a geographic shift.

I'd be looking at the Saudis personally, they seem to be one of the few countries actually making things happen to transition to the post fossil-fuel era. I suspect the UK and US will be left in the dust with all the populist bickering fuelled by Internet misinformation.
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For sure.
Inequality is going to grow/growing quite rapidly.
 
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