CNR: Fantastic news today, they have sold their Grafton shares raising $1.1M. I predict it is going to go back near 3p in quick time now.
DYOR, not financial advice, etc, etc.
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CNR: Fantastic news today, they have sold their Grafton shares raising $1.1M. I predict it is going to go back near 3p in quick time now.
DYOR, not financial advice, etc, etc.
Soldato
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Its mostly guesswork is the short answer in my experience. 293p is roughly half way between pre discovery price and the highs. I think its a judgement between sentiment vs potential risk reward
Surely its better to stick to bp shell or even cairn if greatly unsure.
All of those are working companies also exploring for oil rather then no profit oil drillers only which are probably best not for learners.
CNE was the biggest faller yesterday, might buy some back. Barc just off the bottom of its gloomy descending channel today.
The dollar looks brighter recently forcing more sensible pricing. Oil I think is set to continue down overall though I'd love to see it fake up to 83 around the ex-div on shell so I can sell nicely
looking for news to adjust gog tomorrow
Surely its better to stick to bp shell or even cairn if greatly unsure.
All of those are working companies also exploring for oil rather then no profit oil drillers only which are probably best not for learners.
CNE was the biggest faller yesterday, might buy some back. Barc just off the bottom of its gloomy descending channel today.
The dollar looks brighter recently forcing more sensible pricing. Oil I think is set to continue down overall though I'd love to see it fake up to 83 around the ex-div on shell so I can sell nicely
looking for news to adjust gog tomorrow
Soldato
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RRL near to the edge I figure, reports on all their badland activities Georgia, Somalia, Texas 
http://rangeresources.com.au/index.php?id=80&rid=t_1593&mid=122&aC=0df261b3&jumpurl=2
http://rangeresources.com.au/filead...rly_Report_For_Period_Ending_30_JUNE_2010.pdf
If I was a smart guy I would have waited till now to buy RRL. Its the darkest hour type opportunity, can of course can be worse but its really stretched this years uptrend to the limit and its when the elastic band appears about to break thats when it could move the most I estimate. anyhow I havent read the reports yet, price didnt move so I guess its no news, topped up my tiny 0.65% overall holding
http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/36/img12883676630274.gif
MXP is above the 200 day average, its a positive looking chart. Beaten august highs, thats some support, obviously big news matters more
Shell is near its highs, lots of waiting sellers here (price resistance) and the ex div next weds suggests it'll fall quite a lot from here. Im holding for the div but would sell after if it stays at a good price.
Bought some cairn after bad greenland test results, they will still own 50% of cairn india and be very cash rich selling off half to VED
Barc rally was short lived, someone is selling them. In fact we know the arab guy basically sold so maybe its that obvious. Lows of the week, bottom of its range which is going down but Im still intending to get a few on its lows each time since the market is up so much and this share isnt I'll sell elsewhere (like shell) to buy here.
exdiv 17th & 09/11/10 11:00 Trading statement Q3 2010 Interim Management Statement
http://rangeresources.com.au/index.php?id=80&rid=t_1593&mid=122&aC=0df261b3&jumpurl=2
http://rangeresources.com.au/filead...rly_Report_For_Period_Ending_30_JUNE_2010.pdf
If I was a smart guy I would have waited till now to buy RRL. Its the darkest hour type opportunity, can of course can be worse but its really stretched this years uptrend to the limit and its when the elastic band appears about to break thats when it could move the most I estimate. anyhow I havent read the reports yet, price didnt move so I guess its no news, topped up my tiny 0.65% overall holding
http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/36/img12883676630274.gif
MXP is above the 200 day average, its a positive looking chart. Beaten august highs, thats some support, obviously big news matters more
Shell is near its highs, lots of waiting sellers here (price resistance) and the ex div next weds suggests it'll fall quite a lot from here. Im holding for the div but would sell after if it stays at a good price.
Bought some cairn after bad greenland test results, they will still own 50% of cairn india and be very cash rich selling off half to VED
Barc rally was short lived, someone is selling them. In fact we know the arab guy basically sold so maybe its that obvious. Lows of the week, bottom of its range which is going down but Im still intending to get a few on its lows each time since the market is up so much and this share isnt I'll sell elsewhere (like shell) to buy here.
exdiv 17th & 09/11/10 11:00 Trading statement Q3 2010 Interim Management Statement
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Does anyone know what actually happens during an equity placement to raise additional funds? This usually seems to happen on AIM quoted companies after their IPO to raise additional capital for expansion (or in the case of Oil, fund more exploration).
If there are 100000 shares on the market at 100p, and the company issues 100000 more shares, surely the price must drop even if they are doing this for a positive reason (not because they need cash to pay debt). Can anyone link me to a recent case of this happening, ie a company issuing more ordinary shares to the market, and what happened to the share price. It seems really hard to find actual examples of this by googling.
If there are 100000 shares on the market at 100p, and the company issues 100000 more shares, surely the price must drop even if they are doing this for a positive reason (not because they need cash to pay debt). Can anyone link me to a recent case of this happening, ie a company issuing more ordinary shares to the market, and what happened to the share price. It seems really hard to find actual examples of this by googling.
Soldato
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If there are 100000 shares on the market at 100p, and the company issues 100000 more shares:
Starting total Market capitalisation is £100,000 and we'll assume cash/debt and assets of company is zero.
Market cap reflects a popular brand name and potential to market it profitably
After rights or equity placement. If they sell 100k shares at no discount, thats another 100k and I think it all goes to the cash balance of the company
So 200k Market cap and 100k cash assets now. Twice as many shares in the same brand name potential but with cash to invest.
With twice as many shares the share price could half, that'd mean the market cap halves back down to 100k
However thats unlikely because the company now has 100k of cash so its worth a bit more then initially.
if you ask me after your pretend equity placement I would value that company at 150k market cap or a final share price of 75p.
Its an open debate, the price would vary a lot, also its unlikely people will buy into an equity placement at a premium or equal to the previous market price. They'd all lose money so usually its done at discount and on a far smaller scale then that.
Exceptions to this would be RBS , see iii for stats on their shares in issue history
A example I saw recently is VGM which is a gold mine share priced at 3p. They have doubled in price since the summer. Potential for 4m ounces of gold and market cap is 150m
They have 4bn shares now
In july they issued 400m new shares. In oct 1m more shares then another 8m more shares sold into market, over that time the share price doubled anyway
At the same time as they dilute the shares, the potential of the company and therefore the share price has been rising similarly to the markets dollar gold price
http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON:vgm
The thing is they dont have to issue shares for money, they can go to the banks and borrow it. The banks can then call in that debt on the company and seize all assets wiping out the shareholders so either way is risky. See CNT news for this http://www.google.co.uk/finance/company_news?q=LON:CNT
At least you get a running total when its new money via new shares
thats a positive reason. who would you rather get the profits of a company, the debt holders charging maybe 7% or would you like to give the company that money via shares issued and get a 7% dividend. I think lloyds did this, ie. rights ~ 60p vs current price
If we had an accountant on this thread it might help some but anyway main thing to focus on I think is the company direction, is the ongoing business viable, theres no point trying to support a landslide but in the case of a gold mine theres a solid underlying case.
If the gold price drops, etc it could wreck their share price though, its a leveraged situation
Starting total Market capitalisation is £100,000 and we'll assume cash/debt and assets of company is zero.
Market cap reflects a popular brand name and potential to market it profitably
After rights or equity placement. If they sell 100k shares at no discount, thats another 100k and I think it all goes to the cash balance of the company
So 200k Market cap and 100k cash assets now. Twice as many shares in the same brand name potential but with cash to invest.
With twice as many shares the share price could half, that'd mean the market cap halves back down to 100k
However thats unlikely because the company now has 100k of cash so its worth a bit more then initially.
if you ask me after your pretend equity placement I would value that company at 150k market cap or a final share price of 75p.
Its an open debate, the price would vary a lot, also its unlikely people will buy into an equity placement at a premium or equal to the previous market price. They'd all lose money so usually its done at discount and on a far smaller scale then that.
Exceptions to this would be RBS , see iii for stats on their shares in issue history
A example I saw recently is VGM which is a gold mine share priced at 3p. They have doubled in price since the summer. Potential for 4m ounces of gold and market cap is 150m
They have 4bn shares now
In july they issued 400m new shares. In oct 1m more shares then another 8m more shares sold into market, over that time the share price doubled anyway
At the same time as they dilute the shares, the potential of the company and therefore the share price has been rising similarly to the markets dollar gold price
http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON:vgm
The thing is they dont have to issue shares for money, they can go to the banks and borrow it. The banks can then call in that debt on the company and seize all assets wiping out the shareholders so either way is risky. See CNT news for this http://www.google.co.uk/finance/company_news?q=LON:CNT
At least you get a running total when its new money via new shares
thats a positive reason. who would you rather get the profits of a company, the debt holders charging maybe 7% or would you like to give the company that money via shares issued and get a 7% dividend. I think lloyds did this, ie. rights ~ 60p vs current price
If we had an accountant on this thread it might help some but anyway main thing to focus on I think is the company direction, is the ongoing business viable, theres no point trying to support a landslide but in the case of a gold mine theres a solid underlying case.
If the gold price drops, etc it could wreck their share price though, its a leveraged situation
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What I'm trying to work out is, if I trying to calibrate a mathematical model, based on historical prices and data, then surely new equity issues introduce massive uncertainty and false data for the model. I am trying to work out how to factor this in.
Soldato
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If you go to halifax it will show share prices adjusted for shares in issue - retrospectively. If you go elsewhere it generally doesnt and the share price will almost always fall after a great deal of new shares are issued, sometimes not ie. new gold mine.
There is no absolute rule or model that will work, the free market decides prices hence the politics and drama going on with banks and governments going bankrupt, etc
Its not false data, its a complication and it does add uncertainty and volatility I agree.
estimate it, share prices are inaccurate anyway
price adjusted by shares issued http://www.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/dlmedia/security.cgi?csi=10056&action=charts
There is no absolute rule or model that will work, the free market decides prices hence the politics and drama going on with banks and governments going bankrupt, etc
Its not false data, its a complication and it does add uncertainty and volatility I agree.
estimate it, share prices are inaccurate anyway
price adjusted by shares issued http://www.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/dlmedia/security.cgi?csi=10056&action=charts
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Isn't sites like Yahoo, and Digital Look just doing 'split adjusted prices'. So they are only adjusting it when there is share consolidation etc? Not when they are issuing ordinary shares to generate cash?
Soldato
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Yahoo doesnt even do splits most of the time. VGM doesnt show as any different so you are probably right in which case people will have to consider it manually via iii info
Im sure some s****y data provider does it for a price
LCG near its lows today, ironic since they are a spreadbet company similar to IGG which has done very well recently
http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/ban...-says-fund-manager/a444932?re=11639&ea=249194
Im sure some s****y data provider does it for a price
LCG near its lows today, ironic since they are a spreadbet company similar to IGG which has done very well recently
http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/ban...-says-fund-manager/a444932?re=11639&ea=249194
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As am I, are you considering selling? My exit price was £1.74 which has been and gone today. Looking at Level 2 this could hit £1.95+ quite comfortably on this volume.
If it hit £2 I think I'd have to sell for a 100% profit.
Not sure, the news is only good and they could be on the FTSE250 next year. I had some at 91p 18months ago and topped up at 103.
I think they have more legs, currently £1200 up though
I bought these in Jan this year for £1, I saw them go down to 66p but always knew they would go back up. I'm now sitting on a £3k profit which I'm happy with. I nearly sold at £1.74 today and I'm so glad I didn't.
I just don't know where these will stop though, I can't call it!
Yeah ditto.
I had MATD which i held thinking same, could have got out at 190 but held only to see them drop, got out at 140 with a bit of profit but now they are only 90odd- pence.
Always a wounder to wish you had sold! But then when you do you sell to early !
I had MATD which i held thinking same, could have got out at 190 but held only to see them drop, got out at 140 with a bit of profit but now they are only 90odd- pence.
Always a wounder to wish you had sold! But then when you do you sell to early !
Soldato
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Dont you guys think of taking profits though. A reasonable strategy I always think is to sell but retain a no cost holding ie. profits in shares so then you cant lose
I held only a small amount of gkp, bought in march near the election then saw it fail to rally and held anyway adding a bit more at the lows. Sold at an early high in the rally/breakout, I saw a point to reenter but lacked the gumption to jump back in, alas
I dont buy 10k of these small cap shares but if I had I would have kept back like 1k, its harder to do this on smaller amounts as the commission makes it messy and soon unprofitable. Next time I will have to force myself to enter a small spread bet position
To avoid regrets I advice recirculating the money, when I sold gkp I had bhp and so on
I held only a small amount of gkp, bought in march near the election then saw it fail to rally and held anyway adding a bit more at the lows. Sold at an early high in the rally/breakout, I saw a point to reenter but lacked the gumption to jump back in, alas
I dont buy 10k of these small cap shares but if I had I would have kept back like 1k, its harder to do this on smaller amounts as the commission makes it messy and soon unprofitable. Next time I will have to force myself to enter a small spread bet position
To avoid regrets I advice recirculating the money, when I sold gkp I had bhp and so on
So for arguments sake if I held 5000 shares at a cost of £5000 and GKP is up 100% and my initial investment is £10000, the strategy would be to sell £5000 worth of the shares to bring me back to cost?