Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

tangey said:
I sold most of mine 27th Jan the day after the deepseek thing, so took a hit that day. Had already been considering stepping out of the tracker fund because there were a lot of voices saying S&P was very peaky, and also because of Trump uncertainties. Am in short term money market, so I'm up about 0.7% since then, as opposed to the tracker being down 8%.

Given what I've seen, I've decided that likelier than not, he is going to continue to wreck havoc and until I see solid evidence to the contrary, I'll continue to hold in money market.

The markets don't like uncertainty, and he is full of it.
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I fully expect Trump to have a negative impact for some time. But as soon as some of Trump's self-imposed economic sanctions are removed the stock prices will bounce back up.
 
D.P. said:
I fully expect Trump to have a negative impact for some time. But as soon as some of Trump's self-imposed economic sanctions are removed the stock prices will bounce back up.
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That is the million dollar question. His entire campaign is based on his favourite word 'tariff' and accepted that there will be some short-term pain. I can't see him just walking back on something he seems so committed to.
 
Gixer said:
All sold for now, £68 loss in the end. I won £200 on bonds this month, that'll cover that loss :cry: Naturally me selling will now mean good news for all of you that stay invested as the stock price shall now likely rise :D

What do you all think about Rolls Royce for the shorter term? I'm not looking to become a millionaire, it'd just be nice to put the cash to work in something that is safe-ish, might gain 3% - 5% in a year and is not in the US market. Could what Trump is playing at cause problems for Rolls Royce too? Only thing I can see is they've just had a big uptick and I've seen that happen with some other shares I have and after the uptick there always seems to be a settling period just after.
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The volatility you experienced is completely trivial.

Spend it all on holiday with your wife and forget about the stock market.
 
D.P. said:
I fully expect Trump to have a negative impact for some time. But as soon as some of Trump's self-imposed economic sanctions are removed the stock prices will bounce back up.
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Naa.. he's like a kid with with a bee in his bonnet, he will get bored soon...
 
smokedog said:
That is the million dollar question. His entire campaign is based on his favourite word 'tariff' and accepted that there will be some short-term pain. I can't see him just walking back on something he seems so committed to.
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He can change his mind, but he'll need some sort of scapegoat or justification. Likely as not he'll come up with something like

" My beautiful use of tariffs has forced all the countries taking unfair advantage of the US to re-negotiate trade agreements and america is now no longer the worlds commerical whipping boy, nobody ever saw tariffs used like that before. I've had professors of economics come up to be and said 'Sir, nobody in history has used tariffs like you'"

Right before he announces that the tariffs and the threat of them have served their purpose.
 
platinum87 said:
The volatility you experienced is completely trivial.

Spend it all on holiday with your wife and forget about the stock market.
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We just had a small holiday at Bluestone in Pembrokeshire. Wife's next scan is this weekend coming. If it is still showing no evidence of disease (I have everything crossed) it is likely we'll try cram in another holiday prior to the next scan, which will be 3 months time. It sucks, feels like we live life scan to scan. We'd like to go abroad but travel insurance becomes a bit of a nightmare, however if this next scan is clear we're going to make it happen somehow!
 
smokedog said:
That is the million dollar question. His entire campaign is based on his favourite word 'tariff' and accepted that there will be some short-term pain. I can't see him just walking back on something he seems so committed to.
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He also thinks the stock market is the single most important metric of the performance of POTUS so he definitely won't like it crashing. The only thing is, is whether he realizes that his tarrifs are the cause (almost certainly not because he doesn't understand how tariffs work), or he will follow the advice of someone else. Musk is a horrendous person and a fool himself, but he knows full well the stock crash is due to tariffs so Musk might convince Trump, or other Republicans. His tariffs will also raise inflation which will be noticable to the average American. He was voted in on a policy of lowering living costs , so again someone might convince the orange cheato that his tariffs are doing the exact opposite.

Maybe nothing will happen until the mid-terms and it looks like GOP will loose control of the House. Maybe it won't be until the next POTUS comes to power. But the thing is, The US economy was in great shape with Biden and the only problems are self inflicted and easily reversed. This isn't like the start of Covid when no one knew what would happen with a novel virus, let alone how to fix things. This is just a question of when can Trump be stopped
 
tangey said:
He can change his mind, but he'll need some sort of scapegoat or justification. Likely as not he'll come up with something like

" My beautiful use of tariffs has forced all the countries taking unfair advantage of the US to re-negotiate trade agreements and america is now no longer the worlds commerical whipping boy, nobody ever saw tariffs used like that before. I've had professors of economics come up to be and said 'Sir, nobody in history has used tariffs like you'"

Right before he announces that the tariffs and the threat of them have served their purpose.
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That would be classic Trump :)
 
It's ok but calmed down a bit, Intel spiked 10 percent overnight at one point but had calmed down . Nvidia now treading water at my entry point up a tiny bit £500 or so on paper today but that could evaporate in seconds
 
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