YTD only really matters if you live in the states as their tax year starts in Jan..
Which kinda makes November a good month to buy shares as people are dumping them to either lock in profit or lock in losses for capital gains offsets.
Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
- Start date
Which kinda makes November a good month to buy shares as people are dumping them to either lock in profit or lock in losses for capital gains offsets.
Soldato
- Joined
- 14 Jun 2004
- Posts
- 6,764
Why did you originally invest??
Did you do it for the long term? If so - leave it alone...
Your crystalising the loss and the hardest next question to ask yourself is - when do you reinvest it? Where is the bottom? When is the right time to put it back in?
IF it's money that should be in cash incase your worried about something in the house breaking - then you should not have invested in the first place.
VWRL is down like 2.6% in 3 months, still up 7% over 6 months and 11.8 in 12 months... Hardly time to panic.
Year to date it still up 2.2%
The panic in here is crazy...
I significantly increased my investments in the last 2 months so i am down about 6% on investments YTD. But now is the worst possible time to sell . I'll just keep investing based in my plan - investing each month in diversified ETFs, and a local bias. The strategy has already worked as hoped, because not being 100% in on US stocks has softened some of the blow.
In every scenario, if your portfolio was properly designed and diversified then not crystalizing losses by trying to time the market is the best strategy. If you are investing regularly then you will gain from Dollar Cost Averaging, i.e. you will gain from buying lower priced stocks during the downturn.
To be clear, I won't be looking to cash out for 10+ years and even that is long before retirement.
It's a tricky situation in my house. I originally invested for the longer term alas wife was diagnosed with cancer last year and whilst we hope the end result will be positive it is an unknown, as it always is with cancer. So we might end up needing money to do 'stuff' too. I thought VWRP was a safe-ish bet and it was up until Trump. If I sell now at least I've not lost much and the cash is accessible if I need it. That's my thinking, whether it is right or not who knows. My thinking usually isn't the best
When I first started, for about a year I just kept buying into a mutual fund that was losing percentages everyday.
The idea is to flip your view, if you needed to buy bricks to build a house and it was getting cheaper each day, you would think that’s a good thing, cos as some point that house will be built and sold, you just got the bricks cheaper.
The question is will the house prices return and get better than before? For me that fund turned green and I sold it in November to buy shares in dev world, em markets and S&P.
Not saying it’s guaranteed that you will make money, but the stock market has had much more highs than low. If you look at the last four by major drops; the Great Depression, dot com, housing bubble, covid.. on the chart they are minor amounts compared to the value of the market today as the market recovered.
Last edited:
If you're holding long term, now is a much better time to buy than a month ago.
Big downturns are buying opportunities. Big upturns are selling ones. If you sell the downturns and buy the upturns you're always gonna lose in the long run.
It's a tricky situation in my house. I originally invested for the longer term alas wife was diagnosed with cancer last year and whilst we hope the end result will be positive it is an unknown, as it always is with cancer. So we might end up needing money to do 'stuff' too. I thought VWRP was a safe-ish bet and it was up until Trump. If I sell now at least I've not lost much and the cash is accessible if I need it. That's my thinking, whether it is right or not who knows. My thinking usually isn't the best
All I can say is best wishes to you and the family.. Fingers crossed for positive news for you all.
The key here for holding is if you have a long time horizon.
At some point that >10 years becomes <10 years, and if that happens during a (potential) market crash, then decisions have to be made.
Saying just ignore it and hold is not the right advice for everyone. Not that anyone should be taking their advice from a random internet thread anyway (so ignore me
)
At some point that >10 years becomes <10 years, and if that happens during a (potential) market crash, then decisions have to be made.
Saying just ignore it and hold is not the right advice for everyone. Not that anyone should be taking their advice from a random internet thread anyway (so ignore me
)This could drag on for years or turn around quickly if sense prevails, so it's a tough decision. It's depressing watching your nest egg disappear before your eyes especially when you know you could need that money.It's a tricky situation in my house. I originally invested for the longer term alas wife was diagnosed with cancer last year and whilst we hope the end result will be positive it is an unknown, as it always is with cancer. So we might end up needing money to do 'stuff' too. I thought VWRP was a safe-ish bet and it was up until Trump. If I sell now at least I've not lost much and the cash is accessible if I need it. That's my thinking, whether it is right or not who knows. My thinking usually isn't the best
Yeah well i'd assume those in or nearing retirment would already have their allocations set for exactly this reason - so they dont have to panic sell and try and time the market. The problem of course is if the market goes back up then they are buying back in higher, classic way to lose money.The key here for holding is if you have a long time horizon.
At some point that >10 years becomes <10 years, and if that happens during a (potential) market crash, then decisions have to be made.
Saying just ignore it and hold is not the right advice for everyone. Not that anyone should be taking their advice from a random internet thread anyway (so ignore me
That said if I was in retirement i'd probably be holding more in MMFs etc, people may laugh but a global trade war could easily give us another decade long bear market in the US.
Soldato
- Joined
- 14 Jun 2004
- Posts
- 6,764
i think its more a point of bad timing.
i dont think any one was execting things to have gone quite the way they have.
at this point @Cavallino may be better to long hold than make and changes dependinghow much has been invested.
It's showing down 6% for me YTD
Different sites seem to list different...
Trustnet shows +2.2 YTD
FE Fundinfo shows -1.3% YTD
Vanguard themselves shows +2.72% YTD
And why I pivoted to MMF's, still have a chunk invested in a global but don't need to touch it for years now.
I think one of the problems is some people have got used to 20% a year returns, and yes, it was good while it lasted.
The info on Vanguard seems to always be out of date. So most of the figures there are based on month end 28th Feb.