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Aloreth said:
Averaging down is a risky game!

Whats your investment in RKH? What are its prospects? I don't know what much about the company but wouldnt mind a sneaky punt
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The average is just a calculation point as far as I'm concerned... This was more about increasing exposure at what I consider a bargain price than bringing down a meaningless number... :)

Rockhopper is one of the Falkland Islands Oil Explorers. It has licenses in the North Falkland basin, which is also occupied by Desire Petroleum and Argos Resources. In May 2010 they struck oil at their Sea Lion well. The discovery was rated at 170m barrels on a P50 basis. This was later unoffically upgraded to a best estimate of 242m barrels which caused the sp to spike again, but this was not officially confirmed in a further CPR. That caused the 242m figure to be retracted later when the company raised £200m from Merrill Lynch. (They wouldn't buy in at a higher valuation without the backing of a CPR). The BoD stated their strong belief in the 242m figure.

More recently the OG rig returned to RKH from DES. On Friday they announced that they found oil at their latest well (8km NW of sea lion), but said it was uncommercial on a stand alone basis. The SP tanked, but the detail in the RNS stated that oil shows had upgrade potential for the original Sea Lion discovery. RKH retain the rig to drill another well 2.3km NW of Sea Lion, to further appraise (and hopefully upgrade) the original Sea Lion discovery.

I anticipate the sp will rise ~25% to ~350p before the drill results are announced during the 6 weeks to the end of March.

Broker ratings are typically all over the place, many around 500p, with Goldman Sachs as high as 640p. Of more relevance are the numbers we actually know. They have 170m barrels of oil, and over £200m in cash. At £4.50 a barrel, Sea Lion alone is worth £765m. So:-

Sea Lion at £765m + £200m cash = £965m
There are 258,039,606 shares in issue.
965,000,000 / 258,039,606 = 3.74

Initial target price of 374p, and this ignores any potential upgrades, any more oil dicoveries, and the higher oil price @ ~$85.

If a CPR is issued confirming an upgrade to 242m barrels, at £4.50 a barrel Sea Lion would be worth £1,089m. Add back the £200m in cash and we're looking at an sp of 1,289,000,000 / 258,039,606 = 499p.

AIM trading/investment is full of optimists and sharks. Info provided as a head start as you expressed interest, not as a ramp or a tip. Any mistakes are genuine.

I'm fully invested, but always do your own research. :)
 
bigNeil said:
Puntland is relatively politically unstable, has no infrastructure, and will ultimately not be developed by RRL (will be sold on once/if proven, most believe). It will take a few $billion to develop the region if oil is found, so reserves are sold at a significant discount.

Georgia is much more stable, has geographically close infrastructure and markets, and thus far more likely to be developed by RRL. So, apply a discount for operational/capital expenditure but worth more per barrel.
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I'm all for optimism, and far from an expert, but imo projecting $30 a barrel is hopelessly optimistic, if not completely delusional.
 
Puntland is stuck on the coast, no land based borders with friendly countries. I presume the pirates would let the oil through if their tribal leaders are already getting 50%


CNR found 6.63 grams of gold per ton. I believe the average for a mine is like 1g
Already worked out on the weekend Fridays low price was a good place to buy, tad too late :o. Still looking for that to be support, I think the chart looks ok for a rise and it reminds me of the lull RRL had so lets see how that goes

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...the-surface-of-el-rodeo-concession-25490.html


Good note Kingy, makes a nice difference from 'I reckon they going up'



Kingy said:
I'm all for optimism, and far from an expert, but imo projecting $30 a barrel is hopelessly optimistic, if not completely delusional.
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Seems fair reasoning, Georgia has a big pipeline through it and is close to two major markets. I hope 30 would be a underestimate, oil should stay high and currencies weak and hopefully costs low. We've not heard much trouble in that region for a while?

Somalia is a wild remote challenging problem, they better find tons there or it'll not be worth it. It cant be refined locally. Look at Nigeria for possible outcomes I think
 
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FT Alphaville said:
BE Ok - since we're in smallcap corner

BE Anything else to look at?

NH well there's Rockhopper

Rockhopper Exploration Plc (RKH:LSE): Last: 282.25, up 4.25 (+1.53%), High: 292.00, Low: 277.90, Volume: 3.62m

NH a lot of people saying Friday's 17% fall was an overreaction

NH including our very own sector watcher

NH a sort of Stig for the markets

NH The failure of the most recent Sea Lion appraisal well is not quite the disaster that the RKH share price reaction implies. Friday afternoon's announcement that 14/10-3, an 8-km stepout, had only encountered oil shows in one of four zones led to a 17% fall in the share price to 278p/share, an eight-month low, and 45% below last year's high. Our core NAV for Sea Lion is 402p/share, with a further 92p/share of cash, giving a total of 494p. Moreover if we assume an oil price of $85/barrel rather than $70, we get to a total NAV of around 630p/share. With the shares trading at less than half of this, the market seems to be taking the view that even the base case of 170m barrels of oil is under threat
NH This seems harsh given that a CPR conservatively estimated those reserves, with an upside of 242m barrels based on drilling to date. I suspect a bigger factor in the fall has been a recent general waning of enthusiasm for the E&P sector following a series of exploration disappointments - DES, HOIL, GPX, PMO, NPE etc. Moreover one of the other big drivers for the sector last year was a rising oil price, whilst with Brent currently trading close to $100/barrel, the upside looks limited. The next RKH well is 2.3 kilometre step-out appraisal, also containing some risk, which should complete next month. Thereafter we expect to see at least three low-risk appraisal/development wells on Sea Lion that should prove up commerciality. By the end of the year I therefore think it is reasonable to expect a share price in the 500-700p range, hence I'd consider current levels an extremely attractive entry point.

NH 500p-700p
NH bullish stuff

BE (And thanks, since I know they will be reading, to the Rockhopper bulletin board types to highlight the editing error that took out the words "a well at" from Saturday's paper. Sorry. Corrected.)
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silversurfer said:
Puntland is stuck on the coast, no land based borders with friendly countries. I presume the pirates would let the oil through if their tribal leaders are already getting 50%


CNR found 6.63 grams of gold per ton. I believe the average for a mine is like 1g
Already worked out on the weekend Fridays low price was a good place to buy, tad too late :o. Still looking for that to be support, I think the chart looks ok for a rise and it reminds me of the lull RRL had so lets see how that goes

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...the-surface-of-el-rodeo-concession-25490.html


Good note Kingy, makes a nice difference from 'I reckon they going up'







Seems fair reasoning, Georgia has a big pipeline through it and is close to two major markets. I hope 30 would be a underestimate, oil should stay high and currencies weak and hopefully costs low. We've not heard much trouble in that region for a while?

Somalia is a wild remote challenging problem, they better find tons there or it'll not be worth it. It cant be refined locally. Look at Nigeria for possible outcomes I think
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Aye CNR is a screaming buy at that price IMO, very very high grades of gold, and they are not even in what they think is the richest zone yet. I think this is the calm before the storm and would expect to see it testing the late 2010 highs within a couple of months.

All IMO, etc
 
aardvark said:
anybody who listens to ft alphaville needs their head tested imo - they are both morons.
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I think they shorted GKP at 14p. However they did make money doing so and closed it before the obvious rise we have now



djcj said:
Just bought £2.5k worth of rkh, completely nieve punt based on info in this thread. Hope I don't lose it all lol
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I'd have scaled in personally. Not been a fan of big buys since 2008 :o

Think I'll wait

RRL is at 5 day average price, if that should not hold downside (yet still bullish) targets would be 12.6 11.35 and 8 would be a complete lack of follow through, very unusual
This is not a low volume sell off, its way above average but slightly less so then the rise I think

China trade surplus drops as imports rise
The trade surplus fell from $13.1bn in December to $6.5bn last month, the lowest in nine months, as a result of stronger-than-expected imports
http://link.ft.com/r/3JFELL/EWCX2M/RUSJO/40UA94/3ORBFK/XL/h?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=14
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Good news
 
Over 4% increase in ARM so far today !!!! Good times ahead I hope despite the big director sells last week.

Glad I stuck it out some more.
 
I had £300 of VAL up over 200% today, visa bill paid off so im happy!

They relesased a home testing kit for the clap and i made money from it :D

Been sitting on CNR since november bout same entry price as it is now, good prospects just waiting for rise, got a lot more in that one, considering RKH
 
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Ace T said:
Over 4% increase in ARM so far today !!!! Good times ahead I hope despite the big director sells last week.

Glad I stuck it out some more.
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Yep ARM keep surprising me. They've had a good trend for a long time so bought in on the mid-long term. The pace has gone up quite a bit even just the last few weeks and months. I'm currently up 25% on them.
 
Dr House said:
Big day for Yell and BARC tomorrow which are my 2 big holdings.

I have not been doing well at all. I am around 27k down at the moment.
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Genuine question, as this is something that's always puzzled me...

Do you think that Yell and Barclays represent the best risk/reward for your circumstances?
 
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