Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Perfect end to a perfect week, I think a beer or twelve is required tonight. I'd be willing to bet a lot of other PIs are doing the same after the abysmal week we endured!
 
Rough week ahead again I suspect - Sold FTSE 100 (using IGIndex) before start of trading, 5 mins after opening - banked 30% profit after FTSE plummeted on opening. Same with BP.
 
booyaka said:
Rough week ahead again I suspect - Sold FTSE 100 (using IGIndex) before start of trading, 5 mins after opening - banked 30% profit after FTSE plummeted on opening. Same with BP.
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Stay short for the next 6 months-year, the true bottom isn't in yet.

We had a drop from DOW 14300 to 6700 (i trade the US only, no stamp duty) then back up to 11300, I believe this time round we will see DOW at 5000 or less (similar % drop for the FTSE).

I'll oversimplify...
We averted a major worldwide depression 1930s style by printing money. The global economies started growing again after this huge cash injection, so what we saw was "fake" GDP growth round the world. We are now seeing signs of the real state of the global economy, consequently stockmarkets are beginning to respond. We not only have to contend with the economic contraction, but we now have vast deficits by bailing out private banks with public money.
 
What's the deal with MTA then?

Is it worth throwing some spare cash into them at some point? Are they likely to recover (if only we had a crystal ball eh?)?
 
The global economies started growing again after this huge cash injection, so what we saw was "fake" GDP growth round the world. We are now seeing signs of the real state of the global economy, consequently stockmarkets are beginning to respond. We not only have to contend with the economic contraction, but we now have vast deficits by bailing out private banks with public money.
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Vast deficits, yes. For the moment. But expansionary fiscal policy can always be reversed by the same process. (Reducing the money supply, increasing taxes, decreasing government spending)

So we didn't see fake GDP growth. There is no such thing. We saw temporary growth financed by increasing public debt, that in my opinion was necessary to restore business confidence - which is one of the determinant factors of future investment and growth.

Once business confidence has been restored, the expansionary fiscal policy can be retracted and the increased confidence of firms should allow the economy to continue to grow from the increased investment in labour and capital.

What the stockmarkets are now responding to is contagion within the Euro zone which is a completely seperate matter.
 
It is oversold as of right now, the true value is about 2.5-3p so i expect it to correct up to that in the next couple of months, they didn't hit a dry hole, the did find oil, just not as much as they wanted, people went into a crazy panic!
 
Tempted but as already pointed out I have no real clue so will stick to watching (watching what I could have earned lol).

What do we think BP is like for an investment? Obviously not the best time at the moment but for the future.
 
Saetia said:
So we didn't see fake GDP growth. There is no such thing.
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Semantics. A massive expansion of public debt -- which cannot be paid off and requires eternally expanding GPD to justify it -- has been used to paper over a whole variety of financial disasters and recessions over the last 15 years or so.

We are entering the endgame for this experiment in Keynesian roulette... which is like Russian roulette, only all the chambers have bullets in. ;-)

I look forward to an eventual return to honest economics, though I am not looking forward to the process of getting there.

Andrew McP
 
We are entering the endgame for this experiment in Keynesian roulette... which is like Russian roulette, only all the chambers have bullets in. ;-)
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:rolleyes: :p

which cannot be paid off and requires eternally expanding GPD to justify it -- has been used to paper over a whole variety of financial disasters and recessions over the last 15 years or so.
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When a deflationary gap occurs it makes sense to close it using discretionary fiscal policy.

I look forward to an eventual return to honest economics, though I am not looking forward to the process of getting there.
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What do you mean by honest economics?

Because the treasury view and classical economics simply do not hold during a severe recession. Despite some instances during the current recession of nominal wage cuts, it is reasonable to assume that almost all wages still remain stickey (Due to law, contracts, unions. etc)

It is also reasonable to assume that even if people accept wage cuts during a recession, the reduction in aggregate demand would further undermine business confidence, prolonging the recession.

If the market is not able to clear autonomously then intervention through fiscal policy is the necessary course of action.
 
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I was looking into some other oil companies, this can't be right?.......right?????

Shell Oil RDSA

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They pay £27 per share, per quarter?

So if i move my money out of MTA and into shell oil before the end of June i get a couple of grand??? That can't be right
 
I doubt you would get a payment unless you have been invested in the company during the period the dividend payment covers, or thats my take on it anyways based on my share ownership in the company i work for.
 
robgmun said:
I was looking into some other oil companies, this can't be right?.......right?????

Shell Oil RDSA

*image removed*

They pay £27 per share, per quarter?

So if i move my money out of MTA and into shell oil before the end of June i get a couple of grand??? That can't be right
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You are not right.
Its 27pence or £0.27. It says it in the image and anywhere else you would look the dividend up.
 
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