Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
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Google dollar surge and lots of recent articles will come up
Wouldn't call it lots, it seems to be the same article recycled in three newspapers and most recent is Sept 4 and then nothing recent (in economic terms).
With Apple's share price falling after it announced a delay in the delivery of the iPhone X such that sales won't be counted in this year's financials, is now a good time to buy Apple stock? I would expect that once it is available and millions of orders are put in for Christmas the share price is going to continue its previous upwards trend. Thoughts?
no, if they're denominated in USD (and if USD increases in value) then it will generally be beneficial to you if your base currency is GBP and your (long USD)position is unhedged. Suppose they just go up/down as you say to the extent that you don't really make any money in USD terms (the gains roughly match the losses) you've still profited in GBP terms thanks to the dollar increasing in value.
But unless you have a significant number of shares, say a 10% rise in stock price is likely to yield a greater amount of profit going at the current USD/GBP rate than the stock dropping 10% but the exchange rate being better.
What you said can work but i'd rather take advantage of a 10% stock rise than the potential of a small increase in currency exchange.
but we're not talking about a small increase in the currency, the condition we are discussing is the claim by the other poster that there will be a USD rally (though perhaps slightly ambiguous I'd not interpret a 'rally' as being a small increase)
Yes but he stated he is getting shares through work and was wondering whether to sell or hold onto them. As I said there would likely be more profit if the particular share jumped 10% rather than waiting for a USD rally that may or may not happen, the increase in the stock price would like exceed any currency conversion profits.
Well then you're changing the conversation, I was commenting (as you seemed to be previously) based on a USD rally occurring (this is what was proposed by the other poster), I'm not claiming that it will happen but my comment is made conditional on it happening if it doesn't happen then that is another matter.
Not gonna lie I don't know what conversation you were having then
I was talking about the question dellta0 asked where he mentions he has some US tech shares and if it was worth sitting on waiting for a dollar strength increase. As I said if his stock has a 5-10% jump that is likely to generate more profits than waiting to see if the dollar rises, which if it does there is just as much chance of his stocks going down however many % which would erase any dollar rise. Not many stocks i've seen tend to just go up because their base currency is strong.
Soldato
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One of my funds is in the Japanese market (the Man GLG Japan CoreAlpha fund to be specific), it's one of the riskier ones I'm in as the annual % historically has been anything from 4 to 40%, and it's volatile as hell at the moment; it's swing over 3% in the last 24h alone. I'm tempted to get out of it and put the funds into an S&P500 instead, the only reason for Japan was to spread the funds more globally (I'm in some Europe, UK, Latin Ameria etc funds as well), but does anyone have some summarised links/thoughts on the Japanese markets?
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Japan is interesting to say the least. I'd do some more research as school of thought in some circles is very much in one direction..
Soldato
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Sterling breaking out is my guess, it did attempt this early August though. Initial target is 1.4 just based on old lows. Judge strength then based on how it acts at that point, with so much mess on brexit I have zero faith tbh but perhaps the anticipated negativity is played out
Not bullish for stocks afaik but most commodity stocks arent even based here anyway so its just a play on numbers. Gold itself is also supposedly bullish, which makes sense in line with Dollar far weaker in 2017 then originally projected. Overall for years to come, I dont expect the FED to reasonably beat inflation in dollar, or curtail QE or aggressively raise rates. That realisation by the market is tradable?
Not sure crypto is a crash its just lopsided and unstable 90% of trade is China based who arent friendly but overall YTD Im not yet guessing its a crash. 2500 euro would match the scale of the last reset
Not bullish for stocks afaik but most commodity stocks arent even based here anyway so its just a play on numbers. Gold itself is also supposedly bullish, which makes sense in line with Dollar far weaker in 2017 then originally projected. Overall for years to come, I dont expect the FED to reasonably beat inflation in dollar, or curtail QE or aggressively raise rates. That realisation by the market is tradable?
Not sure crypto is a crash its just lopsided and unstable
90% of trade is China based who arent friendly but overall YTD Im not yet guessing its a crash. 2500 euro would match the scale of the last reset
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Not gonna lie I don't know what conversation you were having then
I was talking about the question dellta0 asked where he mentions he has some US tech shares and if it was worth sitting on waiting for a dollar strength increase. As I said if his stock has a 5-10% jump that is likely to generate more profits than waiting to see if the dollar rises, which if it does there is just as much chance of his stocks going down however many % which would erase any dollar rise. Not many stocks i've seen tend to just go up because their base currency is strong.
I think that is where the misunderstanding is, the stock doesn't need to go up if the base currency of the stock rallies relative to the base currency of the holder of that stock then they profit from that base currency move even if the stock remains flat. You said that it makes little difference to individual stocks but that is besides the point if there is a dollar rally then of course holding USD denominated stocks is usually going to be beneficial in addition to any gains you may get from the movement in those stocks themselves. You're both long those stocks and long USD... being long USD when USD rallies well... (again I'm not saying it will)