Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Finally oh finally the wheels have come off the one trick pony apple. I' ssurprised myself it had taken this long. Kind of puts into perspective expert 'ratings'. Why were all the ratings so high when the smartphone market is stagnating, economic slowdown is occurring etc etc.
Amazon and Microsoft for example are much more diverse.

Expect to see more downward momentum mid term. Now below Google in market cap
 
Is it a one trick pony, I dont especially like Apple but I think the edge they have is real. It is a premium product though so relies on positive world gdp growth, China long term has a declining working population and challenges from misallocation
I still expect Tesla to be falling more, or is still commanding too much of a premium relative to working assets. AMD was most improved in 2018 out of all the tech apparently, I dont even follow their shares from a while back as they were erratic and unbalanced

AAPL falling to 129 would be good and perhaps even a good hold for yield then depending how negative people are on market outlook overall but AAPL is large part of SP500 index I think. I would guess this year is a bearish stage to the market. I'm posting because of this video, seems a big voice for sentiment and also USA jobs today was a surprise to the upside that is useful for gauging determination in the market .
Investor Steve Eisman, portrayed by Steve Carell in "The Big Short," says he doesn't see any serious signs of a coming economic downturn.
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https://www.cnn.com/videos/business...nn-business/video/playlists/business-economy/

subprime car loans not the problem expected previously, consumer debt best he ever seen etc.

I think currency will keep being weak, which I guess helps debt. I would like oil to recover but I dont think it will return anywhere near highs, which ties into global growth not being as good as it could be
 
Theres a couple forms to fill out otherwise they'll tax you fully both in usa and here. But even Halifax will trade US stock for you, its not that special a deal just the question of fees and forex costs also, watch that. Australia on the other hand is a pain, if anyone know a cheap broker for that I'd like to know?
I sold my Randgold stock because I didnt want them to give me Barrick gold shares instead, I never owned tons of it though it could do well probably will be a fortunate merger but its a slight hassle. I own PSX with a broker that only used to charge 5 quid for trading, they since changed their fees though and I was grandfathered in luckily

Actually I would just use a spreadbet account also thats classed as betting and no worries on CGT, but this also can be weird because the figure is in theory dollar but its cashed in gbp which means you are in a currency hedge also. I think some unit trusts operate this way, neptune japan is hedged to GBP as he thinks its the YEN which will evaporate. Very ironic as YEN is often strong in sell offs and we know how sterling has been in brexit so far, Japan owns a trillion in US treasuries so I wonder how that will go in a landslide

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Anyway just posting this from seekingalpha on apple which is probably correct, short spy but long apple would probably be the right balance
 
Using spread betting to actively trade US stocks is a rather bad idea, it is going to be far more expensive. GCT isn't exactly something to worry about tbh... worry more about making money in the first place!
 
moon man said:
bought 1k of patagonia gold at 1p
53p now
really blew it could have nade a decent amount ,consolidation so im 50 percent down ,in a way im not too bothered as my instincts were correct but i just got greedy ,just going to hang on ,if i lose it i lose it
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Just to quote my post from a couple of weeks back and I'm back in potential profit now that's the. Fun of shares I suppose . Helps if your prepared to lose the lot
 
Haven't posted here in a while because I haven't been actively trading, just holding, but I think it's important to post when times are bad and neutral, not just when they're good!

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Half of those I've held since Sep 17, the rest Sep 18. I would be down if it wasn't for big prior gains in the former; at one point S&P and Global Smaller Companies were both up 25%+. Before I bought into the other half the whole portfolio was up about 15%, despite Latin American being down 25% at that point. Still, basically after 2 years, pretty much even, which is certainly no bad thing, but equally nothing to scream about.
 
ty for the update. Well done for sticking with it. Are you paying in regularly, or just when you feel like it, or not at all? Are you happy with your choices or considering any changes?

I sold when it started going red a few months back, which basically resulted in breaking even and prevented subsequent loss, so I'm cool with that. I also learnt that I really hate having a delay between when I choose to sell and when the funds are actually sold, it was about 3 days. If/when I get back into it I'll give serious thought to buying individual stocks for better control. I'll be made redundant in the next year or two so having cash temporarily is good for my stress levels. I might also move house depending on the job situation, so that might eat up all my money (if I stay south) or free up a load (if I move north).
 
Russinating said:
Haven't posted here in a while because I haven't been actively trading, just holding, but I think it's important to post when times are bad and neutral, not just when they're good!
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Good on you! Reassuring to know that there's at least one member of the forum who isn't making £3,000 a month through spread betting or making a fortune by buying shares in PC component manufacturers :)

I haven't looked at mine for a few months, as it is actively managed. But I guessed it might be suffering just looking at the stock market performance and, sure enough, a few days ago I got the dreaded Mifid II letter through the door, confirming that my portfolio had dropped by more than 10% over the last reporting quarter (this is a thing, btw).

It happens.
 
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Absolutely. It's why you have to take more than a pinch of salt with any positive stories. Not saying they're lying, but people rarely post thetnon-positives (why would you, really), which there will be.

I've got a friend of a friend who I used to speak to quite often who was definitely up 80-100k at the peak of bitcoin etc. Haven't spoken to him in a while but I know he was holding and I wouldn't be surprised if he's come out down if he ever doubled up. Not like he'd tell me in the same way, though.
 
Rebalancing? theres some good policy for diversifying gains that would help even with Bitcoin, a lot of things go up more then they deserve. To avoid becoming top heavy the idea is to spread gains, seems smart. A link I found on google which is roughly what I mean https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/investing/rebalance-portfolio-strategies/

I switched some virtual currency to gold because I think that'll come around with currencies weak (hence why BTC is far above where I'd expect even after its fall) and I see them as opposite, some people somehow compare bitcoin and gold as the same which cant be right. Both inverse to dollar maybe otherwise no

My smaller oil fund is not good but the manager does have the sense to own FPM which is about to be taken over it seems. However Im not happy about that as the ideal price was maybe double from here, they are buying it cheap. DNO is the company, guess they smart worth a look but its listed overseas. PMG rose a lot recently. very risky and PMO is a general barometer for smaller oil I think

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Some good commentary on Lloyds by an international fund which somehow owns it as its second largest holding - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/david-herros-4th-quarter-oakmark-202442124.html
I have to sell Lloy but I will re-accumulate it as well as within ftse fund
 
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Looking to open a Vanguard account and start doing some small investments.

First, is Vanguard uk site the one to use?

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk

as opposed to the .com site.

secondly, which one do most people go for in terms of index fund for the average 8% return, the low risk return. I take it the LifeStrategy Equity Fund is the one to go for? What is the percentage spread people typically go for? 80/20 Stocks/bond spread or other?

I want to start small and dip my toes into it, not looking for short term gain but more a retirement fund.

Thanks
 
@Raymond Lin
Yes that's the right link.
Vanguard is a good choice because it has low fees. Note that there's a delay when you buy and sell, it can take a few days, that can be really annoying if you don't expect it.
LifeStrategy 60/40 is most popular, generally it relates to age as you get older you want more bonds and fewer stocks. They have products which tweak this ratio automatically over time given your target retirement date.
LifeStrategy does have a UK bias, if that concerns you, the workaround is here: https://www.reddit.com/r/UKPersonalFinance/wiki/globaltracker
 
Raymond Lin said:
Looking to open a Vanguard account and start doing some small investments.

First, is Vanguard uk site the one to use?

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk

as opposed to the .com site.

secondly, which one do most people go for in terms of index fund for the average 8% return, the low risk return. I take it the LifeStrategy Equity Fund is the one to go for? What is the percentage spread people typically go for? 80/20 Stocks/bond spread or other?

I want to start small and dip my toes into it, not looking for short term gain but more a retirement fund.

Thanks
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Yeah that's the one. .com is US based.

Vanguard are apparently doing a SIPP 'soon' so might be worth looking out for that if you're definitely going for a retirement fund rather than an ISA.


Have a read of some articles on Monevator.

https://monevator.com/index-investing/

Vanguard Lifestrategy - https://monevator.com/using-vanguard-lifestrategy-funds-life/

Vanguard Target Retirement - https://monevator.com/vanguard-target-retirement-funds/


Then are pros and cons for each, target retirement is fully automated. But you can of course manage Lifestrategy funds or a general portfolio to be more weighten towards bonds as you're closer to retirement. Just have a general read of Monevator it's a great resource.

Jack Bogle the founder of Vanguard sadly passed away a few days a go. He was the father of the index fund. This weekends past article and it's very good. https://monevator.com/weekend-reading-the-house-that-jack-built/

Bogleheads is a great resource for index funds - https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/UK_investing (clue is in the name of who It's after). The forum is many US focused though.

The Personal Finance subreddit is good too.
 
NVP said:
If you have a feeling about the long-term future of a company and wish to invest in shares but have never done anything previously... who would you use/how would you go about it?

Thanks
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Not sure if anyone replied to this? I'd look at getting a broker account setup, personally. For quickness you can probably use your bank, especially if you don't intend to get into investing in other companies.
Hargreaves Lansdown and YouInvest are a few I recommend. YouInvest is I think cheaper for shares. Ideally use an ISA so your profits and dividends will be tax free. Both of these companies and others offer Stock ISA's (you buy and sell shares yourself from within the ISA)
Have a good look around. I invest in both shares and funds. Funds can be good for beginners as a relatively small amount of money (like £500-even 5000) could be invested in a number of companies by the fund, something you wouldn't really want to do yourself with such as small amount as it would be costly.
 
billysielu said:
@Raymond Lin
Yes that's the right link.
Vanguard is a good choice because it has low fees. Note that there's a delay when you buy and sell, it can take a few days, that can be really annoying if you don't expect it.
LifeStrategy 60/40 is most popular, generally it relates to age as you get older you want more bonds and fewer stocks. They have products which tweak this ratio automatically over time given your target retirement date.
LifeStrategy does have a UK bias, if that concerns you, the workaround is here: https://www.reddit.com/r/UKPersonalFinance/wiki/globaltracker
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Thanks.

As I want to feel my way around first, if i select just to put in a single payment today, can I change that to a direct debit later on? and also add additional one off payments any time of my choosing?

Also, if I select a target retirement fund, say if I pick 25 years from now, at 2045, can I change the date to say 2040 later on ?
 
Raymond Lin said:
Thanks.

As I want to feel my way around first, if i select just to put in a single payment today, can I change that to a direct debit later on? and also add additional one off payments any time of my choosing?

Also, if I select a target retirement fund, say if I pick 25 years from now, at 2045, can I change the date to say 2040 later on ?
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Minimum investment are here - https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/need-help/answer/whats-the-minimum-investment-amount

I don't use Vanguard platform, but Fidelity and you can change the direct debit at will each month.

The Target Retirement are separate funds. So you'd need to sell some and then reinvest. Or invest in something else, say an equity only fund if you wanted more equities. The target retirement basically increase bond holdings % closer to the target date.
 
Raymond Lin said:
As I want to feel my way around first, if i select just to put in a single payment today, can I change that to a direct debit later on? and also add additional one off payments any time of my choosing?
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Pretty confident you can pay whatever whenever yes.

Raymond Lin said:
Also, if I select a target retirement fund, say if I pick 25 years from now, at 2045, can I change the date to say 2040 later on ?
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Think so. I'd expect it to be like selling a fund to redirect the money into a different fund.
Might be worth a phonecall to double check, their call center is decent.
 
Cheers, just put in £500 for now to open the account. I have been meaning to do this for over a year. Much easier than I thought.

Picked the Target Retirement Fund, thought i let it do its thing and I am just investing.
 
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