Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[silversurfer]

^^10,000th post of the thread. sounds like you already won a prize

When they rise this much, you can do both. Take profits, even to the amount of returning all the original capital and still being invested. Tesla was not a small or lowly rated company at the start of the year and its doubled, I think extreme pricing is about hot money and weak currency policy. Did they genuinely advance efficiency over competitors and expand margins.
If I return in a year, would short TSLA long APPL have been a good arbitrage. Reminds me briefly of VW when it was shorted but then became the largest company in the world on the short spike.
Bears, shorts, sceptics & the risk adverse might eventually consider everything priced in gold then we'd have a meta change but thats simplistic

 

[413x]

I didn't do it.
Decided that much of an increase was an over bought.

Glad I didn't.

 

[TangoEchoAlpha]

About a month. Same logic as Tesla though, invested in something I'm interested in and staying for the long haul

Hopefully a good investment given recent media coverage of healthier diets and the impact of meat on the environment.

 

[Skillmister]

I didn't do it.
Decided that much of an increase was an over bought.

Glad I didn't.

I so nearly sold yesterday.

Oh well. I said I'd hold so I'm holding. See you all in a few weeks/months when it's going crazy again!

 

[The_Abyss]

The last 48 hours posting in this thread are a great example of how many people think that they're informed and can't avoid making a profit. FOMO.

#Tesla

 

[413x]

The last 48 hours posting in this thread are a great example of how many people think that they're informed and can't avoid making a profit. FOMO.

#Tesla

Tesla is still probe to rise again, but I guess it rose too fast. The correction has almost pulled back to that steady increase point.

 

[Skillmister]

The last 48 hours posting in this thread are a great example of how many people think that they're informed and can't avoid making a profit. FOMO.

#Tesla

Not at all. Maybe if people had invested in the last 48 hours but I can't see anyone posting that they have?

I didn't empty my ISA (which ironically while Tesla was shooting up in the last week dropped from 11% to 9.5%) into Tesla because I know I'm not informed enough to do something like that.

Quite easy to make those comments when anything drops though right? #hindsight

 

[booyaka]

The last 48 hours posting in this thread are a great example of how many people think that they're informed and can't avoid making a profit. FOMO.

#Tesla

I don't think anyone is claiming easy profits or anything, I was simply posting to show the crazy price of Tesla and rise of the share price. No one has a crystal ball.

 

[Russinating]

Yeah this thread is usually reasonably sensible. I said it elsewhere that it rose too fast for me - totally personally - as I was hoping to re-invest in the next tax year, so glad it's dropped back a bit more sensibly. Still 51% up on my holding and I only invested in Jan so I'd be happy if it dropped back to sub 400!

I'm on a Tesla owners forum and it's funny/scary how people get carried away somewhere like that with very little/zero investment experience.

 

[Skillmister]

I'm on a Tesla owners forum and it's funny/scary how people get carried away somewhere like that with very little/zero investment experience.

Get on /r/wallstreetbets if you want to both laugh and cry. There's a guy on YouTube that runs through the numbers of some of the best/worst ever trades on there. Some people literally made millions off total gambles then held and lost it all. Madness!

 

[TangoEchoAlpha]

So I have only recently started inversting with Trading 212, thought I'd share what I've got in my portfolio, largest investment to smallest and my rationale as to why I bought them. I have tried to only invest in something that I understand the product or service and can understand the market they work in. For that reason, I've shyed away from things like pharmaceuticals. Comments/observations from more experienced people welcome!

• AMD - for obvious reasons. I think the impact of Ryzen and Epyc is yet to be truly felt and think there's potential for much more gains, especially if Epyc's inroad into the enterprise space continues and Ryzen can get into more system integrator laptops. I like Lisa Su, think she's very switched on and in it to turn AMD around. The fact they are making inroads into their debt as well, I'm hopeful on them.

• Diageo - owns Guinness and a lot of spirit brands, both high end and lower end. From what I understand, their dividends are quite good and they seem to be riding the recent gin craze well. Personally I feel this is a good investment regardless of the economy - people will always want to enjoy alcohol, whether at home or out. I intend to invest more in them.

• BP - partly as a bit of diversification and because I see them as not totally dependent upon oil, with interests in gas as well. Considering how they survived the Deepwater Horizon disaster, the fact there's a new CEO who is perhaps going to be more sympathetic to ESG concerns, they pay out dividends consistently - went for them and likely to invest more in them.

• BMW AG - where I live the infrastructure for charging electric cars is improving - from shopping centre car parks, to park and rides, they have charging points. In fact, my local Tesco Extra put in charging points in their car park recently. I see quite a few BMW i3s around and personally think BMW may do well out of electric cars in the future. Given the government want to go electric cars, getting rid of new hybrids and petrol/diesel cars by 2035, I went for BMW as opposed to Tesla - it just seemed a safer bet.

• ITV - again, a bit of diversification and hope that it's a safe long term investment. I think the risk here is that they suffer some scandals such as high profile presenters getting done for drink driving or another Jeremy Kyle type incident - plus the fact that if there's a downturn, traditional advertising might take a hit. But I do like the fact that they are aware of the fact that Netflix etc is a threat by investing in their own content and online services.

• NVidia - for obvious reasons really. The risk here is another RTX20 series type release and a backlash from customers refusing to pay for their products at the high end. But with no competition really, I went for them. Clearly the home gamer GPU products are a really small part of their business. I am excited about how GeForce Now will work out and think that could be a growth area for them. In fact, I think they may stand to ride off the back of Stadia with an arguably better product, but perhaps less accessible than Stadia to your average man on the street.

There we go. The only stock I am in any way considering shorting is AMD; I think the others are a longer term investment for me.

 

[Bounce]

So I have only recently started inversting with Trading 212, thought I'd share what I've got in my portfolio, largest investment to smallest and my rationale as to why I bought them. I have tried to only invest in something that I understand the product or service and can understand the market they work in. For that reason, I've shyed away from things like pharmaceuticals. Comments/observations from more experienced people welcome!

• AMD - for obvious reasons. I think the impact of Ryzen and Epyc is yet to be truly felt and think there's potential for much more gains, especially if Epyc's inroad into the enterprise space continues and Ryzen can get into more system integrator laptops. I like Lisa Su, think she's very switched on and in it to turn AMD around. The fact they are making inroads into their debt as well, I'm hopeful on them.

• Diageo - owns Guinness and a lot of spirit brands, both high end and lower end. From what I understand, their dividends are quite good and they seem to be riding the recent gin craze well. Personally I feel this is a good investment regardless of the economy - people will always want to enjoy alcohol, whether at home or out. I intend to invest more in them.

• BP - partly as a bit of diversification and because I see them as not totally dependent upon oil, with interests in gas as well. Considering how they survived the Deepwater Horizon disaster, the fact there's a new CEO who is perhaps going to be more sympathetic to ESG concerns, they pay out dividends consistently - went for them and likely to invest more in them.

• BMW AG - where I live the infrastructure for charging electric cars is improving - from shopping centre car parks, to park and rides, they have charging points. In fact, my local Tesco Extra put in charging points in their car park recently. I see quite a few BMW i3s around and personally think BMW may do well out of electric cars in the future. Given the government want to go electric cars, getting rid of new hybrids and petrol/diesel cars by 2035, I went for BMW as opposed to Tesla - it just seemed a safer bet.

• ITV - again, a bit of diversification and hope that it's a safe long term investment. I think the risk here is that they suffer some scandals such as high profile presenters getting done for drink driving or another Jeremy Kyle type incident - plus the fact that if there's a downturn, traditional advertising might take a hit. But I do like the fact that they are aware of the fact that Netflix etc is a threat by investing in their own content and online services.

• NVidia - for obvious reasons really. The risk here is another RTX20 series type release and a backlash from customers refusing to pay for their products at the high end. But with no competition really, I went for them. Clearly the home gamer GPU products are a really small part of their business. I am excited about how GeForce Now will work out and think that could be a growth area for them. In fact, I think they may stand to ride off the back of Stadia with an arguably better product, but perhaps less accessible than Stadia to your average man on the street.

There we go. The only stock I am in any way considering shorting is AMD; I think the others are a longer term investment for me.

Looking at your portfolio, its well diversified, apart from having both Nvidia and AMD - In some ways you've just placed bets on both sides which doesn't make much sense imo.

I don't know much about American listed stocks as I solely invest in the FTSE, so I'm only going to comment on the FTSE stocks...

Diageo - Over priced in my opinion, trades on P/E of 25, whereas the ftse average is around 15, which indicates the stock is currently overpriced.

BP - Massive debt, and more of a dividend payer than anything else.

ITV - Revenue down this year, but could end up being a good recovery play. As you mention Netflix are a threat and other streaming services, its a very competitive industry.

Personally I wouldn't of invested in any of these companies as I only look at financial fundamentals, but every investor has a different strategy.

 

[TangoEchoAlpha]

@Bounce - thanks, appreciate the observations. Don't think that I would be looking for many more stocks to invest in, maybe one or two but equally am spread thin already, until I start ramping up the money I am putting in. Any FTSE 100 companies that you'd recommend I take a look at and research?

As for AMD and NVidia - I appreciate in some ways it was betting on both sides, but I was also thinking AMD are really putting the screws to Intel, rather than to NVidia. NVidia I think are worthwhile given their interests outside of desktop GPUs, but I am sure time and hindsight will tell!

 

[Bounce]

@Bounce - thanks, appreciate the observations. Don't think that I would be looking for many more stocks to invest in, maybe one or two but equally am spread thin already, until I start ramping up the money I am putting in. Any FTSE 100 companies that you'd recommend I take a look at and research?

As for AMD and NVidia - I appreciate in some ways it was betting on both sides, but I was also thinking AMD are really putting the screws to Intel, rather than to NVidia. NVidia I think are worthwhile given their interests outside of desktop GPUs, but I am sure time and hindsight will tell!

I mainly invest in smaller stocks in the FTSE 250.

But having a quick look at the FTSE 100, Legal and General would probably suit my investment strategy and is worth a look imo.

Looking at the half year report in August 2019

Low P/E ratio of around 10.
Operating profit is up 11%
5% dividend yield.

Continually has been making solid profits year on year (good sign).

 

[TangoEchoAlpha]

@Bounce - cheers, I will take a look. Was shying away from financials such as Aviva, L&G etc as I don't really understand them. Think if I was to look at a financial type stock, I'd probably be more inclined to research something like Visa and invest if I felt they were worthwhile....

 

[Russinating]

@TangoEchoAlpha

If there was any of those I'd consider myself it'd be AMD, but Intel is still a force. I don't know too much about them or nVidia to comment really.

Diageo, maybe, but not for me. A lot of the upsurge in gin etc has gone to smaller, craft brew houses, same with other alcohol types/brands. There's a great quote from one of the Google founders, "if you want mustard sales to increase give out free hot dogs", and the same applies to this industry when you look at Fever Tree. Their share price has consistently dropped over the last year and I see that as a reflection on the gin side in particular.

BP, meh. There's a big push from everyone to clean energy and EVs and I don't know how much they're doing or can do on that front. Probably will be profitable for ages but not for me.

ITV, wouldn't touch with a barge pole. Younger generations are every customer's next audience and they don't touch terrestrial TV. Even personally I never watch it. That combined with one of their advertising streams being advertising, that's a very quick and easy thing to lose overnight once brands put budget into other forms of advertising, which they're doing already.

 

[The_Abyss]

I don't think anyone is claiming easy profits or anything, I was simply posting to show the crazy price of Tesla and rise of the share price. No one has a crystal ball.

My comments were far from aimed at you, as you're also professionally qualified and rational. This thread is normally pretty quiet, but the past few days have seen feverish posting in comparison, weighing in to Tesla, how can I open an account at XYZ fly by night broker, how can I trade US shares etc. Classic signs of herd mentality from people who hadn't considered the investment before it began a meteoric rise.

That is not rational investing - that was my point. It was greed / fear of missing out on a good thing, which rarely ends well.

 

[uncle_rufus]

That is not rational investing - that was my point. It was greed / fear of missing out on a good thing, which rarely ends well.

It basically sounded like one of the Crypto threads

 

[booyaka]

It basically sounded like one of the Crypto threads

my thoughts exactly.......

 

[Skillmister]

My comments were far from aimed at you, as you're also professionally qualified and rational. This thread is normally pretty quiet, but the past few days have seen feverish posting in comparison, weighing in to Tesla, how can I open an account at XYZ fly by night broker, how can I trade US shares etc. Classic signs of herd mentality from people who hadn't considered the investment before it began a meteoric rise.

That is not rational investing - that was my point. It was greed / fear of missing out on a good thing, which rarely ends well.

It was literally 3 people, 2 of whom (me and @Russinating) who were already invested. Get off your high horse


"feverish posting" - Otherwise known as a "discussion"