Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Psycho Sonny · 13 Mar 2020 at 14:24

Trusty said:
There's no way we know for certain its a dead cat bounce yet, it most likely is, but it might not be, there's no 100% confirmation of that yet

it is because the worst of it hasn't even happened yet. corona virus is only going to get worse from here on in not better.

unless you know of a working vaccine that will be introduced within the next 2 weeks?

Trusty · 13 Mar 2020 at 14:31

Psycho Sonny said:
it is because the worst of it hasn't even happened yet. corona virus is only going to get worse from here on in not better.

unless you know of a working vaccine that will be introduced within the next 2 weeks?

We don't know whether the market has baked in the worst case scenario already, add that to the stimulus packages that CB's will be implementing to protect financial assets, we can't say for certain that it's a dead cat bounce, not yet anyway. I agree that it's the most likely scenario, but there are still other ways this plays out. It's not 100%

Journey · 13 Mar 2020 at 14:42

FTSE is going to finish flat or +2, don't think anyone wants to be holding the baby come Monday morning.

200sols · 13 Mar 2020 at 14:44

Trusty said:
It's not 100%

Nothing is or we would all be billionaires. But best guess right now says this is going down much more before its over.

SpeedFreak · 13 Mar 2020 at 14:48

Surely the bulk of the impact is now priced into most markets. 30%-40% discount for what could be a year of disruption seems pretty severe.

Journey · 13 Mar 2020 at 14:49

SpeedFreak said:
Surely the bulk of the impact is now priced into most markets. 30%-40% discount for what could be a year of disruption seems pretty severe.

This is only the start, we have literally months of turmoil ahead around the globe.

StriderX · 13 Mar 2020 at 14:50

I think i'm going to leave my speculations at the door for now, but I'd like to know if anyone actually believes that the workers who're about to lose their livelihoods or suffer a great deal, would accept their potential future prosperity again being dragged right into the too-big-to-fail entities by politicians that are already on the edge... again, not exactly out of living memory of the last time.

R.P.L · 13 Mar 2020 at 15:08

StriderX said:
I think i'm going to leave my speculations at the door for now, but I'd like to know if anyone actually believes that the workers who're about to lose their livelihoods or suffer a great deal, would accept their potential future prosperity again being dragged right into the too-big-to-fail entities by politicians that are already on the edge... again, not exactly out of living memory of the last time.

I think that most people probably don't care as long as they get to retire. I agree that we're far too reliant on large corporations, but short-termism rules and that means that we'll just continue to prop them up.

Jono8 · 13 Mar 2020 at 19:59

Lol, the markets are ridiculous . It's now shot up by almost the same 2000 points it lost yesterday, as if everything was better again.

Utterly stupid.

StriderX · 13 Mar 2020 at 20:01

Looks like a helpless market to me. I wonder if they are pricing in a second peak of the virus... doubt it, then again that's a long way off.

Ignoring that, I think the trough will be in April or May.

Jono8 · 13 Mar 2020 at 20:03

Its absurd.

md85 · 13 Mar 2020 at 20:14

The second Trump starts answering questions away from his script the market slowly starts dropping again in after market.

Minusorange · 13 Mar 2020 at 20:14

Jono8 said:
Its absurd.

Why ? Crashes don't just go all the way down to the bottom without retracing

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...ps-tracking-look-out-2020-03-11?mod=home-page

Jono8 · 13 Mar 2020 at 20:26

Minusorange said:
Why ? Crashes don't just go all the way down to the bottom without retracing

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...ps-tracking-look-out-2020-03-11?mod=home-page

10% swing down and up in two days though?

Fusion · 13 Mar 2020 at 20:38

Don’t forget US markets are more heavily overvalued than ours. The FTSE didn’t really reach silly valuation levels.

regulus · 13 Mar 2020 at 21:06

I'm all in now. Even if it drops further, 20% is enough of a discount. 20k into SPY this week and another 5k today. I'm skint, no more dry powder. From next week I'll stop paying attention and just DCA 500 bucks in weekly.

Definitely a hell of a fun ride the past couple of weeks

Minusorange · 14 Mar 2020 at 12:25

Jono8 said:
10% swing down and up in two days though?

Not common but it has happened

Destination · 14 Mar 2020 at 13:44

Minusorange said:
Spain, Germany and France all on the same trajectory of Italy, when they start locking down like Italy I'd imagine the markets are going to be hit even harder than they did off the news of Italy, this is basically the calm before the storm

The markets didn't balk at Italy, they balked when the US realised Trump has absolutely no idea of what is going on, shortly after his we've got 15 and that'll soon be 0 or maybe 1, and instead then asked if a good strong flu shot wouldn't fix it.
That is when the companies who have their own medical consultants and people with actual thinking, they have realised the implication, and everyone started to sell in mass amounts.
Frankly it is utterly amazing the crash didn't happen sooner, and the broken FDA test kits showing zero amounts of virus in US may have been responsible for delay in crash.
It'll continue to drop, likely for weeks, as the smaller business start to self quarantine and fold, and the adverse knock for big business this has.

Minusorange · 14 Mar 2020 at 14:04

Destination said:
The markets didn't balk at Italy, they balked when the US realised Trump has absolutely no idea of what is going on, shortly after his we've got 15 and that'll soon be 0 or maybe 1, and instead then asked if a good strong flu shot wouldn't fix it.
That is when the companies who have their own medical consultants and people with actual thinking, they have realised the implication, and everyone started to sell in mass amounts.
Frankly it is utterly amazing the crash didn't happen sooner, and the broken FDA test kits showing zero amounts of virus in US may have been responsible for delay in crash.
It'll continue to drop, likely for weeks, as the smaller business start to self quarantine and fold, and the adverse knock for big business this has.

So the 8th largest global economy effectively shutting down didn't scare the markets ?
Spain looks to be the going the same way with a lock down on all but essential travel from Monday, 13th largest economy, will be interesting to see the market reaction on Monday

Destination · 14 Mar 2020 at 15:10

Minusorange said:
So the 8th largest global economy effectively shutting down didn't scare the markets ?
Spain looks to be the going the same way with a lock down on all but essential travel from Monday, 13th largest economy, will be interesting to see the market reaction on Monday

It reacted yes, but China the world's second largest economy is coming out of this, and the third largest economy Japan has been neck deep in this for weeks too.
No market reaction, as Trumpy told everyone the US would be fine, and there was nothing to worry about.
Stocks at a high, good time to invest, everything is going sweetly, including his tard son, who directly said to pile money into your 401.
Then the US reaction, and stocks collapsed when the world and particularly the US realised he didn't have a clue what he was talking about.
Crash.