Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

AAZ on the march again! +4/5% in advance of results soon. Barring an utter catastrophe this should be positive. Good entry point today, despite the rise.
 
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I don't get it, people are insane. AAPL are $10 off their high, MSFT $1, many other big tech similar. I know they're "safe" stocks compared to other industries, but we're still in the worst dip since 2008, the highest unemployment levels ever, quarterly earnings down almost across the board, moron for a president etc. I get that we're (they're) in somewhat of a recovery by now (virus wise) but seeing some stocks touching/surpassing their highs seems... odd? I've made a bit of money of the two mentioned so can't complain, but I'm a little surprised to see them continue upwards touching their highs. What am I missing?
 
Interesting tank on AA this morning...

HL confirmed approximately 1/3rd of the GDR Broker Option Shares this morning. 80p. Due 28th May.
 
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I don’t know when you bought in, but this is a long-term hold in my view. There might be short-term pain - in fact there probably will be - but do you have a strong view on the investment case? If yes, you’re investing in the company, rather than trying to time the bottom or top.

So, if you’re panicked, here’s my investment case:

1. Greggs offer cheap products and will survive a recession, if not improve during one.
2. Starbucks, McDonald’s, Costa etc are coming back in short order. Greggs will want to be a part of this, or they’ll lose market share to these players.
3. The cult following of Greggs is intense; people will absolutely still shop there.
4. They may well partner with Just-eat or something to get their products out in other ways.
5. You saw the parties during VE Day right? People do not GAF about social distancing really - are they going to stop going to Greggs? Come on now - they’ll queue outside if they have to.
6. Strong balance sheet and fundamentals.
7. Strong management team.
8. Vegan offerings were killing it before all this, why would you think that wont continue?
9. Somehow they are viewed as a local business despite being national. They are part of the fabric of the HS.
10. They could expand their ranges in Iceland.

The bear case:

1. Fewer people on the HS so fewer sales.
2. People stop liking pies.

Feel free to add more, but I think it’s a pretty strong argument. It likely will go down in short term. But if they announce partnership with Just Eat tomorrow, or that they’ve employed 1000 delivery drivers, or that they’re going to do concessions stands in Tesco, or that they’re opening all their shops and have developed a click and collect app...my money is that you wont get in at the price you got in today.

However, investing is always risky so who really knows.
 
Greggs is a convenience food on the high street, wouldn't be my go to thought when i want something to eat and can they displace the other big delivery players? As you say, who knows though.

Their model is stack them high and sell cheap, not sure how the margin compares to other fast food/ easy food but they wont get the volumes until lockdown ends i imagine. Probably one to watch for a lower entry than now (as you say)
 
I agree, but they’re down what... 20% 30% not sure without looking, but what is the factor to the price going lower? They’ve sold no pies, we know that, so what’s the black swan event? They’ve remained pretty stable at this point, I am not sure what the significant catalyst for decline could be? This is roughly the level they’re trading at for a while now...investors are happy to sell and buy here. Some more happy to buy...:

12-May-2017:06:301,571.002,293Buy*1,557.001,560.00 36.02k
12-May-2017:05:491,560.0786,187Buy*1,557.001,560.00 96.52k
12-May-2016:56:291,569.6461,118Buy*1,557.001,560.00 17.55k
12-May-2016:41:171,566.1141,286Buy*1,557.001,560.00 20.14k
12-May-2016:39:541,560.0012,057Buy*1,557.001,560.00 188.09k

These are open market trades, not the UT, so there’s clearly appetite... Follow the money?
 
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