Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

pallys · 28 May 2020 at 09:06

smokedog said:
People been expecting a crash for awhile and it hasn't happened, market is still going up. Not sure I can see the market crashing now either, what bad news are we expecting that we didn't know already?

Everything is artificially held up at the moment.

Wait till the money printing stops and the furlough scheme is pulled - then everything will unwind.

People forget that the financial crash of 2007 - the bottom was actually March 2009.
When the private investors had lost their shirts walking away vowing never to touch the stock market again...
For now we are in la la land - euphoria.

If one just focuses on the numbers and not sentiment (which changes daily) then this is worse than the Great Depression of 1929.
Recession is coming, though some think a depression is coming but I don't think it will be that bad.
Certainly expecting an approach test of index double bottoms - happens nearly all the time.

At the moment the markets are acting like its sunny 2016 when things were great, its over valued, it's nothing like 2016, its worse than the 2007/2008 crash where now way more ordinary people are affected rather than shareholders in financials.

We are a debt fuelled economy. When the furlough scheme is pulled and jobs are lost people won't have money spend. The other group will be holding onto their cash and not spending like they used to either out of job security fears, not going out as much or getting used to this becoming the new norm.

Skeptic · 28 May 2020 at 09:07

Complete loss of some industries? The big tech companies no longer keeping the S&P500 afloat? Complete change in consumer habits and spending? A second peak? Too much helicopter money? A second peak? Failure across all vaccine trials? Trade war continues with China? I can go on... :eek:

Skeptic · 28 May 2020 at 09:09

Skeptic said:
Top sliced Greggs earlier - a nice little trade and leaving the rest for longer term.

This may have been a mistake! Profits is profits but another lovely start to the day. Damn.

Skeptic · 28 May 2020 at 09:14

AA flying again. I got out at 27p last time it spiked to there. Not saying it can’t go higher, just be mindful of greed and ignore the ramping. People saying 30p plus and/or 50p+ are, in my view, dishonest and they’ll be out way before it gets there.

BennyC · 28 May 2020 at 09:22

Yep, AA, CINE motoring away today.

LLOY the last two/three days has moved from 28p to 32p.

GDR placing shares were issued today too, 1/3rd of the applied for allocation but this is now heading north again @ 170p at time of writing, 140p bottom tested a few times. 290/300p peak on May 5th.

Skeptic · 28 May 2020 at 09:29

Maybe small little punt on Rolls Royce today. Think the drop is overdone.

Skeptic · 28 May 2020 at 09:57

Out of LGEN for a +£400. Divi paid on this coming Monday so probably buy back in after that. Not the greatest trade ever but still

tres · 28 May 2020 at 09:58

Skeptic said:
Maybe small little punt on Rolls Royce today. Think the drop is overdone.

Out of curiosity, what do people consider a "small little punt"?

Skeptic · 28 May 2020 at 10:01

tres said:
Out of curiosity, what do people consider a "small little punt"?

Around 5% of trading portfolio. I believe that figure is usually seen as appropriate. 5% is not enough to break your financial life, but enough to benefit from decent rises. Not advice!

Vanilla · 28 May 2020 at 10:22

Skeptic said:
AA flying again. I got out at 27p last time it spiked to there. Not saying it can’t go higher, just be mindful of greed and ignore the ramping. People saying 30p plus and/or 50p+ are, in my view, dishonest and they’ll be out way before it gets there.

RNS yesterday shows Credit Suisse just went into AA for about 6%, like JPmorgan the day before. Not all down to this - a lot of stocks up large today so there is some general momentum.

Skeptic · 28 May 2020 at 10:47

Feeling that Greggs’ rise is mostly on optimism at the moment. It’s a long term win for sure, but I am thinking of ducking out shortly. Convinced that COVID isn’t dealt with, so perhaps a better opportunity in the future. +20% from buy price is pretty good though.

Skeptic · 28 May 2020 at 10:56

Just sold. Might be a mistake but looking a little frothy imo. That’s me done for the day. GRG sold for +20%, LGEN for +8%.

Current holds: AAZ, GDWN, CAML...and that’s it. Fewest shares I’ve held for a while. Think everybody is getting rather excited. It’s been a good few days, but there’s a lot of risk out there. Those two trades made as much as I earn in a month from my real job, but how can that make sense - Greggs haven’t sold a pie in months!

Of course, I know market is forward looking and so on, but I still think there’s trouble ahead. Will look into new opportunities next week! Cheers all.

Vanilla · 28 May 2020 at 10:58

Skeptic said:
Just sold. Might be a mistake but looking a little frothy imo. That’s me done for the day. GRG sold for +20%, LGEN for +8%.

Current holds: AAZ, GDWN, CAML...and that’s it. Fewest shares I’ve held for a while. Think everybody is getting rather excited. It’s been a good few days, but there’s a lot of risk out there. Those two trades made as much as I earn in a month from my real job, but how can that make sense - Greggs haven’t sold a pie in months!

Of course, I know market is forward looking and so on, but I still think there’s trouble ahead. Will look into new opportunities next week! Cheers all.

Good for you. Getting out with profit is PROFIT even if it turns out to be premature (we've all been there - wondering why we didn't hold). I'm guilty of not setting a target and just holding, then watching it go up, and down, and wondering why I didn't do x or y.

Skeptic · 28 May 2020 at 11:14

Vanilla said:
Good for you. Getting out with profit is PROFIT even if it turns out to be premature (we've all been there - wondering why we didn't hold). I'm guilty of not setting a target and just holding, then watching it go up, and down, and wondering why I didn't do x or y.

FWIW I rode a share up to +£10k, and then watched it all the way down, eventually selling at +£2k, so I know your pain!

Chrisc · 28 May 2020 at 11:16

Has anybody bought into Aston Martin? shares dropped massively when they fired their ceo.

King4aDay · 28 May 2020 at 11:19

Chrisc said:
Has anybody bought into Aston Martin? shares dropped massively when they fired their ceo.

Rose massively you mean? I bought in at 48p so missed the big jump but going nicely since. Think they're probably a LTH for me.

Chrisc · 28 May 2020 at 11:23

King4aDay said:
Rose massively you mean? I bought in at 48p so missed the big jump but going nicely since.

apparently it tanked to around 29p after the sacking of the CEO. looks to be on the rise again.

Skeptic · 28 May 2020 at 11:31

I can see the perceived value in AML but it's not one for me. Take a long-term view of their share price. Not sure where the growth will come from?

King4aDay · 28 May 2020 at 11:35

Chrisc said:
apparently it tanked to around 29p after the sacking of the CEO. looks to be on the rise again.

I think it shot up initially, then there was a massive sell off (presumably either bag holders or people who bought in previously at 30p), then it came right back up again.

King4aDay · 28 May 2020 at 11:38

Skeptic said:
I can see the perceived value in AML but it's not one for me. Take a long-term view of their share price. Not sure where the growth will come from?

New CEO is ex-Mercedes, they have a (supposedly decent) SUV about to launch which opens up a new market sector and apparently their F1 team is in good shape for a little extra image boost. The brand name itself recently got a decently high valuation as well. All of which rely on the world getting a little closer to normal to actually turn into sales, but they are positive signs.