Well you didn't expect BP so suddenly start rising did you?
You're in it for the long run with BP I'm afraid.
Tell me about it, but there again I do have long term interests in the company.
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Tell me about it, but there again I do have long term interests in the company.
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Do you think it will drop more on Monday then?
Caporegime
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I'm not sure, i think the current price movement is a huge overreaction to the suspension of drilling at the Beluga-1 well, at the moment its a setback, its not like they didn't find any gas its just not in commercial volumes, they could have plumed it into Methanex but they feel they can do better by drilling "down the road", we are going to get another well, it should be better than this one.
Unless someone is playing the market with big sells / buys i can't see this going from two days of 20 - 30% losses into a rise, my feeling is this will keep falling for a few days, but i don't expect sub 10p.
I'm stuck at the moment, i need my money out of MTA to put into KEA but i'm not pulling out of MTA until it goes up a little more, with news due on Monday i can see a rise in MTA prices, hopefully it will be enough so i can sell up, i'm looking at a Tuesday / Wednesday entry point for my next batch of KEA, hopefully around the 13 - 16p range.
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Well I got that wrong. £700 down again now
You think you've got problems!
My BP call came off, but I didn't back it!
Fingers crossed for some good news from across the pond soon...
I'll be looking out for the stress test results (July 24th), the half year results (August 4th), and even St Ledger Day (September 11th)!
Trying to buy some BP shares, but can't get it to find them on my online dealer. Tried BP and BP.L but doesn't like it. Can buy the US ones but doesn't like UK
edit: Got it, it was "BP."
planning on holding on to them for long?
Does the stock exchange close at 17:00? I'm not sure you can buy if the exchange is closed.Trying to buy some BP shares, but can't get it to find them on my online dealer. Tried BP and BP.L but doesn't like it. Can buy the US ones but doesn't like UK
edit: Got it, it was "BP."
Its only a small amount so depends on what happens.
S'ok got it sorted. Yeah you can buy any time as it will go ahead when the market opens.
How many did you buy out of interest, seems like you would need to spend a few thousand to make it worthwhile even if the price does shoot up in the future?
£1k which was in DES but that is static so thought I'd go back in with BP.
BP will never ever go below 300 though, right?
I bet 2 years ago people were saying RBS would never ever go below a pound as well!
Goes to show previous performance is not an indicator of where things will go.
The fact of the matter is BP are in some doo doo at the moment, until it is getting sorted it won't really rise. And it'll probably be quite a while before it's back up to it's old prices.
Don't try to catch a falling knife.
Goes to show previous performance is not an indicator of where things will go.
The fact of the matter is BP are in some doo doo at the moment, until it is getting sorted it won't really rise. And it'll probably be quite a while before it's back up to it's old prices.
Don't try to catch a falling knife.
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Dont listen to Jim Cramer if you like BP. He is pretty convinced they are due a bankruptcy and reorganisation as a failed enterprise if only to avoid unlimited damages. That may or may not preserve the share equity, I would be surprised if 300p for such a sucessfull company turned out to be a bad idea really.
Another idea put out is they will be forced to do a rights issue at this level
Good news would be oil breaking out of its recent negative trend, in my view the higher it goes the more likely the company will pull through eventually and vice versa
The nyse BP adr is scraping the bottom of its negative trend I think. The euro also did this and continued to grind down for many weeks before a bit of its recent bounce.
Theres no trading volume for BP at this level is one factor, at 200 it rises back slightly. Low volume is weakness so I think 250 is reasonable to wait for considering it has surpassed all reasonable support
Another idea put out is they will be forced to do a rights issue at this level
Good news would be oil breaking out of its recent negative trend, in my view the higher it goes the more likely the company will pull through eventually and vice versa
The nyse BP adr is scraping the bottom of its negative trend I think. The euro also did this and continued to grind down for many weeks before a bit of its recent bounce.
Theres no trading volume for BP at this level is one factor, at 200 it rises back slightly. Low volume is weakness so I think 250 is reasonable to wait for considering it has surpassed all reasonable support
Completely different situation really.
The reason it is so low:
Liabilities unknown
Oil still leaking.
No dividend
As soon as the relief well hits and they stop the leak we can start to see an end to all this. BP can afford pretty much anything thrown at them as long as oil stays over $60/bbl.
Soldato
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£1k which was in DES but that is static so thought I'd go back in with BP.
Good idea that one. I sold bradford & bingley to buy into standard life's IPO years ago and ever since Ive considered taking profits and reinvesting generally the best thing even if its appears not that great immediately
My purchase of anglo american this week turns out not so great but since I sold lloyds to buy them and lloyds then went down nearly 12% I dont feel quite so bad. Its all swings and roundabouts
AAL need to gap up on monday like 3% for my general premise of a uptrend to stand. I'll see to buy a bit of lloyds back also, support 52 then 48
As someone who does this for a living (buy-analyst for a long only well established investment fund with a number of billions under management) I've followed this thread with interest - you never know what tips you might find! Seriously though, I'm interested in several things. I should say firstly that I don't mean to criticise anyone and I would advocate a keen interest in investments - just several observations I have picked up. I should qualify that I typically look at companies on a long term horizon (4 years), but there are many similarities.
(1) I assume all those that invest actively (i.e. not a simple tracker fund) believe the market is not efficient, i.e. that market prices do not accurately reflect the value of company. I would agree. Not all markets are efficient, and its clear you might expect to find greater inefficiency on smaller markets such as AIM vs. the FTSE where you have generally less coverage of the company.
(2) You must believe you have an edge over the market. It is worth noting that over history actively managed funds have underperformed passive index trackers by approx. 50bps (0.5%). This would suggest on average that I would do better to put my money in an index tracker than incur the fees of an actively managed fund, or the costs of my own personal trades. So my question would be, what makes you think you have an edge over the market? Unless, you can answer this convincingly to yourself then I would be very careful. If you expect positive news on a company, don't you think the market expects this too and isn't it already in the price as a result. The same goes for an investment reccommendation, etc.
(3) Learn to recognise luck and skill. Some say it is better to be lucky then good and it will probably result in better profits in investing. What I would say, however, is learn to be disciplined in recognising whether the profit/loss on a trade is a result of luck or your theory coming true. It will help you to avoid making the same mistakes over and over again.
(4) One comment I often see is people saying how in 200X you couldn't lose money and look at by XX% return. How do you measure your returns? Against what benchmark (FTSE, Mining, etc?) If you made a 30% return great, but if the market made a 40% return, then suddenly this doesn't sound quite so good.
(5) What analysis tools do you use, company financial reports, broker reports, news, industry sources, gut feel, etc.
(6) Remember if a stock loses 50% it doesn't have to gain 50% to get back to where it was before, it needs to gain 100% (double). Money lost can be very difficult to get back.
John
(1) I assume all those that invest actively (i.e. not a simple tracker fund) believe the market is not efficient, i.e. that market prices do not accurately reflect the value of company. I would agree. Not all markets are efficient, and its clear you might expect to find greater inefficiency on smaller markets such as AIM vs. the FTSE where you have generally less coverage of the company.
(2) You must believe you have an edge over the market. It is worth noting that over history actively managed funds have underperformed passive index trackers by approx. 50bps (0.5%). This would suggest on average that I would do better to put my money in an index tracker than incur the fees of an actively managed fund, or the costs of my own personal trades. So my question would be, what makes you think you have an edge over the market? Unless, you can answer this convincingly to yourself then I would be very careful. If you expect positive news on a company, don't you think the market expects this too and isn't it already in the price as a result. The same goes for an investment reccommendation, etc.
(3) Learn to recognise luck and skill. Some say it is better to be lucky then good and it will probably result in better profits in investing. What I would say, however, is learn to be disciplined in recognising whether the profit/loss on a trade is a result of luck or your theory coming true. It will help you to avoid making the same mistakes over and over again.
(4) One comment I often see is people saying how in 200X you couldn't lose money and look at by XX% return. How do you measure your returns? Against what benchmark (FTSE, Mining, etc?) If you made a 30% return great, but if the market made a 40% return, then suddenly this doesn't sound quite so good.
(5) What analysis tools do you use, company financial reports, broker reports, news, industry sources, gut feel, etc.
(6) Remember if a stock loses 50% it doesn't have to gain 50% to get back to where it was before, it needs to gain 100% (double). Money lost can be very difficult to get back.
John