What got me intereted in shares of late was the BP saga, their share price has obvioulsy slumped beyond belief, the way i see it is that politics will govern their share price from now on, Obama & co could crush them if they wanted too and whatever has been written about America in the media, Britian are still the main ally to the USA (maybe the only ally) and as far as i am concerned that means a lot. So my reasoning is that the US will not let BP die off but will play some short term politics to look good in mean time, thus BP will regain their standing similar to how ExxonMobil did. This may take 5 -10 years plus but i see it as an investment, so yes to answer your question gut feeling governs my rationale regarding BP and maybe most shares. America, overall, ARE a fair and JUST country no matter what some say and i hope they will come good. So for me shares are not always about science, business or technology, they are about the fundamentals of all of us, trust, desire and belief as that is what drives the consumer market.
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What got me intereted in shares of late was the BP saga, their share price has obvioulsy slumped beyond belief, the way i see it is that politics will govern their share price from now on, Obama & co could crush them if they wanted too and whatever has been written about America in the media, Britian are still the main ally to the USA (maybe the only ally) and as far as i am concerned that means a lot. So my reasoning is that the US will not let BP die off but will play some short term politics to look good in mean time, thus BP will regain their standing similar to how ExxonMobil did. This may take 5 -10 years plus but i see it as an investment, so yes to answer your question gut feeling governs my rationale regarding BP and maybe most shares. America, overall, ARE a fair and JUST country no matter what some say and i hope they will come good. So for me shares are not always about science, business or technology, they are about the fundamentals of all of us, trust, desire and belief as that is what drives the consumer market.
Arguably, and obviously not including the oil bit, they were the same
Liabilities were unknown when it all crashed, and then dividends etc canned
Although they also had that bailout thingy as well.Just playing devils advocate, don't want anyone losing money they can't afford to.
People said this would never go below 300, it did today.
Only one person said it wouldnt go below 300p and I think that was to just convince themselves.
Banks have no assets - BP have billions, trillions even if you include oil in wells. They don't need a bailout and their profits from the rest of the business are not affected at all by this situation.
The dividend suspension was more of a gesture IMO
Banks have no assets - BP have billions, trillions even if you include oil in wells. They don't need a bailout and their profits from the rest of the business are not affected at all by this situation.
The dividend suspension was more of a gesture IMO
"beyond belief" means nothing, you just perceive a 50% fall as a lot.
"May take 5-10 years" you're subconsciously fooling yourself into a no matter what I'll win mindset.
I saw these type of comments on the newbie trading forums (yahoo etc) during the demise of Northern Rock. The drop from 1200p to 600p drew in thousands of "bargain" hunters, the further drop from 600p to 200p drew in even more. We all know how that ended. The same thing happened with Royal Bank and a number of others.
As posted earlier, if you're in it for the "long term" why not invest in a FTSE tracker? I suspect many here are in BP for the short term expecting 50%-100% gains. The stockmarket does not behave in the way the general public can relate to and thus many lose money.
In regards to BP:
I don't believe they're about to go bankrupt, but you have simply no way of knowing what the longer term effects will be. BP Global assets are ~£100b, £35b of which are BP America (worst case scenario it's BP America that will BK, not BP global), potential lawsuits and clean up bill are currently in the £30b range. The unknowns are the damage to the brand, long term lawsuits and structural change if they are found to be negligent (read this as lower profits).
The BP bankruptcy scare stories are made up by shorters.
In theory, when this sorry mess is all cleared up (in 5 years plus based on the $20bn fund), the leak is stopped and the fines are defined and paid, the dividend should return and the BP share price should return to previous levels.
The trouble is that the previous price included the earnings of the integrated AMOCO, and the possibility of further earnings potential in that part of the world.
Hayward and Svanberg haven't covered themselves in glory in their handling of this, and there is real danger that the US operations may never recover. At this stage I wouldn't rule out the de-merger of AMOCO and that kind of uncertainty about huge variables in future earnings, is as big a concern as the liabilities of the spill.
If I wasn't in so deep in Lloyds I might be tempted to have a flutter on BP, but I've got more than enough wounds to lick having watched a 12% drop in 2.5 days...
In theory, when this sorry mess is all cleared up (in 5 years plus based on the $20bn fund), the leak is stopped and the fines are defined and paid, the dividend should return and the BP share price should return to previous levels.
The trouble is that the previous price included the earnings of the integrated AMOCO, and the possibility of further earnings potential in that part of the world.
Hayward and Svanberg haven't covered themselves in glory in their handling of this, and there is real danger that the US operations may never recover. At this stage I wouldn't rule out the de-merger of AMOCO and that kind of uncertainty about huge variables in future earnings, is as big a concern as the liabilities of the spill.
If I wasn't in so deep in Lloyds I might be tempted to have a flutter on BP, but I've got more than enough wounds to lick having watched a 12% drop in 2.5 days...
Soldato
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That is a good point but the reason BP is not a duplicate of Northern Rock or other failed companies is
- Less leverage, banks borrowed on their assets upto 40x
Banks used sub prime debt as some of their core asset worth, oil is BP's core asset and the price isnt falling or likely to
Sub prime was (is) a government backed falsely created market. Oil supply is affected by OPEC but the demand is not falsely inflated and appears to be growing in line with world gdp
BP screwed up no doubt, they have been failing in accident prevention for years. Long term I would recommend Shell rather then BP.
However its likely the market is overshooting as it often does and the companys total value has not halved
Soldato
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One of the flaws of private investing is people including myself dont often consider the bread and butter of the companys they buy.
They end up chasing prices, nobody here sits down 8 hours a day to consider earnings potential so like John says above the odds are biased to failure vs the professionals
I thought this explanation of earnings was pretty useful and fairly straightforward. Its detailing gold mining and the price of gold in relation to potential profit.
However I think we can substitute BP and the oil price in a similar way. Obviously BP expenses just rose a whole lot and still rising, how able are they to pay them though and what effect would $90 oil have or $50 even
Had this sent to me today and remembered it being mentioned here -
They end up chasing prices, nobody here sits down 8 hours a day to consider earnings potential so like John says above the odds are biased to failure vs the professionals
I thought this explanation of earnings was pretty useful and fairly straightforward. Its detailing gold mining and the price of gold in relation to potential profit.
However I think we can substitute BP and the oil price in a similar way. Obviously BP expenses just rose a whole lot and still rising, how able are they to pay them though and what effect would $90 oil have or $50 even
Had this sent to me today and remembered it being mentioned here -
Code:
Buy Range Resources (RRL) at 4.875p
Says James Faulkner of specialist small cap website WatsHot.com
When it comes to oil and gas, the semi-autonomous Somali state of Puntland is perhaps most famous (or infamous) for the pirates which operate out of its ports. Ironically however, Somalia is understood to be sitting on vast hydrocarbon reserves of its own, which have hitherto been undeveloped due to political strife. The Puntland State of Somalia was established in August 1998 after a decision made by local political and traditional leaders following several failed national reconciliation efforts in the wake of the Somali Civil War.
[IMG]http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/1323/chartaspx.gif[/IMG]
Whilst the rest of Somalia remains a very dangerous place, Puntland has largely managed to avoid internal conflict and civil strife (excepting a few isolated occurrences).
In a 1991 a World Bank coordinated study intended to encourage private investment in the petroleum potential of eight African nations, Somalia and the Sudan topped the list of potential commercial oil producers; and while Sudan is now a producer, primarily due to the relatively calmer political climate of that country in the last decade, Somalia's potential remains untapped. Before the Civil War, Somalia had been previously identified to possess all the requirements for a petroleum province. This view was further reinforced in the mid 1980s following the successful exploration efforts of Hunt Oil Corp across the Gulf of Aden in Yemen. There Hunt discovered multi-billion barrel oil reserves that their geologists believed were part of a great underground rift or valley that arced into and across northern Somalia. This led to a flurry of exploration activity by the majors during the late 1980s and early 1990s, which the Civil War brought to an abrupt halt in 1991.
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Range has been able to obtain through Government sources previous exploration documentation relating to the hydrocarbon exploration in the Nogal Valley area in Puntland up until 1991. The documentation includes original seismic tapes, well logs and processed seismic sections identifying major targets found prior to exploration activities ceasing in Somalia. Range acquired the sole rights to to all mineral and hydrocarbon exploration and development in Puntland in July 2006. In October of the same year, Range signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Africa Oil regarding a $50 million 80% farm-in right for the latter in the Nogal Basin and Darin Basin Blocks. This has since resulted in a Joint Venture project being formalised between Range and Africa Oil which saw the formal signing of the Production Sharing Agreement between Range, Africa Oil and the Puntland Government take place on 17 January 2007. Just one of the two blocks - the southern basin - is purported to contain between 2.2 billion and 10.4 billion boe (barrels of oil equivalent), and there is every reason to believe the northern basin offers similar prospects. Range was recently given the go-ahead by the Puntland administration, with the drilling of the first exploration well by Africa Oil scheduled for mid 2010. Range is free carried until Africa Oil has spent the $50 million earmarked for exploration.
Africa Oil recently completed a comprehensive interpretation of newly acquired 2D seismic data over the Dharoor Block, and has identified "several large prospects". Africa Oil and its joint venture partners have agreed to initially drill one prospect in Dharoor, with the well expected to commence drilling before the end of 2010. The company has also completed a re-interpretation of the existing 2D seismic data over the Nugaal Block, having also identified "several large prospects". Africa Oil and its joint venture partners are in discussion regarding drilling plans for 2010-2011.
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The second most exciting feature in Range's portfolio is its 50% farm-in of two onshore oil and gas licenses covering about 7,000 square kilometres (roughly 10% of the country's total surface area) in the Republic of Georgia. Although the project is at a less advanced stage of development than Puntland, the acreage was heavily drilled during soviet era and initial analysis has identified 14 well locations suitable for oil in place estimates. Georgia represents an exciting investment for the company. The country was named "the year's number 1 reformer" in the World bank's 2007 Doing Business Survey. Three major pipelines crossing the country make Georgia an important strategic crossroad for hydrocarbon transit in the Caspian Region. Indeed, one pipeline runs just south of the firm's blocks. In addition to the oil targets there are also numerous prospective gas fields, which include highly prospective natural gas and coal bed methane targets. Early production revenues could be achieved through supplying the nearby city of Kutaisi (the second biggest city in Georgia).
The seismic acquisition program across the License Blocks VIa and VIb was recently completed and signed off by the company's Georgian Partner, Strait Oil and Gas. The seismic programme was acquired using the vibroseis technique and in total 410 km of 2D seismic data were recorded. From the onset the character of the data observed in the QC brute stacks was "good to very good and remained so throughout the programme". The company must now decide whether to progress the targets at the current 50:50 equity basis with its partner or to look for a new farm-in partner.
*The value of investments can go down as well as up. Investing in equities can lose you part or all of your capital. Smaller company shares can be relatively illiquid and thus hard to trade. And that makes such investments more of a high risk than larger company shares. UK-Analyst.com is owned by t1ps.com Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the FSA and can be contacted at 5-11 Worship Street, London EC2A 2BH or on 020 7562 3370.
However, it is the firm's near-term production prospects in Texas that have been providing the bulk of the newsflow of late. Range made the important transition from explorer to producer, less than three months after its confirmation of a commercial discovery at the North Chapman Ranch field. An independent reserves report put gross recoverable reserves at an estimated 215 billion cubic feet of gas (Range: 45Bcf), with a further 15.9 million barrels of oil (Range: 3.3 million barrels). Whilst the majority of these reserves are in the P3 or 'Possible' category, the upcoming multi-well programme should help move this into the 'Probable' (P2) and 'Proved' (P1) categories. From an investment of a mere $1.8 million, net undiscounted cashflow value to Range could be worth as much as $226 million in a 'best case' scenario. Obviously, net present value will be significantly lower given the undiscounted natur e of this estimate, but we are still looking at significant value for shareholders. It is looking increasingly likely that North Chapman alone will be enough to justify the current share price, with the high-impact exploration upside from Puntland and Georgia thrown in for free.
Last week's announcement of a placing to raise $10 million points to further development and diversification of what is becoming an increasingly exciting portfolio. Buy
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Encore and NPE should rocket tomorrow, fingers crossed.
Soldato
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Sounds good news for British tax revenues and the trade balance also
http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON:npe
For anyone who wants to show off their share picking skills, there is a monthly league table for July taking enteries now. Winners prize is 4 months free brokerage reports
http://stockchallenge.co.uk/site/forms/subform.php
I like this article by motley about options on investment trusts. http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investin...12/14/a-perfect-investment-for-optimists.aspx
If a big hit to risk sentiment occurs as has often happened recently I'd consider getting some as 2014 is plenty of time for a rebound (sometimes the stock market is short sighted)
Seems ordinary brokers deal them which isnt true of fancy covered warrants, etc
http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON:npe
For anyone who wants to show off their share picking skills, there is a monthly league table for July taking enteries now. Winners prize is 4 months free brokerage reports
http://stockchallenge.co.uk/site/forms/subform.php
I like this article by motley about options on investment trusts. http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investin...12/14/a-perfect-investment-for-optimists.aspx
If a big hit to risk sentiment occurs as has often happened recently I'd consider getting some as 2014 is plenty of time for a rebound (sometimes the stock market is short sighted)
Seems ordinary brokers deal them which isnt true of fancy covered warrants, etc
Damnit, missed the sell at 209p, managed to slice off at 180p though :\.
Went back in again with what I originally invested though. Bring on the next appraisal
yah I got out at 191
Caporegime
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Anything i'm not in is up 
Happy days
Happy days