Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Caporegime
Joined
22 Nov 2005
Posts
45,359
Sea of red again this morning. Musk's done a number on bitcoin so will see how low that goes now :p
yea inflation fears apparently even for UK stocks.

sucks when your banking stocks go down because "inflation fears" I thought banks love inflation and as it's basically negative iinterest for them
 
Associate
Joined
2 Aug 2010
Posts
1,484
Location
Straya but now east London innit
I don't get the inflation fears tbh. Pre-covid Inflation has been going up by 2% each year but last year it didnt go up at all so this year is just playing catch up. Its got the market spooked now though and not sure if a crash is coming? Or is it just a correction? The bull market has been massive in the last 8 months.
 
Caporegime
Joined
22 Nov 2005
Posts
45,359
I don't get the inflation fears tbh. Pre-covid Inflation has been going up by 2% each year but last year it didnt go up at all so this year is just playing catch up. Its got the market spooked now though and not sure if a crash is coming? Or is it just a correction? The bull market has been massive in the last 8 months.
inflation is kinda high to be fair almost doubled for the USA even if the number seems low still, I think we will have months of red ahead of us
 
Soldato
Joined
20 Dec 2004
Posts
15,877
Quarterly figures are useless at the moment, unless you're a tabloid rag trying to crawl up the government's poop-chute.

The economy has been half shut down. It's opening up again, growth and inflation figures are not following normal patterns.
 
Soldato
Joined
7 Nov 2009
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19,799
Location
Glasgow
I need to sell 80% of my portfolio by the 1st June (house purchase). I'm thinking about selling 26% now, 26% next week and 26% the week after. This seems sensible to me, any thoughts?

I hold 9 stocks (7 funds/1 share/1 ETF). The funds don't have selling charges so I will stagger these but I’m just going to sell 80% of the share and etf in one go.
 
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Soldato
Joined
20 Dec 2004
Posts
15,877
I need to sell 80% of my portfolio by the 1st June (house purchase). I'm thinking about selling 26% now, 26% next week and 26% the week after. This seems sensible to me, any thoughts?

I hold 9 stocks (7 funds/1 share/1 ETF). The funds don't have selling charges so I will stagger these but I’m just going to sell 80% of the share and etf in one go.

Staggering it makes sense, but depends a bit on your circumstances. Is your house purchase going to be at risk if the market collapses next week and half your portfolio is gone?

I pulled my money out of the markets last year to complete a house purchase too....missed all the covid gains :( C'est la vie. Still, done alright since then.
 
Soldato
Joined
7 Nov 2006
Posts
6,113
Location
Nottingham
I need to sell 80% of my portfolio by the 1st June (house purchase). I'm thinking about selling 26% now, 26% next week and 26% the week after. This seems sensible to me, any thoughts?

I hold 9 stocks (7 funds/1 share/1 ETF). The funds don't have selling charges so I will stagger these but I’m just going to sell 80% of the share and etf in one go.

Why does that seem sensible to you? Do you believe the market is going up in the next 2 weeks?
 
Soldato
Joined
7 Nov 2009
Posts
19,799
Location
Glasgow
Why does that seem sensible to you? Do you believe the market is going up in the next 2 weeks?

I've given up trying to rationalise the market. I figure that it's just as likely to go up, down, or stand still. So by staggering, if it does go up then I will realise some gains. If it goes down then I will protect myself against some of those drops.

Realistically, as most of my holdings are in funds it's unlikely to make much difference to the bottom line so probably doesn't make much difference.
 
Soldato
Joined
25 Nov 2005
Posts
12,459
I need to sell 80% of my portfolio by the 1st June (house purchase). I'm thinking about selling 26% now, 26% next week and 26% the week after. This seems sensible to me, any thoughts?

I hold 9 stocks (7 funds/1 share/1 ETF). The funds don't have selling charges so I will stagger these but I’m just going to sell 80% of the share and etf in one go.

Just sell 5.2% each day ?
 
Soldato
Joined
13 Jul 2004
Posts
20,079
Location
Stanley Hotel, Colorado
I would have already sold out of fear of market tripping up and not being able to make back the difference due to forced sale by that date. Start from 50% and scale out with half as much each time, the final bits are closest to forced sale. Important money that cant be lost should be in funds, ideally they dont mind you trading them or charge much because its different to owning a precise amount by yourself.

Say you were in the riskiest things, juggling meme coins or whatever. You could be remain in market but rotate assets from riskiest to more stable before leaving altogether. This is done all the time with pensions I guess though bonds are risk imo so I dont know what they do now.

June is tomorrow basically, in working days the year is a lot shorter. Sell the more illiquid stuff first, funds last so a single company can have news at any time and move price a large amount out of hours


Higher inflation is higher rates possible which alters monetary flows and leveraged trading. I heard the biggest gains (nominal) can occur when rates are rising because its invariably failing to beat the inflation moves but also it relates to growth loss (value) as industry loses business in unstable markets.
If we took the extreme, currency fails we have to barter instead its a failure to efficiency and business will decline from lower efficiency higher costs, all of society is poorer when inflation is apparent but it doesnt mean some trade cant work out well within that decline.
Commodities are likely justified in their move upwards if currency weakness continues


 
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Associate
Joined
2 Feb 2020
Posts
145
Location
UK
Please can someone explain the 30 day rule to me for stock buy back under capital gains - and specifically if it applies to US equities?

For a rough example, say I:

1. Buy TSLA for $X
2. Sell for $X-100 - [$100 capital loss]
3. Buy back in to TSLA, the next day at $X-50.
4. Sell for $X-10 [$10 capital loss]

In UK capital gains terms, can that be spun as a $110 loss? Or is a clear cut, first sale never happened - your loss is only $10? Or am i totally misunderstanding?
 
Soldato
Joined
19 Jan 2006
Posts
16,057
Please can someone explain the 30 day rule to me for stock buy back under capital gains - and specifically if it applies to US equities?

For a rough example, say I:

1. Buy TSLA for $X
2. Sell for $X-100 - [$100 capital loss]
3. Buy back in to TSLA, the next day at $X-50.
4. Sell for $X-10 [$10 capital loss]

In UK capital gains terms, can that be spun as a $110 loss? Or is a clear cut, first sale never happened - your loss is only $10? Or am i totally misunderstanding?

https://techzone.adviserzone.com/anon/public/personal-taxation/Practical-G-Share-match

Good examples there
 
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