Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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So Biden has withheld congress approved funds for Ukraine, that sounds so familiar, I can't quite pin down where I have heard it before. Anyone for some Peach Mints?

Russia wants that water for Crimea and nobody will stop them from getting it.
 
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Lord-Jaffa said:
Russia wants that water for Crimea and nobody will stop them from getting it.
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This is the actual reason this'll kick-off, regardless of all the posturing/sword-rattling that Russia will do to see how far the new US administration can be pushed. Crimea needs a fresh water supply as the Ukrainians cut-off the existing one (the North Crimea Canal), which supplied 90% of the total, back in 2014 and they're now running dry with it costing the Russians a lot of money to keep them supplied so, in their minds, they need to "confiscate" just a small section of land to get access back to this fresh water source and they'll use force to do so.

This fresh water issue has been known about, and reported about, for years.

Sv6WeDE.jpg

I think that the above portion of Yellow area would be the prime target for any offensive, gaining control of the main fresh water supply, whilst showing military strength, shoring up home political worries and all over a small bit of land just 40 miles by 100 miles which the rest of the world won't fight over.

Of course the Ukrainians will fight back, and hard, which is why so much Artillery etc is being brought in i.e. stuff that has the range to fire from "Crimean" territory so gives Russia the excuse that it hasn't put troops into the "Ukraine" which everyone knows is a load of cobblers.
 
Lord-Jaffa said:
So Biden has withheld congress approved funds for Ukraine, that sounds so familiar, I can't quite pin down where I have heard it before. Anyone for some Peach Mints?

Russia wants that water for Crimea and nobody will stop them from getting it.
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Literally the only source I can find for this "news" is the 'One America news network' and they don't cite any sources other than "reports say"

One America News Network (OANN), also known as One America News (OAN), is a far-right,[14] pro-Donald Trump[22] cable channel founded by Robert Herring Sr. and owned by Herring Networks, Inc., that launched on July 4, 2013.[27] The network is headquartered in San Diego, California, and operates news bureaus in Washington, D.C., and New York City.

Its prime-time political talk shows have a conservative perspective, and the channel has described itself as one of the "greatest supporters" of Trump.[28] Trump himself has promoted both the network and some of its hosts.[4][29][30][31]

The channel is known for promoting falsehoods and conspiracy theories.[40] On November 24, 2020, YouTube suspended and demonetized OANN's channel for one week as a first strike under its three-strike community guideline violation policy for advertising a false cure for COVID-19.
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StriderX said:
Wouldn't Ukraine just sabotage the canal in that instance?
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Yeap, the blocked off part of the canal inside Ukraine (approx 10 miles length) is already dried out and has sustained heavy damage from crumbling away but I'd be amazed if the Ukrainians hadn't got some form of a more permanent demolition* planned. The issue for them would be time needed to actually destroy enough of the canal in a large enough way to make it completely unrepairable, as there's only 10 miles of terrain needed to secure the dam causing the blockage and just 40 miles needed to secure the whole canal length to prevent further damage and that wouldn't take long, assuming Russian SF, artillery & air power etc helps out. Worst case for Ukraine is that Russia takes the land and just digs another canal over say 4-6 months, then Ukraine would have to build another bigger dam further upstream so the Russians then have to take that and it just continues onward. Best case for Ukraine is that Russia bites off more than it can chew from a newly equipped and trained Ukrainian military and loses enough young soldiers that it makes Putin's stance untenable and the Russians themselves get rid of him, but they'd need to see a hell of a lot of dead young soldiers before that'd happen, which sucks.

*Demolition - just some simple explosives won't damaged anything badly enough to render it completely unrepairable, rather it'd just add a few months delay. It'd need either full scale mechanical demolition work which is time consuming and unlikely or (and this just wouldn't happen) something catastrophic like irradiating it to make it instantly unusable.

Here's an image of the canal before/after to get a judge of it's size -

Before

TvftpoZ.jpeg

After - along most of it's length it looks similar to this image with concrete lining crumbling, needs dredging etc before use alongside who knows what else.

TuD5i4y.jpg

and this is where the dam is in relation to the canal and the front lines -

KOERaxm.jpg
 
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ianh said:
This is the actual reason this'll kick-off, regardless of all the posturing/sword-rattling that Russia will do to see how far the new US administration can be pushed. Crimea needs a fresh water supply as the Ukrainians cut-off the existing one (the North Crimea Canal), which supplied 90% of the total, back in 2014 and they're now running dry with it costing the Russians a lot of money to keep them supplied so, in their minds, they need to "confiscate" just a small section of land to get access back to this fresh water source and they'll use force to do so.

This fresh water issue has been known about, and reported about, for years.

Sv6WeDE.jpg

I think that the above portion of Yellow area would be the prime target for any offensive, gaining control of the main fresh water supply, whilst showing military strength, shoring up home political worries and all over a small bit of land just 40 miles by 100 miles which the rest of the world won't fight over.

Of course the Ukrainians will fight back, and hard, which is why so much Artillery etc is being brought in i.e. stuff that has the range to fire from "Crimean" territory so gives Russia the excuse that it hasn't put troops into the "Ukraine" which everyone knows is a load of cobblers.
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Excellent post that.
 
XeNoN89 said:
Apparently Biden chickened out on sending the ships to the Black Sea.
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China and Russia just don’t care about the US anymore. What a joke. There’ll be the usual ‘sanctions’ against a few individuals that Russia also doesn’t care about. I wonder what Russia told the US behind the scenes. Not the first time they’ve backed down recently.
 
I can't believe the Ukrainian civil war is entering it's seventh year, seems like only yesterday we were discussing the coup against Yanukovych.

The funny thing is there are still people who claim Russia isn't supplying the eastern Ukrainian rebels, it's been seven years, granted there was a lot of ammunition stockpiled in the Ukrainian bases/etc in the east but not enough to wage a seven year war, the western Ukrainian forces have had to source foreign support to keep their side going so there's no way the east could have done it without foreign aid.
 
ianh said:
The "cancelled" US Navy visit story - https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-usa-turkey-russia-int-idUSKBN2C12U3

The US is saying that Turkey may have "misinterpreted" the request as the voyage "was never confirmed" and that the USN frequently tells Turkey that it will send ships into the Black Sea but doesn't always carry out the voyage.
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Presumably to test the Turkish government's ability to keep their mouths shut?

Or is it just deflection?

Also, while it's likely in contravention of a Geneva convention or some other international agreement, poisoning the river so that it's entirely unusable was basically what I figured would need to happen to keep Russia away or force them into a full-scale conflict.
 
StriderX said:
Presumably to test the Turkish government's ability to keep their mouths shut?
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There's no "keep this voyage secret" part of the 1936 Montreux treaty which says all non-Black Sea adjacent navies must tell Turkey when they are going to traverse the Bosphorus strait to get into/out of the Black Sea. They have to do this 8 days prior to the voyage and Turkey often publicises warship travel, irrespective of the nation involved - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits
 
So apparently Putin saying he won't have a discussion/meeting with Biden in relation to this - not really a good sign.

Generally with Putin that is a sign his mind is set on something which doesn't really tell us much but whatever it is he considers such a meeting a waste of time.

Whether that is Biden just blinked and Putin has his political end and will draw down or maybe will see it as weakness and press home the advantage or he is already intent on some other course of action.
 
Rroff said:
So apparently Putin saying he won't have a discussion/meeting with Biden in relation to this - not really a good sign.
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Yup, that is a very bad sign and really is the clincher here... had Putin agreed to some big summit with the US in a few months time then an invasion of Ukraine immediately beforehand would be super awkward and render the summit a bit farcical... I guess turning it down keeps that on the table.

Tellingly the two US warships that were due to arrive in the black sea seem to have been warned off by Russia:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ncels-deployment-of-two-warships-to-black-sea
The U.S. canceled plans to send two warships through Turkish straits into the Black Sea this week, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Thursday, after Russia warned American vessels to stay away from a coastal region it annexed in 2014.

“The U.S. verbally canceled their passage yesterday. We’ve not received a written statement yet,” Cavusoglu said in an interview with NTV TV. “The ships can still pass within three days after the scheduled days but if they don’t then they have to notify Turkey again 15 days in advance of their passage.”
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Also, twitter seems to be having some issues at the moment but I did see some reports of apparently new sandbags appearing in front of buildings in the occupied areas - if true then what do they know about what is coming...
 
dowie said:
Also, twitter seems to be having some issues at the moment but I did see some reports of apparently new sandbags appearing in front of buildings in the occupied areas - if true then what do they know about what is coming...
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I linked one in my post above but it doesn't seem to be loading correctly at the moment. It is one of the steps before they start pulling officials back/evacuating and setting up supply lines which would indicate rather heavily towards something serious.
 
dowie said:
They've already got supply lines, that isn't something that needs to be set up tbh...
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If they are/were planning a major incursion or invasion of Ukraine it would necessitate logistics on a far larger scale than the current capacities - new roads, new rail and/or requisitioning transport infrastructure, etc. it would be something that showed their hand so likely to be left as long as possible - personally I could see if things are going that way they would try and use Victory Day and other events in May as a cover.

Also just not seeing the level of build up of irregular forces (meat grinder) and heavy regular forces that would be necessary in that eventuality - again something I'd be keeping a watchful eye for around the end of April/early May.
 
Rroff said:
If they are/were planning a major incursion or invasion of Ukraine it would necessitate logistics on a far larger scale than the current capacities - new roads, new rail/QUOTE]

Doubtful, what is the basis for that claim?

I doubt very much you'll see them having to build a railway before invading. If they want to invade they could do so next week.
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