Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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HungryHippos said:
I've maintained that Russia have been losing this for a while now.

The turning point is the arrival of the HIMARS, just got to see the territory changing hands slowed down and reversed.

Russia still hold a lot of Ukraine but by and large it's the bits that were easier to reach, and they're gradually losing that grip.
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They may start upping the rhetoric more against the west. More so than they already have. But that requires them to make the first hostile move.

I expect they'd play it with some sort of atrocity (tactical nuke etc) on Ukraine soil. Almost baiting the west to escalate. Then (as for some reason putin likes it) they can make some ridiculous claim that West has caused Russia to respond.
 
Don't really want to delve into more whatifs on nukes as I mentioned before, it gets us nowhere and I'm bored of the topic.

More interested in how the war on the ground pans out, at the moment Ukraine are winning, and more kit will be arriving all the time.

Russia may be able to keep the war machine spinning but it's not as if Ukraine is a spent force.
 
Scania said:
Unfortunately, I’m at the point where I’m almost expecting to look up and see a huge flash in the sky, been here before in the early 80’s yet this time, I really see a scenario where it could actually happen - the Soviet regime was never this mad, in fact, they were paranoid that we (the west) were on the verge of attacking them….

This time though, you have a delusional paranoid moron in the form of Putin who’s basing everything that’s going on in his own warped view of the west, our attitude toward Russia and what’s happening in Ukraine which no matter how you dress it up is the Russian federation invading a sovereign country.

Now it’s clearly backfired against what Putin expected and the undoubted humiliation of the Russian conventional forces, I sadly don’t see anything other than a dark escalation way beyond what this should ever have been…

Ultimately, if it happens, it happens. There’s nothing I can do to prevent it so I’m not lying awake at night worrying about it.

That said, I’d be lying to say I wasn’t terrified of the prospect…..
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The issue is if russia launch, then others launch as they dont know the targets only that ICBMs are incoming. That would concern russia’s allies. If the other side launch, then how does china know if it’s just for russia.. and so on until you end up with WW3.
More likely putin will use airborne cruise with nuclear payload - less chance of spill over into friendly countries.
 
Tephnos said:
This is about the third or fourth time now where it needs to be pointed out the video footage showed the truck intact as the first flash occurred.

It's just not plausible with that evidence. Plus, there is a hole on a collapsed section of bridge, which could be indicative of a missile strike. A truck blowing a hole and falling through it wouldn't exactly do much good.
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Can you link me to this video? I've stepped through the security cam footage on youtube frame by frame but can't see what you mention.

Also why do you think an explosive delivered by a missile is somehow so different from an explosive delivered by a truck? If you took a missile and a missile warhead placed on a truck then detonated them in the same relative positions to the bridge you would have identical results.
 
NickK said:
The issue is if russia launch, then others launch as they dont know the targets only that ICBMs are incoming. That would concern russia’s allies. If the other side launch, then how does china know if it’s just for russia.. and so on until you end up with WW3.
More likely putin will use airborne cruise with nuclear payload - less chance of spill over into friendly countries.
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Something I was trying to say earlier in the thread - a consideration even for Putin is that if they start mobilising their strategic forces that is going to have everyone on tenterhooks as the intended target will be unclear even if at face value it would be Ukraine. There is a rather fine line between their strategic and tactical capabilities when it comes to nuclear weapons.
 
Fourstar said:
If you took a missile and a missile warhead placed on a truck then detonated them in the same relative positions to the bridge you would have identical results.
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No, because the missile is travelling at speed, has a large mass and kinetic energy associated with it.
 
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Fourstar said:
Can you link me to this video? I've stepped through the security cam footage on youtube frame by frame but can't see what you mention.

Also why do you think an explosive delivered by a missile is somehow so different from an explosive delivered by a truck? If you took a missile and a missile warhead placed on a truck then detonated them in the same relative positions to the bridge you would have identical results.
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There's a picture of it in the last page.

The truck is far too amateur for a purposeful attack by Ukraine, is my opinion. If Ukraine has the capability to hit it with rockets, why not just use the rocket? The truck is not the right tool for the job of bridge demolition.

Honestly, if it *is* the truck, then I think it is highly likely a Russian false flag attack that ended up causing more damage than they anticipated.
 
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Scania said:
Unfortunately, I’m at the point where I’m almost expecting to look up and see a huge flash in the sky, been here before in the early 80’s yet this time, I really see a scenario where it could actually happen - the Soviet regime was never this mad, in fact, they were paranoid that we (the west) were on the verge of attacking them….

This time though, you have a delusional paranoid moron in the form of Putin who’s basing everything that’s going on in his own warped view of the west, our attitude toward Russia and what’s happening in Ukraine which no matter how you dress it up is the Russian federation invading a sovereign country.

Now it’s clearly backfired against what Putin expected and the undoubted humiliation of the Russian conventional forces, I sadly don’t see anything other than a dark escalation way beyond what this should ever have been…

Ultimately, if it happens, it happens. There’s nothing I can do to prevent it so I’m not lying awake at night worrying about it.

That said, I’d be lying to say I wasn’t terrified of the prospect…..
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Do they really want to destroy russia just because they are losing ukraine? I don't see it.
 
NickK said:
Probably russian thermobarics simply loaded on a truck and used as a improvised bomb. Inly issue is you usually see a vapour blast before it’s detonated.
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It's difficult to make those weapoins work, you have to generate the correct fuel/air ratio over a wide enough area and that's normally achieved above ground firstly with a small charge to spread the fuel, then a detonating charge to ignite the mixture. I don't think you can simply load one onto a truck and expect it to detonate like it needs to - it has to be delivered by missile or air drop.
 
NickK said:
The issue is if russia launch, then others launch as they dont know the targets only that ICBMs are incoming. That would concern russia’s allies. If the other side launch, then how does china know if it’s just for russia.. and so on until you end up with WW3.
More likely putin will use airborne cruise with nuclear payload - less chance of spill over into friendly countries.
Click to expand...

I would imagine China and India have made it crystal clear to Putin that nukes are a line he must not cross.
 
So the real question, what's the chances of Putin starting to fling nukes about, even the small ones.

Is there any chance there's anyone in around him that's had enough of this nutter and will pop him off, inside job?
 
ChrisLX200 said:
It's difficult to make those weapoins work, you have to generate the correct fuel/air ratio over a wide enough area and that's normally achieved above ground firstly with a small charge to spread the fuel, then a detonating charge to ignite the mixture. I don't think you can simply load one onto a truck and expect it to detonate like it needs to - it has to be delivered by missile or air drop.
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You could rig em to work from a truck - in some ways it would make more sense with what we are seeing here in terms of being a relatively large but not especially violent explosion for the size - but even more so than missile use you'd expect to see more evidence of the initial fuel cloud being dispersed, likely with the truck being partially visible as the source of the explosion for a few frames, before the big detonation.
 
Rage1999 said:
Do they really want to destroy russia just because they are losing ukraine? I don't see it.
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Maybe I am seeing the glimmerings of an off ramp for russia. Putting Wagner/Chechens/some other guy in charge means Putin can blame the whole thing on them, calling them traitors and still come out of it(to the Russians) as being someone who De-nazified etc but had to curtail due to traitors and morons.. Now Ofc we in the West can see though it, but to a domestic audience he could perhaps play the victim card..
 
ChrisLX200 said:
It's difficult to make those weapoins work, you have to generate the correct fuel/air ratio over a wide enough area and that's normally achieved above ground firstly with a small charge to spread the fuel, then a detonating charge to ignite the mixture. I don't think you can simply load one onto a truck and expect it to detonate like it needs to - it has to be delivered by missile or air drop.
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Unless on a boat under the bridge- dispersal would cause a flame to appear all over the bridge simultaneously.
 
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