What's going to happen to the car market?

I guess as with some other things it does seem like things in both used and new car market are carrying on fairly well for now. Longer term I can't help thinking we will actually see a proper recession and the impact which has been hidden by furlough etc so far will be seen... then again if there's enough support maybe there won't be, things seem very topsy turvy at the moment!

I'd guess that increased working from home might reduce demand for cars in general, if 2 car households start to think that 1 car would actually be fine etc - but then hard to tell how much of a long term thing that will be, and if reluctance to use / advice not to use public transport will act to increase demand (at least at the cheaper end of the market). My feeling is that new car sales will suffer the most longer term, as people decide to stick with what they've got / get a cheaper car to save money. However, this will just create more demand and less supply in the used car market, so I see that continuing to be strong (at least at the lower end of the market). Then again looking at the figures after the 2008 crash it didn't really seem to make much difference, so might be completely wrong about that and people will continue to buy / lease new cars! https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/uk-2019-car-sales-analysis-winners-and-losers/

Think it is really hard to say at the moment because things are still in flux, and temporary things like lockdown and furlough are still affecting what people are doing.

Personally my plans haven't really changed (thinking of selling my yaris and buying something tiguan/ateca/rav4/etc sized), but my main use is recreational rather than commuting, and my financial position isn't too precarious. I would not be doing that if I had no savings and was worried about how my job would fare during a recession, or if my main use was commuting and I wasn't sure whether I would ever go back to doing a regular commute though! Unscientifically it looks like my car has increased in value slightly recently, not sure the cars I'm looking at have changed much either way.

paradigm said:
...This is a complete 180 change from what I’ve been doing the last 9 years.
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^ a ... paradigm shift, perhaps? :D:o
 
Meh, I was close 174,887 with the biggest uplift being a 20.4% in private new car registrations compared with 2019. I see they have confirmed that the large rise was due to mainly a backlog of vehicles being delivered however, and the number are expected to drop for August due to 70 plate deliveries, and then a rebound for one month in September, with the rest of the year currently unknown but looking like a washout.

BEV up 174.6% YoY, with 39,119 cars registered, Diesel down 60.9%, and petrol down 46.5% on last year. Monthly BEV was up 259.4% and PHEV 320.3%.
 
I see mine has gone up in price again, equivalent on aT seems to be 3K + now
i saw it as low as £1,500 a month or so ago

but i think all cars seem to have gone up in price (under 10K)


i want to change mine to an EV, not sure whens the correct time, now or next year ?

only want an old Leaf (2015 ish)
 
Journey said:
Meh, I was close 174,887 with the biggest uplift being a 20.4% in private new car registrations compared with 2019. I see they have confirmed that the large rise was due to mainly a backlog of vehicles being delivered however, and the number are expected to drop for August due to 70 plate deliveries, and then a rebound for one month in September, with the rest of the year currently unknown but looking like a washout.

BEV up 174.6% YoY, with 39,119 cars registered, Diesel down 60.9%, and petrol down 46.5% on last year. Monthly BEV was up 259.4% and PHEV 320.3%.
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Some observations from my side:

- July market stronger than expected, with more natural demand than usual. Hence SMMT's reference to pent-up demand. It seemed to be benefit those who sell more from factory orders than from stock.

- August market likely to be relatively strong (on a SAAR basis) but perhaps not as strong as last year. Last year's strength was driven by changes to emissions regulations, and while some of that applies this year it may well be less. Hard to predict though.

- The BEV market in the month (as a mix of total car) was similar to the YTD position. This is important as Tesla registered only a relative handful of units in the month. Once Tesla decide to send another boat or two I expect the BEV share to pick up significantly. Shame their volume is quite so lumpy as it makes trend analysis more difficult.

Obviously most of my analysis I am unable to share :(
 
ShiWarrior said:
recession now

will prices fall ?
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This could mark the point where sentiment starts to shift. A lot of people probably don’t pay attention to GDP stats, but “recession” is one of those words that cuts through. Redundancies are also stacking up fast.

Perhaps this month we’ll still have pent up demand, next month is a plate change, then who knows? Oct/Nov onwards don’t look promising.
 
This recession isnt like the banking crash. People have lost jobs but most still have cash to throw around. Ive made more over lockdown due to much cheaper travel costs.
 
I sold my 911 yesterday back to the dealer I purchased it from, they're forecasting a big downturn in sales next year - probably around Q2.
 
The valuations of my S3 have been stable now for around a fortnight (actually dropped £5 on WBAC), this might be the sign of a tumble imminent as the increases have been pretty consistent for the last few months.

Probably going to shift it on in the next few weeks now.
 
I stopped keeping up with the news until recently as the constant doom and gloom wasn't helpful with regards to my mental health as someone, due to medical reasons, who has been increasing isolated and then shielded on top.

I decided flipping a car or two would be something to help as something to give me some focus, a few quid and after a bit of thought I came up with the following conclusion;

There are already a large number out of work, and with government support for business fading out, more job losses to come. This meaning many people losing company cars or being unable to keep up with car payments also ending up without a car. Living in an area with mostly low income people will be looking for something as cheap as possible to get them around.

Obviously low profits at this end of the market, but is it a good idea to buy two or three cars to target this type of situation, I'm talking £500 or sub? I just feel like there is already demand and its going to be increasing.

Or have I got this totally wrong?
 
Value of my S3 has definitely peaked, started dropping again now, so it’s now agreed to be sold. Just shy of £24k for it which is the best part of £3k higher than Audi would offer for it, and only £1,200 less than I can find a dealer-sold car advertised for with similar age, milage and spec.

No idea what I’m replacing it with, or even if I will just yet. Still got the TT, and the wife still has her Yeti, so in no rush for a vehicle.
 
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