What's going to happen to the car market?

Some of the really expensive stuff has dropped loads. But the cheaper, still collectable stuff has gone up loads. A nice mk1 Golf GTI will cost the same as a GT3 at this rate :p

But I think we'll see a final run of some epic cars just before 2030. Then that will be it, buy one and run it forever because the golden age is over.
 
adam cool dude said:
It is still 20 years before you will see a massive shift. Sad news is it is more than likely the final iteration for M, AMG and RS cars that we will see.
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Not sure about that mate, if the new law is that within the next 10 years only electrified/zero carbon fuelled cars will roll off production lines then there will be less and less conventional businesses working on ICE cars.
Would you buy a new diesel/petrol car in 2028, knowing that in 2 years time they will be an obsolete product/technology. Your car would surely plummet in price yet the cost of parts would probably sky rocket.
The next evolution in automobile transport is happening now and we have 10 years to get with the program.

that’s my take on it anyway.... :D
 
Banzai_Joe said:
Not sure about that mate, if the new law is that within the next 10 years only electrified/zero carbon fuelled cars will roll off production lines then there will be less and less conventional businesses working on ICE cars.
Would you buy a new diesel/petrol car in 2028, knowing that in 2 years time they will be an obsolete product/technology. Your car would surely plummet in price yet the cost of parts would probably sky rocket.
The next evolution in automobile transport is happening now and we have 10 years to get with the program.

that’s my take on it anyway.... :D
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Will the infrastructure be ready in 10 years time?
 
Banzai_Joe said:
Not sure about that mate, if the new law is that within the next 10 years only electrified/zero carbon fuelled cars will roll off production lines then there will be less and less conventional businesses working on ICE cars.
Would you buy a new diesel/petrol car in 2028, knowing that in 2 years time they will be an obsolete product/technology. Your car would surely plummet in price yet the cost of parts would probably sky rocket.
The next evolution in automobile transport is happening now and we have 10 years to get with the program.

that’s my take on it anyway.... :D
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Plenty of people still use and service "obsolete" classic cars. They are often cheaper to maintain too. There are also companies who manufacture parts still.

Converting classics to electric will be big business, but there is no point in doing it until the last minute. It should be cheaper by then too.
 
Banzai_Joe said:
Not sure about that mate, if the new law is that within the next 10 years only electrified/zero carbon fuelled cars will roll off production lines then there will be less and less conventional businesses working on ICE cars.
Would you buy a new diesel/petrol car in 2028, knowing that in 2 years time they will be an obsolete product/technology. Your car would surely plummet in price yet the cost of parts would probably sky rocket.
The next evolution in automobile transport is happening now and we have 10 years to get with the program.

that’s my take on it anyway.... :D
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I would expect this will get pushed back in the late 20's. I would expect hybrids to have a longer life span. Until they figure out how to rapid charge an electric car in 5 minutes or less its going to be difficult to get mass adoption.
 
Actually just been reading something that dropped into my mailbox.
So the government have signed a legally binding contract to end production of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030, but hybrid will still be produced until 2035.
Of course there will be a used car market for ICE cars for a good while after I guess, but with the point being that the UK becomes as carbon neutral as possible I just think that prices for anything but electric cars will rocket.
I’m hoping my next car will be a PHEV and then moving to electric prior to 2030, but who knows what the future will hold.
 
SSO said:
I would expect this will get pushed back in the late 20's. I would expect hybrids to have a longer life span. Until they figure out how to rapid charge an electric car in 5 minutes or less its going to be difficult to get mass adoption.
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Yeah I get your point, however look at the leaps and bounds battery technology has made over the past few years.
It’s really no stretch to imagine 500s miles on a single battery that can be charged in a few mins.
 
Banzai_Joe said:
Not sure about that mate, if the new law is that within the next 10 years only electrified/zero carbon fuelled cars will roll off production lines then there will be less and less conventional businesses working on ICE cars.
Would you buy a new diesel/petrol car in 2028, knowing that in 2 years time they will be an obsolete product/technology. Your car would surely plummet in price yet the cost of parts would probably sky rocket.
The next evolution in automobile transport is happening now and we have 10 years to get with the program.

that’s my take on it anyway.... :D
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Average age of cars in the UK is 8.2 years so yes it will be 20 years. The market of electric cars is just not here now to allow a decent sized second hand market for people to switch over. It is also funny you think the UK is the center of the world. The UK is insignificant in the motoring world and with other countries so far behind there will be no problem running an ICE for the next twenty years.
 
It is also funny you think the UK is the center of the world
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You don't have to be an douche about it mate. I did not say that the UK was the centre of the world. From what i've read the contract is in place to stop producing ICE cars after 2030. How do YOU know that the rest of the world isn't aligning with the same idea? Battery tech, after all is largely developed outside of the UK.
You say the average age of a car is 8.2 years, but that doesn't mean the average length of ownership does it?
I'm not against ICE cars at all, but i do believe that this is the start of a new generation that is now gaining more traction than ever before. If the electrified infrastructure does come up to scratch by 2035 at the latest then i can just seen anything related to ICE cars costing a fortune.
 
Banzai_Joe said:
Yeah I get your point, however look at the leaps and bounds battery technology has made over the past few years.
It’s really no stretch to imagine 500s miles on a single battery that can be charged in a few mins.
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I do think we are still a ways off on fast charging which is why the hybrids will be around a lot longer than most expect. For car manufacturers EV is a bonus, they are less expensive to produce than either ICE or hybrid sp they do have a major incentive to get there as soon as possible. The challenge is hybrid is more complex and costly than ICE so the transition is not an easy one. The other challenge is if all cars move to EV, is there enough electrical generation capacity to cover all of them?
 
SSO said:
I do think we are still a ways off on fast charging
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I disagree. Do you have a BEV? There are plenty of fast chargers. And by definition you don't need as many fast chargers because a vehicle only occupies the space for 15-20 minutes. It's about always topping up every time you stop. If you can (legally) drive MAXIMUM 140 miles in 2 hours and you sensibly stop for a break every 2 hours then you don't need for than 140 miles between charges. If we assume that you can get 3 miles per kW at 70mph then you need 46kW which is 1 hour on a basic rapid charger and 20 minutes on a 150kW charger assuming your car will charge that fast or 40 minutes on a slower charging car. So are you really saying that you can't allow for 20-40 minute breaks every 2 hours? And I've picked 3 miles per kW as a fairly worst case scenario. Most cars currently will do better than that. Tesla's, Kia's and Hyundai's are around 4 miles/kW at 70MPH which makes the numbers 35kW and 15-35 minutes for a charge.

I'm doing 600 miles per week (even now) and it's no bother. Stop the car, plug in, comfort break, grab a coffee and make a couple of phone calls. Unplug the car. Move on. When I get to the hotel I plug in, and in most cases, leave it there all night. I put my phone number in the windscreen so if someone wants me to move it, I'll move it.

SSO said:
The other challenge is if all cars move to EV, is there enough electrical generation capacity to cover all of them?
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Yes. If it can cope with every household in the UK boiling a kettle when the adverts come on for Corrie they can cover a few hundred thousand BEVs charging up overnight. And most chargers automatically reduce the charging rate if your home in total is using too much electricity, so it's not thought to be an issue.
 
Jonnycoupe said:
I am definitely imagining that sort of car will be huge waste of resource for its typical usage.
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Totally agree. I can see the case for big range EVs for the few, I can see the case for modest range EVs that can charge quickly for the masses but I can't see the point in the massive range EV that fully charges in minutes that everyone seems to want.

I guess that's the cue for the "I once did 1000 miles in a day and only stopped once for 5 minutes" post...
 
lordrobs said:
Totally agree. I can see the case for big range EVs for the few, I can see the case for modest range EVs that can charge quickly for the masses but I can't see the point in the massive range EV that fully charges in minutes that everyone seems to want.

I guess that's the cue for the "I once did 1000 miles in a day and only stopped once for 5 minutes" post...
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I’m pretty sure I posted in another thread about how I used to drive from Norwich to Warsaw (1000 miles) with one stops for fuel but I would stop every couple of hours for driver changes. I just physically couldn’t do that these days. So the last time I went I booked a hotel just over the Polish border. It was SO much nicer as an overall travel experience.
 
WJA96 said:
Yeah, well, BMW driver. Lack of understanding of basic courtesy. It’s almost like a stereotype.
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Yes that's definitely it. Are there any hoops you won't jump through to pretend your EV is the pinnacle of motoring?

It's good we've now added 'leaving a hotel room to move the car on demand from random members of the public' to the 'list of things EV drivers think is less hassle than just filling with petrol'.

Using an EV around town is hugely appealing and seemingly offers no downsides against a petrol or diesel car. Using an EV to leave town is an ever increasing list of hassle and compromise which really needs fixing rather than excusing if they are to be credible

The more I think about this the more I think that plug in hybrid is the answer in the medium term. It allows the benefits of EV around town and petrol out of town and means not being able to find a charging spot is never anything more than a bit of a shame rather than a huge inconvenience.
 
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Someone the other day showed me the ad for the new smart car, it does 70 miles and is around 17k (Is that right??) Anyway, I do a laughable low mileage a year, for the Disco, a full tank of dizzlelene lasts me two months, including the holiday breaks. I maybe fill up 5 times a year. I'd have to charge that over forty times a year.
 
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