Yeah, the monthlies will increase to account for the lower residuals - trust me, they have very complex algorithms to try and make sure it's you and me who get screwed over, not them
That depends surely? Maybe not directly because of inflation, but the associated rising interest rates combined with higher cost of living is going to mean second hand car buyers are getting higher rates on their finance, coupled with lower disposable income. This will make second hand cars less affordable, reducing demand, and so the prices should fall.
That was pretty much my man-maths when looking at how much my e-Niro lease would cost me.
£325 including maintenance for a 2 year old e-Niro + ~£13 in electric = total £340
vs
£130 fuel + £15 VED + £50 repairs/maintenance + ~£50 depreciation* = total £245
So yes, while obviously the "new" car is still more expensive, it's only costing me ~£100 to drive around in a nearly new EV vs a 14 year old diesel.
Added benefits including being able to drive the other half to work on the 5 days/week the trains aren't running without having to pay the £8 CAZ fee, and not having to worry about destroying the engine due to the majority of journeys being < 5 miles.
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If you want a new/nearly new car every few years then I guess you could look at lease VS buy as something of a gamble - you're paying slightly more to transfer the risk of "ownership" (e.g. loss of value) to the lease company.
If 2nd hand prices suddenly drop, with a lease you "win" because you just walk away and the lease co. take the hit.
If prices stay at the predicted level or increase, then with ownership you "win" because your asset at the end of the period is worth more.
I seem to have "won" so far with my current lease as I took it out just before 2nd hand EV prices dropped, and now the exact same lease is £50/month more expensive!
*rough finger in the air estimate based on the £3k the car cost over 5 years before it becomes too much of a pain to keep on the road