It only has value whilst people perceive it to have value. And if you're invested in it, it's in your interest to continue hyping up that perception.
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Why even bother with 4000 series cards in the current gpu climate?
- Thread starter Bug One
- Start date
Mining did collapse a few years ago and only recovered at the end of last year, so I don't think you're really that informed on the subject. Used GPUS from 2018-2020 were selling for peanuts, mostly Polaris cards.
ETH replacement needed by who? The big money have the cryptos they want, bitcoin, eth, ada, solana etc. The miners need it but they all want to sell not to buy. Basically you don't know of any proof of work crypto with what it takes to replace ETH. If none surface after ETH goes PoS then miners will start selling their kit en masse like 2018-2020.
The ETH PoS date is around June 2022 at the moment, I fully expect that to be pushed back (again) but it will happen eventually.
I do hope you're right, but I am very sceptical.
I don't see the current situation ending until there is a surplus of gpus / chips and genuine competition in the market. And that won't happen until the new Chinese and American Fabs are up and running and able to compete with TSMC.
I don't see the current situation ending until there is a surplus of gpus / chips and genuine competition in the market. And that won't happen until the new Chinese and American Fabs are up and running and able to compete with TSMC.
Soldato
The difference between 2021 and 2018 is 1 thing - everything needs computer chips now. Lead time for a Mercedes A250E with the Premium Plus package is 18 months. Ford are taking orders for April 2022 delivery for new cars across the entire range (at the earliest, that was from 2 weeks ago when i spoke to the principle of Birchwood group); anything 6 years or newer is attracting nearly new car prices. Boeing and Airbus have again cut production of aircraft. TV makers are reducing their ranges to keep secure the stocks of computer parts. And yes, Intel, Nvidia and AMD have all said supplies will be constrained next year - the talk is that nearly 2 years later the RTX 3050 will finally launch.
Yep, that's very true that there are far more drivers of demand nowadays.
I was just referring to the mining demand which by this time next year I expect to have dropped substantially (assuming ETH has finally gone PoS).
Soldato
Crypto is just 1 part of this, and saying it`ll free up cards is disingenuous , it wont. No bonfire of the 3090`s im afraid, as demand > supply = sky high prices.
Of course it will. If GPU mining is unprofitable then miners will sell their GPU's, hence freeing up cards. Whether that makes up for the other drivers of demand in the economy doesn't change that fact.
Soldato
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- 28 Oct 2011
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- 8,407
I'm infomed enough to know where Crypto is now, and it's going gangbusters, I don't like it but it is what it is. You're not seeing the bigger picture.
4-5 years ago people were saying Crypto, NFT's were a fad and a load of nonsense. Crypto.com just spent $700M on name rights for the old Staples Center, where LA Lakers play. All the big games pubs are going to start integrating these "currencies" etc into their games, look at Metaverses, just in the embryonic stage now with laughable scams, but it's happening, Lizard man just renamed his platform...
It's the trends that matter not the minutiae.
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Like what ?
I can't think of nothing new today that requires a chips now that didn't 3 years ago.
The cryptos going gangbusters are either ASIC mined (Bitcoin etc), proof of stake (ADA/DOT/SOL etc) or based on ETH in some way (ERC20 tokens like Shiba).
Again I ask: which GPU mined coin can take over when ETH stops being minable? Which big picture am I not seeing which keeps GPU mining viable after ETH? I would really love to know as I'd start mining it today. I don't think you have the answer.
Soldato
Its the amount, not only the application
Soldato
Except that didnt happen last time and wont happen next year. Its pure fantasy.
Soldato
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No, I can't see into the future, however if you think a a major driver of insane profiterring for major corps is just going to disapear overnight, then I guess we'll just have to wait and see who is right.
In the meantime keep huffing the Cope.
Soldato
Its not going to; i`ll have what ever he is smoking.
Soldato
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Of course it's not, NV/AMD are absolutely loving mining, ETH disapears/crashes another coin fills that space. They could easily even fill it themselves...
But nah, NV/AMD will care about gamers and exit the space, so we can all have pre-Turing prices again.
Yay!
Associate
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True it might keep getting delayed, and I honestly think it may not make a difference anyway!
Oh I see, In part though not sure that that's the reason, I admit we've had the new consoles but cant see a Ford transit and what not needing a custom CPU/GPU on a 7nm processes. Though that would explain why mines so damn slow
Soldato
Oh I see, In part though not sure that that's the reason, I admit we've had the new consoles but cant see a Ford transit and what not needing a custom CPU/GPU on a 7nm processes. Though that would explain why mines so damn slow
TSMC has finite capacity for producing anything ; what car ran a story about it:
Chip shortage delays: how long will you have to wait for a new car? | What Car?
Thats from Septmber, and delays have just got worse - car production globally is down from 2019 figures of 92 million to 78 million last year and its lower this year as well. Thats a lot more than all consoles combined. Global motorbike production is about 50 million per year. Now add in electric scooters / bicycles . Add in Boeing and Airbus (they cut production of all jets by 1/3rd, but each jet uses thousands of computer parts. Now factor in tv`s, toasters , coffee machines , smart watches etc - computers are everything in everything.
Man of Honour
Ethereum is currently by far the most fashionable token, yes. And if it stops being so fashionable another token will take its place. The idea that the entire thing will disappear because the current fashion becomes unfashionable is unsupported. Fashions change but fashion remains. Why would another token take the place of Ethereum? Because crypto is a multi-trillion dollar get rich quick money for nothing scheme. That's not going to get binned just because the currently fashionable token becomes unfashionable. Why would it? It's compared most infamously with the tulip bubble and with good reasons but it's significantly different because it's not tied to any single token. It's more like the fashion industry in that respect. Red lines on trainers no longer "worth" a 1000% profit margin? No problem. Put green lines on them instead. A fashion changes but the industry continues.
If that happened, yes. But why would it?
The only thing that could make crypto unprofitable is international regulation treating crypto as a currency and therefore subject to normal rules of financial businesses. There's no indication of that happening.