WINTER 2018/2019 - Chat thread!

[Neil79]

Well another winter approaches, wonder if he will get snow like last year! - Although we didn't get a lot, we did get one severe event with freezing rain, which froze on everything including windows. Woke up one morning and couldn't see anything out of my bedroom

Here's the first IN DEPTH forecast - COLD

 

[Neil79]

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

 

[Neil79]

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Nov 2018 to Monday 10 Dec 2018:

This period is likely to begin with a continuation of the mainly dry conditions, with variable cloud and some sunshine, once morning fog patches clear. However, there will be an increasing chance of some more unsettled interludes developing, with showers or longer spells of rain spreading to many areas at times. Temperatures are likely to be below average overall, with a marked increase in the likelihood and extent of frosts. These colder conditions will be accompanied by an increased chance of snow, particularly for northern hills, during any spells of more unsettled weather.

 

[Neil79]

Snowing in Hawkinge, Kent

 

[Neil79]

Met office CPF forecast
November update
December to February

Temperature summary
For December-January-February as a whole, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures, with the highest chances of impacts from cold weather later in the period. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for December-January-February will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 25%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binari...po/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary
For December-January-February as a whole, the chances of above- or below-average precipitation are approximately similar. The probability that UK-average precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binari.../pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-djf-v2.pdf

 

[Neil79]

Conclusions
Overall, the signals for December are quite mixed, but the most likely outcome is that the month will be unsettled and mild early and late, possibly with a colder blocked spell around mid-month, and probably wetter than average overall for the British Isles.

For January there is strong support from the analogues for colder, more settled conditions and a mean westerly flow somewhat veered from normal, pointing to northerlies being more frequent than normal, although two of the closest ENSO analogues are 2005 and 2007 which had very mild Januarys with rampant westerlies.

For February there is strong support for plenty of high latitude blocking and easterly winds blowing more frequently than normal, as has historically been very common in winters with ENSO in a relatively weak El Nino state, and both the analogues and the major long range forecast models are in strong agreement on this. In particular, any sudden stratospheric warming event in January or February, especially later in the season, would be particularly likely to give us a significant cold spell given that the probabilities are already weighted towards high latitude blocking for February.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal

 

[Neil79]

Oh!!! YES PLEASE

https://twitter.com/MrLukeyGeorge/status/1069712651570302983

 

[Neil79]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 9 Jan 2019:

The end of 2018 is likely to remain fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, as we head into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, but also an increasing chance of some snow showers and nighttime frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

[Neil79]

!!!! SSW

 

[Neil79]

What concerns me (from wishing for a bit of snow perspective) every couple of days or so the disruption gets pushed back another couple of days - initial model output was showing the first signs on the 26th now it is pushed to 29th-1st. On the other hand the best chance of proper wintery weather for the UK is if it gets push into January when there is deep cold around.

Was never keen on getting cold in November and then spats of it through the rest of the winter, 2010 was a great exception! Hopefully we get the hardest of any cold weather + snow during Jan or Feb, my favourite months!

 

[Neil79]

Sustained cold temperatures

Cold and snowy weather is expected to dominate the rest of January with Arctic air masses influencing the British Isles. From Tuesday, very cold air is forecast to extend across the country, with heavy snow showers giving significant accumulations and disruption in some areas. By later next week, a bitter easterly wind is likely, maintaining cold weather for many days ahead.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm

 

[Neil79]

PREMIUM CONTENT: John Hammond’s Month Ahead – Winter may be about to freeze over

https://weathertrending.com/2019/01/18/john-hammond-month-ahead-winter-freeze-over/

 

[Neil79]

Next week

Cold
Risk of snow
Frosty nights
Icy patches

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46913592

 

[Neil79]

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Feb 2019 to Saturday 16 Feb 2019:

The cold weather will continue as we head through the first half of February. There is a greater risk of seeing snow at lower levels as well as on the hills. Some drier and brighter periods are possible in the northwest, but in the south there is a chance of weather fronts approaching which bring a risk of rain, sleet and perhaps significant snow at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

[Neil79]

Weather Warning
Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF SNOW for 'East Midlands', 'East of England', 'London & South East England', 'South West England', 'West Midlands'
Updated 27 January at 0957 GMT

Valid from 2100 GMT on Tue 29 January to 1200 GMT on Wed 30 January
Snow, possibly heavy at times, developing overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday.

- There is a small chance of travel delays on roads with some stranded vehicles and passengers, along with delayed or cancelled rail and air travel
- There is a slight chance that some rural communities could become cut off
- There is a small chance that power cuts will occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected

YELLOW WARNING OF SNOW for 'Central, Tayside & Fife', 'Grampian', 'Highlands & Eilean Siar'
Updated 26 January at 1029 GMT
Valid from 1800 GMT on Sat 26 January to 1200 GMT on Sun 27 January
Snow and ice expected across northern Scotland, with blizzards possible on high ground.
- Some transport likely to be affected by snow, leading to potentially longer journey times
- Icy surfaces on roads and pavements could lead to an increased likelihood of accidents and injuries

 

[Neil79]

Wintry Week!

 

[Neil79]

COLD WEATHER LEVEL 3 AMBER ALERT ISSUED
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert