Winter 2024/25 - Cold or Mild? Rain or Snow?

[Neil79]

Ooops I forgot to make the yearly Winter thread! So here goes

The First forecast for Autumn/Winter has appeared on TWO

Forecast overview
The forecast headline is for a slightly milder than average autumn. However, there is considered to be an increased chance, relative to the norm, of cold snaps developing during the second half of November. Rainfall levels are most likely to be close to the norm, with wetter than average slightly more likely than drier than average.

November
Temperature:

Slightly below average

Precipitation

Close to average

First half

Predominantly unsettled conditions lead to showers or longer outbreaks of rain and the likelihood of very windy spells. The best of the drier intervals are expected in southern and central areas. Colder incursions are possible at times, especially in the north, but temperatures should be close to or slightly above average.

Second half

Changeable weather is likely in all areas, so wet and windy spells can be expected at times. Despite that, there is considered to be an increased chance of cold snaps. Therefore, the risk of frost and snow is higher, particularly in the northern half of the UK. Temperatures below the average.

Although that's Autumn, it does mention colder incursions and snow later half of November

Gavs Winter Forecast

It was also a rather cool/cold Summer, with a lack of sunshine and proper summer heat

- Met Office Data Reveals Nuanced Picture of UK's 'Coolest Summer Since 2015'

Met Office Data Reveals Nuanced Picture of UK's 'Coolest Summer Since 2015'

A look at the August and Summer 2024 climate data across the UK. Sunshine hours, rainfall amounts and Mean temperatures. The main summer heat has been focused away in southeast Europe.

www.netweather.tv

 

[Neil79]

Oh and last night for September "Coldest ever night recorded here at this time of year....25 years of records! 4.8c/NE Brighton"

 

[Neil79]

Excuse me while I laugh at these predictions.

Just like that summer that was 45C and they said it would happen ever year

 

[Neil79]

Only two drivers but they seem to correlate to a -NAO pattern during Dec-Feb.

A -NAO increases the likelihood of colder weather across the UK & NW Europe.

There are signs that this developing La Niña will be east based, i.e coldest anomalies in the east Pacific which may allow for stronger MJO cycles through the Maritimes & into the west/central Pacific, something cold weather fans want but something that needs further observation.

This MJO progression will lead to more positive AAM tendency which in turn supports slower, more blocked patterns across the Arctic/Atlantic.

Early days & we need to watch the MJO to see how this current cycle & indeed the next cycle behaves through October.

We also need to monitor the developing stratospheric vortex in the coming months, a major driver of our weather patterns during the winter.

3 Signs that Winter 2024/2025 could be Colder than you might expect

3 Signs that Winter 2024/2025 could be Colder than you might expect

A colder than expected Winter 2024/2025 could develop over the United States, Canada and Europe, based on the 3 Oceanic and Atmospheric signs

www.severe-weather.eu

Some more updates

 

[Neil79]

This will be the first winter with new loft/wall insulation, windows, doors and storage heaters! So will see