Winter 2024/25 - Cold or Mild? Rain or Snow?

Neil79

Neil79

Neil79

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Ooops I forgot to make the yearly Winter thread! So here goes

The First forecast for Autumn/Winter has appeared on TWO


Forecast overview
The forecast headline is for a slightly milder than average autumn. However, there is considered to be an increased chance, relative to the norm, of cold snaps developing during the second half of November. Rainfall levels are most likely to be close to the norm, with wetter than average slightly more likely than drier than average.

November
Temperature:

Slightly below average

Precipitation

Close to average

First half

Predominantly unsettled conditions lead to showers or longer outbreaks of rain and the likelihood of very windy spells. The best of the drier intervals are expected in southern and central areas. Colder incursions are possible at times, especially in the north, but temperatures should be close to or slightly above average.

Second half

Changeable weather is likely in all areas, so wet and windy spells can be expected at times. Despite that, there is considered to be an increased chance of cold snaps. Therefore, the risk of frost and snow is higher, particularly in the northern half of the UK. Temperatures below the average.
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Although that's Autumn, it does mention colder incursions and snow later half of November

Gavs Winter Forecast



It was also a rather cool/cold Summer, with a lack of sunshine and proper summer heat

- Met Office Data Reveals Nuanced Picture of UK's 'Coolest Summer Since 2015'
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www.netweather.tv

Met Office Data Reveals Nuanced Picture of UK's 'Coolest Summer Since 2015'

A look at the August and Summer 2024 climate data across the UK. Sunshine hours, rainfall amounts and Mean temperatures. The main summer heat has been focused away in southeast Europe.
www.netweather.tv www.netweather.tv
 
Oh and last night for September "Coldest ever night recorded here at this time of year....25 years of records! 4.8c/NE Brighton"

:eek:
 
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Only two drivers but they seem to correlate to a -NAO pattern during Dec-Feb.

A -NAO increases the likelihood of colder weather across the UK & NW Europe.

There are signs that this developing La Niña will be east based, i.e coldest anomalies in the east Pacific which may allow for stronger MJO cycles through the Maritimes & into the west/central Pacific, something cold weather fans want but something that needs further observation.

This MJO progression will lead to more positive AAM tendency which in turn supports slower, more blocked patterns across the Arctic/Atlantic.

Early days & we need to watch the MJO to see how this current cycle & indeed the next cycle behaves through October.

We also need to monitor the developing stratospheric vortex in the coming months, a major driver of our weather patterns during the winter.
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3 Signs that Winter 2024/2025 could be Colder than you might expect
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www.severe-weather.eu

3 Signs that Winter 2024/2025 could be Colder than you might expect

A colder than expected Winter 2024/2025 could develop over the United States, Canada and Europe, based on the 3 Oceanic and Atmospheric signs
www.severe-weather.eu www.severe-weather.eu


Some more updates
 
Greenland blocking/high pressure) is bringing cooler weather to Western and Northern Europe (see Figure 6). In contrast low pressure troughing in the Gulf of Alaska is persisting the mild pattern across much of Canada and the US (see Figure 6). But the polar vortex has been unusually weak for so early in the season (see Figure iv). This is a real wild card and could certainly bring colder weather in October but will it have any long lasting impact is an open question.
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2025

To summarise: December will start with an early storm delivering a brief respite in cold during the
first two weeks, before returning to a colder and frostier set up in time for Christmas. The last two
weeks of December will be cold and frosty. Christmas day we be a dry, cold day with some sunshine.
Some will have snow underfoot from earlier snowfalls so a very festive feel indeed. Not a white
Christmas for the very vast majority of us.
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To summarise: January will be a dry, calm, but cold month. The first two weeks will be cold and
frosty with sunny spells at times. It will get colder and colder and until the ground is frozen. Around
January 21st we will have our first snowfall of the year and the snow will settle and freeze. Any
further snowfalls will top up snow already laying on the ground. A further snow event will take place
around January 29th. Travel disruption is to be expected as well as problems for root farmers. In
addition, cattle will require extra care.
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To summarise: February may start with cold rain, but I believe it is even more likely to be snowfall.
If cold rain does materialise this will almost certainly create a treacherous condition known as
‘freezing rain’ and if this condition does materialise then it is highly recommended to stay home if
possible. There will likely be further snowfalls around February 12th, after which the conditions will
remain very cold and frosty with a particularly bitter cold months end.
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Forecasts | IndigenousUKWeather

www.indigenousukweather.com www.indigenousukweather.com
 
Still thinking this is going to be a cold winter, or atleast we are going to have one hell of a cold snap at some point compare to last year.

Far more rain ( Slower moving ), low pressures a lot further north, not your usual low after low going from south west to north east.
 
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www.netweather.tv

An early look ahead at winter 2024-25

An early look at how winter 2024-25 may pan out for the UK using current weather model seasonal output and forecasts of oceanic and atmospheric drivers for the winter period. Full winter forecast will be issued later in November.
www.netweather.tv www.netweather.tv

Based on current forecasts for a central-tropical Pacific based La Nina cold anomalies, westerly QBO this winter and solar maximum it seems that, for this coming winter, the combination of these drivers will bring a predominantly mild and sometimes wet "zonal" flow through winter.
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I really think this winter is going to have a nasty bite to it at some point! It's way different than last year, there's no ooomph in the jet stream, and it was never this calm for so long! I know we had a lot of rain previously with records being broken, but even that was because of the jet stream being rather slack and low pressure systems stuck over or near the UK. When was the last time we had storm after storm with gale force winds? Most of it has gone through the Med! It only needs the high pressure to be pulled towards the north west like some of the models are suggesting and winter comes
 
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7-UDc-Ng3qmt-gif-7b059246d77d2ff75a82adc9393e70b0.gif
 
“Frequent wintry showers are expected, mainly in the north and along eastern and western coasts were exposed to the strong north to northwesterly flow. Snow is likely to fall to low levels, especially in the north. Many inland areas may be largely dry with lengthy sunny spells, especially where sheltered from the flow. However, there is a risk of some more organised areas of rain and hill snow running east across more southern parts. The chance of any widespread or disruptive snowfall affecting more populated areas at this stage remains low though. Cold everywhere with overnight frost, and the strong winds will result in significant wind chill. There is a hint that it may become less cold later in the period, with more of a westerly flow becoming established.”
 
Rroff said:
Jet stream not really playing ball at the moment despite some displacement (in recent years regardless of any other setup if the jet isn't playing ball and robustly -10C or lower uppers winter just doesn't happen in any significant way), so any interim winter weather is probably going to be limited, but towards the end of the month long range forecasts are showing it very much not presenting a barrier to winter conditions if they pan out.
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Jet Stream hasn't really recovered to its normal form since the big SSW late last year or was it into early this year? But anyhoo spent most of it's time going through the MED
 
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