Winter 2024/25 - Cold or Mild? Rain or Snow?

[Neil79]

 

[Neil79]

Some places are going to get a lot of snow up north! But even now nobody knows how far south it's going to go

 

[Neil79]

Anyone got any snow yet?

 

[Neil79]

Fed up with this snow already.

But...You live in Scotland

That's like living in Spain and complaining you're fed up with the Heat

 

[Neil79]

We're probably looking at an Atlantic ridge/perhaps UK high initially, largely I suspect driven by the recent +AAM tendency, we then see the MJO move into more favourable phases during the first part of December which should reinforce the +AAM by the way of further +FT and +MT, adding westerly momentum into the atmosphere which will hopefully inject some oomph into the system for amplification/retrogression.

Unsure if we're looking at a Greenland or Scandinavian high, perhaps a mixture of both,. albeit I'd probably favour an extension into Scandi initially, this is mostly dependent on where the vortex lobes end up.

We do have a good shot at something colder/blocked into the 2nd half of December though, background drivers are pointing towards that and have been for a little while. In terms of the MJO;

Winter Approaching: Forecast and Model Discussion Commentary

community.netweather.tv

 

[Neil79]

Could be cold, could be mild, could be rainy, could be snowy. All bases covered

That's pretty good, usually it's just mild and rainy

 

[Neil79]

Long range Winter forecast 2024/2025

Long Range Weather Forecast | Winter 2024/2025 | Netweather.tv

UK Winter Forecast 2024/25: Cold winters are becoming increasingly rare in Britain - will this year buck the trend?

www.netweather.tv

So a bit of everything......