Wordle ** WARNING: THERE ARE PROBABLY HINTS TO THE DAILY WORD IN HERE **

Three streak has ended

Screenshot-2023-08-14-07-15-12-98-93b7fc0429a0e97afffb8ed9ac823d5b.jpg
 
Noughtboy said:
leaving you only 2 places for your third letter.
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I'll put my reply in a spoiler as gives a bit too much away for anyone who's not done today's yet.

It is actually also really helpful to identify that 'S was not the penultimate letter, as it rules out any words ending in 'SS'. And because the answer is never a plural, I would then be thinking that very likely the 'S' had to be first, making 'SNAxx'. Of course there are some words ending in only one S that are not plurals (eg LOTUS), but it is quite rare.
 
div0 said:
I'll put my reply in a spoiler as gives a bit too much away for anyone who's not done today's yet.

It is actually also really helpful to identify that 'S was not the penultimate letter, as it rules out any words ending in 'SS'. And because the answer is never a plural, I would then be thinking that very likely the 'S' had to be first, making 'SNAxx'. Of course there are some words ending in only one S that are not plurals (eg LOTUS), but it is quite rare.
Click to expand...

Clever idea to put the answer to the answer in a spoiler. Will try it out
Spoiler"]It is actually also really helpful to identify that 'S was not the penultimate letter, as it rules out any words ending in 'SS'. And because the answer is never a plural, I would then be thinking that very likely the 'S' had to be first, making 'SNAxx'. Of course there are some words ending in only one S that are not plurals (eg LOTUS), but it is quite rare
Click to expand...

Yep. So no GLASS or BLESS etc. That was my point you picked up on. In some cases goings with @rids57 method is superior when you have a number of options, in my case, SHALE, SWAMP, SNACK. I am sure I could have used something like THYME and picked up a yellow "Y" HOWEVER, if I had had any previous yellows, I have not advanced their placement.

There is a time and place for both methods and unfortunately you can never know the better one until the end. But, the point I was making is with a 2315 words in the Wordle dictionary, leaving a 1 aside as a fluke (1/2315 or 0.0431965%), @rids57 will likely never score a 2 either as using all new letters again being 1/2314 or 0.0432152%. I am now a little rusty on my Advanced maths and Statistics and probability, however, logically, there are a maximum of 31.2m five letter combinations words. (26*25*24*25*26) and even this is imperfect as for example APPLE does not conform nor does ZTCJK nor indeed does something like when you IS a PEN ;) . But it is the starting point.

Now when someone uses a completely new bunch of letters they have a 1/2314 chance in guessing it correct (2315-1) so no real improvement. However, for your second guess, using any green letters with new letters and/or green letters in place with yellow letters switched around for a new combination, your odds increase exponentially for the next guess even though you are introducing fewer new letters. Continue that five times.

In conclusion, people using this method may occasionally get a five or a six but will also "more occasionally" get a two or three. The other method has a 0.0864% chance (1/2315+1/2314). To highlight, my total statistics are as follows:

Total: 432
1: 1 or 0.23%
2: 23 or 5.32%
3: 164 or 37.97%
4: 175 or 40.51%
5: 58 or 13.42%
6: 11 or 2.55%

Anyway, that is my thought process. Would be interested to hear from those more statistically or mathematically inclined to show me the error of my thinking
 
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Noughtboy said:
Clever idea to put the answer to the answer in a spoiler. Will try it out
Yep. So no GLASS or BLESS etc. That was my point you picked up on. In some cases goings with @rids57 method is superior when you have a number of options, in my case, SHALE, SWAMP, SNACK. I am sure I could have used something like THYME and picked up a yellow "Y" HOWEVER, if I had had any previous yellows, I have not advanced their placement.

There is a time and place for both methods and unfortunately you can never know the better one until the end. But, the point I was making is with a 2315 words in the Wordle dictionary, leaving a 1 aside as a fluke (1/2315 or 0.0431965%), @rids57 will likely never score a 2 either as using all new letters again being 1/2314 or 0.0432152%. I am now a little rusty on my Advanced maths and Statistics and probability, however, logically, there are a maximum of 31.2m five letter combinations words. (26*25*24*25*26) and even this is imperfect as for example APPLE does not conform nor does ZTCJK nor indeed does something like when you IS a PEN ;) . But it is the starting point.

Now when someone uses a completely new bunch of letters they have a 1/2314 chance in guessing it correct (2315-1) so no real improvement. However, for your second guess, using any green letters with new letters and/or green letters in place with yellow letters switched around for a new combination, your odds increase exponentially for the next guess even though you are introducing fewer new letters. Continue that five times.

In conclusion, people using this method may occasionally get a five or a six but will also "more occasionally" get a two or three. The other method has a 0.0864% chance (1/2315+1/2314). To highlight, my total statistics are as follows:

Total: 432
1: 1 or 0.23%
2: 23 or 5.32%
3: 164 or 37.97%
4: 175 or 40.51%
5: 58 or 13.42%
6: 11 or 2.55%

Anyway, that is my thought process. Would be interested to hear from those more statistically or mathematically inclined to show me the error of my thinking
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I'm a bit more flexible than that - I've actually had multiple TWOs to go with my single ONE
 
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