Taiwan and China thread.

Rroff · 24 Oct 2022 at 02:52

Not inspiring:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584305471367696384

The recent seeming containment (or straight up disappearing in some cases) of some influential Chinese like Hu Jintao who might have a more moderate/cautious position on Taiwan doesn't encourage me (though possibly they were plotting against Xi and hence the recent drama when he disappeared for a bit) - bit of a red flag actually. From leaks or "leaks" from Russian military leadership they seem to be under the impression China would be kicking things off by the end of this year - but I can't see it as per conventional military position on the ground - it would be unimaginably costly for China to achieve militarily right now if Taiwan didn't roll over.

delta0 · 24 Oct 2022 at 03:06

Rroff said:
Not inspiring:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584305471367696384

The recent seeming containment (or straight up disappearing in some cases) of some influential Chinese like Hu Jintao who might have a more moderate/cautious position on Taiwan doesn't encourage me (though possibly they were plotting against Xi and hence the recent drama when he disappeared for a bit) - bit of a red flag actually. From leaks or "leaks" from Russian military leadership they seem to be under the impression China would be kicking things off by the end of this year - but I can't see it as per conventional military position on the ground - it would be unimaginably costly for China to achieve militarily right now if Taiwan didn't roll over.

Starting to sound like when we were being told Russia was about to invade Ukraine. I wonder if there is going to be some kind of synchronising of effort by Russia and China. Russia dial things up in Ukraine at the same time at China starts their invasion.

Scougar · 24 Oct 2022 at 03:12

Will be interesting to see how 'one china policy' in the US, is versus an ally. Especially one who is a massive supplier of technology.

I wonder if China has now seen:

1) The massive problems in Russia and what sanctions will do to tech
2) The recent removal by the USA of US workers in tech firms causing a potential collapse of tech companies.

.... and has decided to move up whatever timeline they had before.

A2Z · 24 Oct 2022 at 03:53

China is basically everything that is wrong in this world. Its ridiculous that in 2022 a country's leader is allowed to change rules to let himself stay in power indefinitely. Then stack the government only with people loyal to him, and continue to rule as more or less a dictator. Off course it's not the only country in the world that is like this, but I really feel sorry for the Chinese people that have to live there.

Grim5 · 24 Oct 2022 at 06:23

What hasn't been widely reported is that China has revised its growth expectations. Over estimated census data and below replacement birth rates, aging demographics that can't be replaced with migration and degraded economic conditions means the CCP has accepted that its previous growth targets can no longer be reached and instead of becoming the world largest economy, China's new goal is to become a modern socialist country.

China quietly abandons goal of overtaking U.S. economy

The Chinese government also delayed the release of third-quarter GDP data on Tuesday without providing a reason.

www.newsweek.com

RxR · 25 Oct 2022 at 11:24

US fighter pilot arrested for (it looks like) potentially training Chinese

Former US military pilot who worked in China faces extradition after arrest in Australia

The former US citizen was arrested by Australian Federal Police in Orange after a sealed US arrest warrant was issued, with sources saying it relates to the years he spent working in China's aviation sector.

www.abc.net.au

delta0 · 25 Oct 2022 at 11:30

delta0 said:
They will end up doing jail time for it though. The things they learn will certainly be covered by the OSA.

RxR said:
US fighter pilot arrested for (it looks like) potentially training Chinese

Former US military pilot who worked in China faces extradition after arrest in Australia

The former US citizen was arrested by Australian Federal Police in Orange after a sealed US arrest warrant was issued, with sources saying it relates to the years he spent working in China's aviation sector.

www.abc.net.au

They all will end up in jail for it. Not sure what they were thinking

dowie · 25 Oct 2022 at 12:23

RxR said:
US fighter pilot arrested for (it looks like) potentially training Chinese

Former US military pilot who worked in China faces extradition after arrest in Australia

The former US citizen was arrested by Australian Federal Police in Orange after a sealed US arrest warrant was issued, with sources saying it relates to the years he spent working in China's aviation sector.

www.abc.net.au

Would be good if the UK did the same to the apparent ex-RAF pilots training the Chinese too.

StriderX · 25 Oct 2022 at 12:29

dowie said:
Would be good if the UK did the same to the apparent ex-RAF pilots training the Chinese too.

Seems likely to me that some of them will stay? Would have been better to round them up whenever they went abroad without their knowledge before this and now they all know.

May have to treat them as though they're a threat and deal with them accordingly to set an example.

Kill_Phil · 25 Oct 2022 at 12:29

dowie said:
Would be good if the UK did the same to the apparent ex-RAF pilots training the Chinese too.

But we won't. Apparently there is some kind of loophole which is quite frankly ridiculous

delta0 · 25 Oct 2022 at 13:02

Kill_Phil said:
But we won't. Apparently there is some kind of loophole which is quite frankly ridiculous

We will. If we don‘t the Americans will. I don’t see anyway out of this for them.

Feef · 26 Oct 2022 at 23:02

If anyone is interested, the BBC's Newsnight global on Taiwan on Tuesday night was very good, and I say that as someone who is generally critical about the way the BBC report on Taiwan. I don't think there was even a single repeat of the "China views Taiwan as a renegade province to be reunited with the mainland by force if necessary" line.

My favourite part was probably letting the CCP spokesman carry on, largely uninterrupted, while making statements further and further detatched from reality.

Dis86 · 26 Oct 2022 at 23:59

Feef said:
If anyone is interested, the BBC's Newsnight global on Taiwan on Tuesday night was very good, and I say that as someone who is generally critical about the way the BBC report on Taiwan. I don't think there was even a single repeat of the "China views Taiwan as a renegade province to be reunited with the mainland by force if necessary" line.

My favourite part was probably letting the CCP spokesman carry on, largely uninterrupted, while making statements further and further detatched from reality.

Like with Russia I often wonder if they even believe the rubbish they spout. Or think anyone else believes it. Just why bother?

TNA · 27 Oct 2022 at 08:23

Dis86 said:
Like with Russia I often wonder if they even believe the rubbish they spout. Or think anyone else believes it. Just why bother?

One could say that about the conservatives also. Says one thing, 24 hours later does the opposite, yet people seem to love them :cry:

VincentHanna · 27 Oct 2022 at 08:37

TNA said:
One could say that about the conservatives also. Says one thing, 24 hours later does the opposite, yet people seem to love them

All vote against banning fracking.

7 days later, ban fracking.

TNA · 27 Oct 2022 at 08:39

VincentHanna said:
All vote against banning fracking.

7 days later, ban fracking.

Like I often wonder if they even believe the rubbish they spout. Or think anyone else believes it. Just why bother?

RxR · 31 Oct 2022 at 22:20

China Taiwan war date eta estimated between 2025 and 2027

US B-52 bomber deployment may trigger regional arms race, China says

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticises the planned deployment of US B-52 bombers to Tindal Air Base in the Northern Territory and says the move will increase regional tensions.

www.abc.net.au

Scougar · 1 Nov 2022 at 00:10

delta0 said:
They all will end up in jail for it. Not sure what they were thinking

I want to say "Good". Bonkers to do this.

robgmun · 1 Nov 2022 at 00:18

A2Z said:
China is basically everything that is wrong in this world. Its ridiculous that in 2022 a country's leader is allowed to change rules to let himself stay in power indefinitely. Then stack the government only with people loyal to him, and continue to rule as more or less a dictator. Off course it's not the only country in the world that is like this, but I really feel sorry for the Chinese people that have to live there.

I love China, wonderful country and people, I despise the government and its regime. The funny thing is the previous leader was pretty chill, was progressing the country nicely, and bringing China into the 21st century. Then Phoo bear ****** it all up. The difference i felt when i went in 2012 and again in 2018 was stark

Rroff · 1 Nov 2022 at 01:09

RxR said:
China Taiwan war date eta estimated between 2025 and 2027

US B-52 bomber deployment may trigger regional arms race, China says

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticises the planned deployment of US B-52 bombers to Tindal Air Base in the Northern Territory and says the move will increase regional tensions.

www.abc.net.au

2025 to 2027 is around the time China, at prevailing rates, will have progressed to the point where a military option is realistic - not necessarily when they will but I don't think they'll hold off forever.

Not to say they couldn't do it sooner but a less than ideal situation for them and after Ukraine I'd expect they'd be a bit leery of hoping a show of force would have Taiwan folding.