Poll: The EU Referendum: What Will You Vote? (New Poll)

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?


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Soldato
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There are 2 million UK citizens living in various European countries, what happens to them if we leave?

Nothing as the UK passport is one of the top passports to own in the world.
Queen and country cover you if you a UK passport holder. ;)

Why you think they camping in Calais?
 
Soldato
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Really? Insider trading refutes that argument totally. For example, Prince Charles regularly gets insider trading info by asking for cabinet minutes thus maximizing his potential gains arising out of policy choice.

Ah, but it's quite a leap to suggest that instances of wrongdoing qualify the norm for the global state of affairs. That is, just because some players cheat some of the time, all players must necessarily cheat all of the time to keep up, and eventually everyone is in collusion, and the Market is rigged for ever -- remains a problematic proposition. Furthermore, if there were one big conspiracy, surely the cheaters would not lose money, and be able to predict crashes by moving their bets accordingly? Plus there would be no regulation or commercial law to speak of if collusion was the king of the world. I must say, although I can see plenty of bad in people, I am not much of a fan for conspiracies: the explanation nearer to actual truth is often far more banal and stupid; sometimes painful, but that's life.

Things are far less deterministic and certain than people want to believe.

But I won't deny that in any system of exchange there'll be room for clowns and crooks and people who just love to gamble, or idealists running into trouble with a priori arguments and someone else's money.


In response to point 3) also refuted by the fact if oil or financial institutions have a bad month there is either a short term gain (low oil prices) or a medium to long term problem through finance. This is usually where ABS is responsible for a collapse. Banks now have 4x the exposure than they had before the crash for the simple reason nothings changed and in fact banks have become riskier.

I wouldn't treat businesses as individuals nor monopolies as good either; but since I didn't provide an explanation for some points, this may have been missed: 1-9 is a set of precepts of economics which I think need some serious rethinking in a less politicised manner than when they were established. Moreover, this must be done on a European level, with us at the table, or it won't really stick there, let alone further afield. We have to start learning form our mistakes, or face continued, cyclical disaster.

The reality is that we do not have true or a better democracy (AV) and our society is not capitalist but corporatist. TTIP and the legal stance towards Ta dodging finalises the truth of this.

I can't defend the accounting practices of some of the biggest companies out there. I think the way they carry themselves on tax matters is silly, considering the ill will and dismay it generates in the public to whom they sell, for what in reality would be just a few bucks against their bottom line; affecting the public's perception of business and global institutions negatively in the process. Even under the neoliberal conception of the harm principle, this would not be cricket! But an amoral interpretation of the markets allows them to sidestep the problem for a time, even if the economists of that tradition perceive the same problems.

Corporate approach makes sense on paper though (from the point of an isolated agent trying to maximise gains), but it doesn't make such behaviour a public good in itself. Which is why legislators and regulators shouldn't be asleep at the helm in the first place because the public good is precisely in their remit! And to be fair, German courts have already picked up on the most dubious part of TTIP. Expect it to be challenged further, and go back to the EU-wide review if needed.

British courts are far more pro-investor oriented than their European counterparts; if it were solely up to us, we would have signed already, without much of a hoo-ha; and nobody would've been alerted to the asymmetric effects of closed corporate courts/tribunals. Hence my ancient by now point about the benefit of federations and a broad church of opinions within them -- it results in better quality of negotiation outcomes, decision making and accountability, not less.

Further, it's harder and more expensive to audit accounting arrangements for parts of businesses in countries outside the EU. Without common information standards (the so maligned 'red tape') the room for obfuscation increases not lessens.

Regarding political matters, I can't see democratic reforms being easier to pass, or political party/activity funding questions being better answered with sensible regulation, outside the EU. Tories might eventually cripple the union funding model to trip Labour up, but nothing more is forthcoming it seems. And these two issues -- representation and funding -- are more reflective of polarised politics and stunted outcomes rather than anything directly to do with the EU as it is. Personally, I find it somewhat desperate trying to vote Out for the sole reason of spiting the establishment, however construed.

In order for a government to succeed and fight back they need to introduce a tax on UK sales by the corporations operating here. For example if MS make £500m worth of UK profit (without shifting profit onto loss bearing areas) then that 500m should be subject to a corporation tax.

Just 1% of the wealth of the 1% would eradicate all of our problems. Tax avoidance/evasion (there is no difference in my opinion and the words carry almost the same thing) costs the UK a conservative guess cost £100bn+

However, if you unilaterally tax without reform that can expand across global markets, it would be like giving an addict a lump sum of money and telling him to get a life -- it won't work, and his downward spiral towards crisis will continue unabated. And on top of that you always have to account for capital outflow under any changes to the tax regime, and mitigate it if you can. Even Keynes would point out that tax/borrow and spend is only beneficial in so far as it can pay for a better standard of living further down the line (i.e. it can pay for itself and is sustainable on the returns from your investments in the future). Neither would he advocate punitive redistribution to appease the public mood as an end in itself. Which is why I raise a sceptical eyebrow to 'eradicate all of our problems' bit in particular.

We're presently in the sort of situation where there are no magic bullets left, and a lot of hard work is required. This work would be undermined and made more difficult by a Brexit scenario. Once more we would be focused on the short-term outcomes, trying to minimize any transitional effects, patching leaks and stomping on financial forest fires as we go. Whilst people with means to carry on as they were, shall carry on business as usual, within the law the way it is!

itchy said:
We have the best engineers and inventors on the planet

The USA would point to the number of its successful companies before and after Britain was in the EU, and politely disagree.:p Ideas are great, but you have to convert them into solid plans of action and income streams... otherwise you end up working for somebody else.

But jokes aside, itchy, 'feeling good' and 'doing good' are not one and the same. Not to forget that engineering and manufacturing is a very global game these days.
 
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Soldato
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Soldato
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Who are the Scotch??

It's strictly speaking an archaic adjective ('something relating to Scotland') but there are significant enough examples of it being used to refer to Scots as a group of people. More common in old-fashioned American Dialect use, I believe, and probably derives from the word's proper application, as in 'Scotch actor'. For example:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotch-Irish_Americans


But seriously, I'd pay to see Alec v Nige any day! :D
 
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Soldato
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People keep bringing up the '5th economy in the world' point, so I thought I'd post some figures to consider.

GDP tables (all a bit out of date, but usable/the latest available in one place):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) -- here's where we remain number 5 for the moment -- raw output as far as nominal GDP can measure it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) -- probably more useful as an indicator of how well we can do domestically out of our output

Historical data from the ONS via the Guardian for recessions and the short period before ECC/EU membership:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_rJJuTPWB-J8jkRZoeRi3De2tMLBxVcPKN2D-89lkUk/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=10

Commonwealth countries vs the EU:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Nations -- tables are under the 'Elections' heading.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union

Take away the UK from both totals, and compare; which is the bigger market with the greater proportion of larger economies? Perhaps you would add up the Chinese market to bring the total economic space into which we can boldly sally forth roughly on par; but you would still have to contend with:

a) Greater logistical costs and organizational complexities of trade with such a geographically spread out and politically diverse ensemble;
b) You're still optimistically thinking of avoiding tariffs or making good deals with the EU post Brexit on the British and world trade channelled through the bloc;
c) You're very confident in our native aptitude for non-European languages and other caveats involved in selling services to non-EU partners such as China;
d) Hope to avoid granting any favourable immigration arrangements in any trade deals. Which is much harder today than it was even 50 years ago. Like it or not, global trade and movement of people is coupled;
e) Markets and investors think our move's gilded in gold, and throw more cash at us rather than go into a panic;
f) The volume of trade and the balance of trade we can generate from our new position is better or at least on par with our present standing (and prospects);
g) The global security situation does not deteriorate further thus affecting trade, trade deals and practicalities of trade on routes passing our greatest geopolitical rivals;
h) Less developed markets, with lower GDP per capita and purchasing power, actually want our goods and services, and we can cobble together enough of them for long enough to make our 'massive profits'; :p

So on balance, take away decent trade with the EU, replace it with Commonwealth + China, and keep our US + rest of the world - EU trade in tact, and you're still set to shrink, even under the best of conditions; without any larger economic bloc to buffet any recessionary waves to boot. I suppose we'll have to wait and see. I remain unconvinced by the drum-beating Leave enthusiasts though.
 
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Soldato
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So on balance, take away decent trade with the EU, replace it with Commonwealth + China, and keep our US + rest of the world - EU trade in tact, and you're still set to shrink, even under the best of conditions; without any larger economic bloc to buffet any recessionary waves to boot. I suppose we'll have to wait and see. I remain unconvinced by the drum-beating Leave enthusiasts though.

This has been presented time and time again though, people don't want to read facts and statistics that show how it would affect us, they just want to be 'out' of the EU.

The way I see it happening is it biting us well in the backside if the referendum votes to leave. At which point every man woman and child who voted out will immediately blame Cameron, the liberals or everyone else apart from those who voted out.

To sum it up, 80% of yes voters will probably vote that way assuming they can pop out the monday after the election to buy a 100W incandescent bulb for their reading lamp.
 
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Associate
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EU is meant to be an economic union but it fails in this regard, I see it as that we are tied down to the weakest and poorest countries (such as bailing out greece)

- bailing out other countries
- mass immigration and freedom of movement causing unfettered immigration (which causes large costs in itself for housing, rehabilitation, extra policing etc. and ends up a nexus issue economically as it creates more costs)
- the cost of staying in the EU in the first place with yearly fee's
- lack of control on taxation forcing us to pay money back (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...anies-thanks-surprise-surprise-EU-courts.html)
- Health tourism causing huge strains on the NHS
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...and-treatment-leaving-NHS-breaking-point.html
- Benefits from people claiming money for children and family outside the UK that we can't stop due to EU rules.
- obvious lack of control in other areas when setting laws which causes problems and slow down in tackling abuse cases as laws end up going back and forth on whether the EU will approve.

I don't feel it works for us all economically. Lets be honest, the reason business keep telling us to stay in the EU is because they want US to pay the bill for the migrants while they profit from the open market in EU. It's already been proven trickle down economics is a load of horse crap so when we have unfettered immigration, cost of NHS spiralling out control, more benefit claimants (migrants from poor countries have commonly proven to be the hardest to get into work as many struggle to learn our language or are happy to stay on benefits where they can claim for many children) etc. then businesses will promote the EU as an economic benefit but the average UK citizen will probably be worse off and suffer from higher taxes or our welfare state (protection for mentally disabled, benefits, NHS for poor people etc.) will have to get watered down and the service level put to crap with longer and costlier wait times etc.

So other than what I believe is a lack of real economic benefit for the government (companies might benefit but for all the reasons listed above I believe government and citizens won't benefit from EU and will end up worse off) we also end up with a lack of real democracy and sovereignity. It's appalling that brussels wants to rule us from on high without even understanding or giving two craps about how our country works. I've already given examples of how it's failing us on the NHS, it's failing us on our welfare systems (which is mainly to do with benefits but encompasses other parts like elderly care) and the one glove fits all approach has been heavily damaging to these welfare systems. The NHS will end up destroyed and our benefits system watered down to the point of uselessness or have tinkering on the level of the spare bedroom tax that will leave us worse off or in a bad situation. I've used benefits before I'll be honest, when I needed it and was young and lacked experience so it helped keep me afloat when I needed it, I respect that system a lot because I know it works but I feel it is under extreme strain and danger of collapsing by staying in the EU where we can't properly manage this sort of stuff due to random extra costs from things like health tourism but immigration is a nexus issue that bleeds into all these things and it is currently going unchecked.
Like a lot of EU's stupid ideas the schengen border is a ruinous failure, it's had no protection and liberal policies create an abysmal lack of contol which is taking months for the slow acting EU to fix. When all those people jumped into germany as well since Angela Merkel decided it was funny to let any amount in and then have to stop within a month because they mismanaged and under calculated again then they left near a million people open to free border travel within 3 years. They say we will be able to have a 'break' from migration but lets be honest, the amount it costs for us to house, educate, record, manage, create space for massive amounts of immigrants and then have the staff on hand to police and do other things we'll have only just got the money back before round 2 starts. Sweden is going to take 4 more years just to get rid of the migrants that shouldn't have been there in the first place.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/28/sweden-to-expel-up-to-80000-rejected-asylum-seekers
Mass migration is a farce, we lose lots to crime, gangs, prostitution and violence. If the examples of other countries aren't enough to make people open there eyes then they need to actually look at the world from the eyes of those who are living it right now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKAQX74yRyc&feature=youtu.be

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...void-provoking-wear-fewer-clothes-summer.html

http://www.breitbart.com/london/201...000-migrants-could-have-travel-across-europe/
And when the crime and strange activity of disappearing migrants begins then how will it be handled? Well we've already seen that the other countries with political correctness gone mad have essentially stopped policing crime from migrants and refuse to deal with a lot of the crimes mentioned in links I've posted but the UK has also shown already that we would get the same treatment or does the recent rape scandals in rotherham, rochdale, sheffield etc. get forgotten as quickly as they appeared?

When some are treat above the law and migrants are not being properly taken to account like the example above it destroys community cohesion, it breeds racists and racist violence that we don't want in our country, it harms the ability of real migrants to avoid racism and distrust and we get gangs like in Sweden.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35451080
As other videos have shown though, the lack of proper policinfg, the failure to manage migration, the lack of fairness in how locals are treated for even voicing there opinions
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...istian-piquemal-arrested-anti-migrant-protest
it's what will happen here and it's already been proven as we have huge cut backs to the police already, we have scandals which prove a soft touch to migrants, we have forced immigration on a mass scale which we know creates poor standards of integration. The EU mixed with our current political correctness gone mad society is a recipe for disaster as we already have crap like sharia courts causing confusing messages as to social cohesion despite having no legal precedent in UK law.

I'm sorry but the EU is going to be an economic disaster for the UK due to the reasons listed above (our welfare system doesn't work with unfettered migration and abuse cases of countries sending welfare back to hundreds of kids), that's not even counting the bad taxation, bad control on laws (the slower a country can act to remove abuse cases the more it has time to be abused), lack of sovereignity / democracy which will ruin our ability to make personal and country specific decisions that would benefit us, terrible forced migration etc. So economically it's terrible, democratically it's terrible, community cohesion and protection wise it's terrible.

I'll feel sorry for the other EU countries that wanted us to stay in but I'll be honest, I think the EU is a farce and I don't know how we can't negotiate better trade deals with other people without having so many unelected bureaucratic dictators trying to ruin everything good about the UK from on high. I always believe voting in the best interest of the majority rather than just myself so if my examples of how it won't benefit the UK citizens (higher taxes when businesses don't pay for migrations / NHS / Benefits issues), how it won't benefit democracy across europe (it'll poison democracy and leave all of Europe in the hands of unelected bureaucrats with a one glove fits all approach that spares no love for our history as the EU project aims to wipe that out and provide a singular EU style of living), how it won't benefit even the migrants we are forced to take in (the tensions and racism from unfettered migration along with lack of proper policing when migrants commit crimes creating racism and lack of cohesion for the real migrants never mind those that go missing to gangs / child prostitution) then I will be honest in stating that I believe that if we stay in the EU that it will end with a bang and riots and more parties like the SNP and UKIP having to wrestle away political correctness gone mad beating us over the head while being smothered with a unelected and none democratic approach that will leave entire regions with a huge lack of confidence and respect for how we could sleep walk into such a state. It will go bang, as soon as the next economic collapse happens and we've been culturally destroyed, institutionally bankrupted, democratically robbed and then have no money to show for it there will be riots. There will be more scandals and corruption uncovered about extra protection for migrants etc. that will make our blood boil. Even if that doesn't happen so I'm not going to arrogantly proclaim I know the future, I've already provided many examples of how it will still happen on a smaller scale even if not a huge thing but I feel the EU will break down eventually. People want democracy, they want accountability, they want respect and the EU clearly shows very little of that and even if we don't get riots over the lack of democracy then we'll be tied down to the poorest countries of europe and as they have to handle migration issues then we'll see greece bail outs repeated time and again for smaller countries like romania and whatnot.
The EU aims to protect the entire region, in other words we're being dragged down and ripped apart to prop up other countries as if our aid budget wasn't enough. I think the EU is one giant farce and the politicians must be getting bribes to think it's so brilliant, it's been a disaster and I'm voting out. To convince me the EU is a benefit economically you'd have to charter up the cost of everything I stated which is often one of those things pro EU messages will ignore. They'll cost a few bits up but not everything, how can they account for migration they always consistently underestimate or NHS costs they cannot predict? It's utter horse radish that some believe blindly that the open market accommodates every single one of these costs and leaves us far better off too. HOW CAN THEY? When the EU lies and tells us migrants didn't even cause the cologne sex attacks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...n-Cologne-sex-attacks-and-migrant-crisis.html
How can they factor in cost of extra policing for example when they don't even acknowledge it despite wide and commonly reported quotes from the police themselves stating it was a majority of migrants who caused the issue. We won't be economically better off when you factor in the next wave of migration is meant to be even larger and the EU is failing to even pay turkey (who I hate Erdogan but at the moment he's the one stopping them flooding us)
https://euobserver.com/migration/132233
2 and a half months later EU can't even give the billions we promised to try and stem the flow (which by all accounts has already been acknowledged to have not stemmed the flow as much as we wanted anyway). The extra costs aren't stuff you will find in the 'books' which balance the cost of the EU but they are real world costs we face by being in the EU.

TL: DR EU is a farce economically, culturally, politically and everything they try seems to fail or not be managed properly. Sorry if this isn't laid out in the super best way or some bits are a bit heavy sounding or droning, my laptop touchpad caused my message to be deleted at least 4 times trying to type it. It's difficult to stay concise and accurate on the 5th attempt / revision while remembering what you said, which bits were lost etc. So please pretend I wrote this far more eloquently than I did :D
 
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Soldato
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This has been presented time and time again though, people don't want to read facts and statistics that show how it would affect us, they just want to be 'out' of the EU.

The way I see it happening is it biting us well in the backside if the referendum votes to leave. At which point every man woman and child who voted out will immediately blame Cameron, the liberals or everyone else apart from those who voted out.

But of course! I don't think these people will be happy In or Out, really. In fact, I won't be surprised if they continue fighting amongst themselves well past the referendum whilst everyone else attempts to get on with their lives as best they can. The EU seems to have materialised as a big target for the public's feelings of discontent, listlessness and lack of control in their lives and politics; in no small part due to the populist drama over immigration, inability to process globalisation and 'simple answers to hard questions' movement, which always springs up from the woodwork when the hard times press or uncertainty is high. Understandable in parts if you follow their weird echo-chamber logic but misguided, and a highly risky proposition to build a political ideology (or actual policy, if there'll ever offer any) on. Alas, the human race is not immune from mass hysteria, that's for sure.

One can but try to reach the more sensible people on the sidelines, though. I personally think I post more for the lurkers' benefit than anything else.

Anyhow, it's set to be a very dirty and emotional plebiscite indeed. Popcorn and flame-proof jackets at the ready!
 
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Soldato
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But of course! I don't think these people will be happy In or Out, really. In fact, I won't be surprised if they continue fighting amongst themselves well past the referendum whilst everyone else attempts to get on with their lives as best they can. The EU seems to have materialised as a big target for the public's feelings of discontent, listlessness and lack of control in their lives and politics; in no small part due to the populist drama over immigration, inability to process globalisation and 'simple answers to hard questions' movement, which always springs up from the woodwork when the hard times press or uncertainty is high. Understandable in parts if you follow their weird echo-chamber logic but misguided, and a highly risky proposition to build a political ideology (or actual policy, if there'll ever offer any) on. Alas, the human race is not immune from mass hysteria, that's for sure.

One can but try to reach the more sensible people on the sidelines, though. I personally think I post more for the lurkers' benefit than anything else.

Anyhow, it's set to be a very dirty and emotional plebiscite indeed. Popcorn and flame-proof jackets at the ready!

I think what the sensible will do is ignore the arm flappers on both sides of the argument whom have a tenancy to scream hyperbolic walls of text with maybe a few sanctimonious insults that only serve to make them irrelevant in a debate in a desperate attempt to legitimise themselves and come to a sensible conclusion.

Sensible conclusion is:

Whenever politicians change something, some lose and some will win. It is impossible to make changes in politics without negatively affecting some of the people.

So the decision is do you think that on balance we will gain more than we lose by leaving?

For me the answers yes, I will vote to leave.

Flap on my man.
 
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Caporegime
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"Normal" people should not be given this much power in a Referendum because.....

I hope we dont leave the EU.

im not sure of the ramifications to me being in Sweden as a UK citizen after a split.

Probably more paperwork and a big gold 6 pointed star on my jacket...
 
Soldato
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The Pro-EU side are really taking a gamble with the negative campaigning. Look at the recent comments about the EU being likely to "punish" us if we left.

Surely that sends a completely unintended message to Joe Public about the EU establishment? It makes them sound a tad vindictive, no?
 
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