That all depends on who you are getting the statistics from. One side says one thing another something else.
Having come from literally not making a phone to one of the key players I am sure they can innovate enough to at least keep up there... If not they go the way of Windows Mobile 6.5 and I am sure Apple's shareholders don't want that!
With regards to tablets well the iPad has a lead
on all other tablets. We have people making tablets that compete with the iPad that was released nearly a year ago. The 2nd Gen iPad can't be far off and everybody plays catchup again.
The odd thing is from a purely technical point there are phones and tablets that are better on their own rights than the iPad/iPhone yet everybody still seems to want to be the next iPhone/iPad killer. That's where they are going wrong if you ask me.
This 30% is a risky game Apple are playing. Only time will tell if it was a shrewd move. If the Android market unifies and the Marketplace becomes a threat to the App Store Apple may have to shift tactics. It's not like they've had to do this before or anything...