'Contact lost' with Malaysia Airlines plane

you can work with two, and you stated you cannot, you need three.

You're still thinking of a 2-dimensional system.
Technically, 3 satellites wont give an exact position, there are 2 optional points but one of them will be a long way away from Earth so it can be discounted.
Most GPS devices will work fine with 3 satellites but you need 4 to get an exact position.

The entire debate is moot, as there is only one satellite, thus why they are searching along hundreds of Kms of length.

I agree, lets leave it there.
 
Since I had nothing better to do i did the maths. Using the formula here, making R the satellite in geostationary orbit and r the planes maximum height (rounded down to 12000m from 12192m to make my life easier), it gives a length a of 721.2km.

I'm assuming that the minimum height the plane could be is at ground level, or as near as makes no difference, so if you were to draw a circle to represent the earth, its centre would be the same as the right hand circle, and it would have a radius such that it would only intersect with the left hand satellite circle at one point. Just like touch's diagram, but rotated anticlockwise by 90 degrees.

If we knew the plane's height then you could use the formula to get a 3D arc like you have in the map a few posts above, but we really cant say for sure what its height was at any point in its flight as far as I know
 
Since I had nothing better to do i did the maths. Using the formula here, making R the satellite in geostationary orbit and r the planes maximum height (rounded down to 12000m from 12192m to make my life easier), it gives a length a of 721.2km.

I'm assuming that the minimum height the plane could be is at ground level, or as near as makes no difference, so if you were to draw a circle to represent the earth, its centre would be the same as the right hand circle, and it would have a radius such that it would only intersect with the left hand satellite circle at one point. Just like touch's diagram, but rotated anticlockwise by 90 degrees.

If we knew the plane's height then you could use the formula to get a 3D arc like you have in the map a few posts above, but we really cant say for sure what its height was at any point in its flight as far as I know

Yes it is the width of the 3d arc that is determined by its height, not the length of the arc.
Precisely.
If we had a second satellite, then the two arc would intersect. They wouldn't intersect over a distance of several hundred Kms.
Their intersection points would be subject to 'width' governed by the height of the plane, not subject to 'length'.

In a proper 4d/3d system as touch was suggesting you need more points, but you don't in this case, as the entire picture is not a proper 3d, but 3d projected onto a curved surface.
 
HERE IT IS!!

<<<After looking at all the details, it is my opinion that MH370 snuck out of the Bay of Bengal using SIA68 as the perfect cover. It entered radar coverage already in the radar shadow of the other 777, stayed there throughout coverage, and then exited SIA68’s shadow and then most likely landed in one of several land locations north of India and Afghanistan.>>>

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/po...ing-sia68-sq68

Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

Monday, March 17, 2014 - 12:01 AM EST
UPDATED: Monday, March 17, 2014 - 9:00 AM EST
Typo was made during the conversion of UTC times. Meeting of SIA68 and MH320 occurred at 18:00UTC - 18:15UTC. MH320 dropped off of civilian radar at 17:22UTC.
By: Keith Ledgerwood
As the search for missing flight Malaysian Airlines flight 370 drags on into the 10th day, so many questions continue to remain unanswered about how and why the airliner could have disappeared while seemingly under the control of a skilled pilot intent on making it invisible. With satellite pings showing where the plane could be after more than seven hours of flight, speculation has arisen that the plane could be on the ground anywhere along a path from northern Thailand to the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
The major roadblock to this theory has been the insistence from India and Pakistan that their radar network showed no such unidentified aircraft entering or traversing their airspace. It would seem highly unlikely given such information that a Boeing 777 could indeed slip through undetected.
As a hobby pilot and aviation enthusiast, a theory began to form in my own mind on this 10th day as all of the latest information began to trickle in slowly through media outlets globally. After being unable to escape the idea that it may have happened, I began to do some analysis and research and what I discovered was very troubling to me!
Starting with a set of facts that have been made available publically and verified over the past few days, I first plotted MH370’s course onto an aviation IFR map which shows the airways and waypoints used to navigate the skies. I plotted the point where it stopped transmitting ADS-B information at 1721UTC. I then plotted the Malaysian military radar track from that point towards “VAMPI”, “GIVAL”, and then onward toward “IGREX” on P628 ending with where the plane should be at 1815UTC when military radar lost contact.
That chart looks like this:

tumblr_inline_n2kaf7z53m1suyqf0.png


Nothing profound there… but then I looked to see what other planes were in the air at 1815UTC and I looked to see exactly where they were positioned in the sky and where they were flying. The picture started to develop when I discovered that another Boeing 777 was en-route from Singapore over the Andaman Sea.

tumblr_inline_n2kaflblZF1suyqf0.png


Source:flightradar24 .com

I investigated further and plotted the exact coordinates of Singapore Airlines flight number 68’s location at 1815UTC onto the aviation map. I quickly realized that SIA68 was in the immediate vicinity as the missing MH370 flight at precisely the same time. Moreover, SIA68 was en-route on a heading towards the same IGREX waypoint on airway P628 that the Malaysian military radar had shown MH370 headed towards at precisely the same time.

tumblr_inline_n2l0it1rMg1suyqf0.png

Source: SkyVector.com
It became apparent as I inspected SIA68’s flight path history that MH370 had maneuvered itself directly behind SIA68 at approximately 18:00UTC and over the next 15 minutes had been following SIA68. All the pieces of my theory had been fitting together with the facts that have been publically released and I began to feel a little uneasy.
Singapore Airlines Flight 68 proceeded across the Andaman Sea into the Bay of Bengal and finally into India’s airspace. From there it appears to have proceeded across India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and finally Turkmenistan before proceeding onward across Europe to its final destination of Barcelona, Spain.
This map depicts the approximate flight path of SIA flight 68 on that particular day. Additional detail will be required from each countries aviation authorities to establish exact particulars of the route.

tumblr_inline_n2kagsCjSF1suyqf0.png



So by now, you may have caught on or you may be scratching your head and wondering if I’ve gone insane! How does SIA68 have anything to do with MH370 disappearing? Remember the one challenge that is currently making everyone doubt that MH370 actually flew to Turkmenistan, Iran, China, or Kyrgyzstan? That challenge is the thought that MH370 couldn’t make it through several key airspaces such as India or Afghanistan without being detected by the military.
It is my belief that MH370 likely flew in the shadow of SIA68 through India and Afghanistan airspace. As MH370 was flying “dark” without transponder / ADS-B output, SIA68 would have had no knowledge that MH370 was anywhere around and as it entered Indian airspace, it would have shown up as one single blip on the radar with only the transponder information of SIA68 lighting up ATC and military radar screens.
Wouldn’t the SIA68 flight have detected MH370? NO! The Boeing 777 utilizes a TCAS system for traffic avoidance; the system would ordinarily provide alerts and visualization to pilots if another airplane was too close. However that system only operates by receiving the transponder information from other planes and displaying it for the pilot. If MH370 was flying without the transponder, it would have been invisible to SIA68.
In addition, the TCAS system onboard MH370 would have enabled the pilot(s) to easily locate and approach SIA68 over the Straits of Malacca as they appeared to have done. The system would have shown them the flight’s direction of travel and the altitude it was traveling which would have enabled them to perfectly time an intercept right behind the other Boeing 777. Here is a picture of a TCAS system onboard a 777.

tumblr_inline_n2kahk8eJe1suyqf0.png



How does this solve the mystery??? We know MH370 didn’t fly to Spain! Once MH370 had cleared the volatile airspaces and was safe from being detected by military radar sites in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan it would have been free to break off from the shadow of SIA68 and could have then flown a path to it’s final landing site. There are several locations along the flight path of SIA68 where it could have easily broken contact and flown and landed in Xingjian province, Kyrgyzstan, or Turkmenistan. Each of these final locations would match up almost perfectly with the 7.5 hours of total flight time and trailing SIA68. In addition, these locations are all possibilities that are on the “ARC” and fit with the data provided by Inmarsat from the SATCOM’s last known ping at 01:11UTC.
There are too many oddities in this whole story that don’t make sense if this theory isn’t the answer in my opinion. Why did MH370 fly a seemingly haphazard route and suddenly start heading northwest towards the Andaman Islands on P628? If not for this reason, it seems like a rather odd maneuver. The timing and evasive actions seem deliberate. Someone went through great lengths to attempt to become stealthy and disable ACARS, transponder/ADS-B (even though SATCOM to Inmarsat was left powered).
After looking at all the details, it is my opinion that MH370 snuck out of the Bay of Bengal using SIA68 as the perfect cover. It entered radar coverage already in the radar shadow of the other 777, stayed there throughout coverage, and then exited SIA68’s shadow and then most likely landed in one of several land locations north of India and Afghanistan.
 
Really like that above theory. Once again, it says nothing about how the passengers didn't call out, but maybe they were all knocked out or no-one had phone coverage. I'm still firmly going with the fact that the plane landed in Kazakhstan or thereabouts [mainstream theory support].
 
In a proper 4d/3d system as touch was suggesting you need more points, but you don't in this case, as the entire picture is not a proper 3d, but 3d projected onto a curved surface.

It's not 2D projecting onto a 3D surface, it's a 2D plane intersecting a 3D sphere.

I'll do another diagram to explain, because that wasnt very clear :p

edit: here we go
bgpqFNF.png

Perspective isnt quite right on the circle, but you get the idea.
With 2 satellites, plane could be at any point on that circle. The curve of the circle is very flat near the earth, so any small changes in altitude can move the plane a large distance along the line.
 
Last edited:
Last edited:
This exact scenario was proposed on AV Herald quite a few days ago. Although I agree this scenario is feasible, if somewhat improbable prima facie, there is an inconsistency:

In addition, the TCAS system onboard MH370 would have enabled the pilot(s) to easily locate and approach SIA68 over the Straits of Malacca as they appeared to have done. The system would have shown them the flight’s direction of travel and the altitude it was traveling which would have enabled them to perfectly time an intercept right behind the other Boeing 777

Even though he admits himself earlier that the transponder had been switched off earlier in the Gulf of Thailand:

I plotted the point where it stopped transmitting ADS-B information at 1721UTC

So, apart from having to find the SIA flight by sight (although they should have had a pretty good idea of it's path, altitude, and timing) over the Straits of Malacca instead of with TCAS, it only requires a leap of faith in terms of vision, planning, and execution.
 
You need a minimum of 3 to get a location.
You cant get a location without altitude, this is 3D space.

Well I don't envisage that begin a problem for what it would be used for... The plane is probably on the ground. That or still levitating in space, if that's the case just look up... ;)

EDIT: Just read through the previous page! :eek:
 
Last edited:
HERE IT IS!!

.

I may have missed something. But most primary radar can detect close targets, so it wouldn't have been able to follow it for so long without a defence radar (depending on the radars used) for so long. It would've pinged up eventually, showing as an unrecognised aircraft (due to no IFF/MSSR)
 
Full article has gone 'URL not found'.

You'd have to do a custom TCAS implementation with just a receiver (no responses) and hack the code about, but it is feasible.
Certainly seems to point towards government conspiracy rather than a sole nut job if it's true. Why bother otherwise, and what did they want with the plane. It's been mentioned a few times about the playing having a group of weapons engineers onboard. Is there any truth to this?
 
As for the mobile phones, what about a small signal jammer ? How big are they ? Could you disguise one as a laptop ? The two Iranians on false passports have at least one laptop bag between them. Cockpit door stays locked, nobody knows the Iranians are involved. Pilot says "We've been diverted", everybody is calm.

[tfh]Do they want the Freescale guys ? (hope they don't need tech to set off enriched uranium) or just a jet to fly into Israel ?[/tfh]
 
Back
Top Bottom