Chances of UKIP winning General Election?

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We can go round in circles all day. I could well be wrong. My personal opinion is that it is a con. Do we have an affect on it? Yes, most probably. I never said we had NO influence. How much influenece do we have? I think it is borderline impossible to say with any real accuracy just how much we contribute to the changing climate.

Slightly off at a tangent, the Deepwater Horizon incident in 2010. People were shouting from the rooftops how much we have messed up this planet, how Florida's / Gulf of Mexico's coast has been ruined. You go there now, or even just a year after the event, you would never have thought it was center stage to the worlds biggest accidental marine oil spill. The planet will look after itself.
You seem reluctant to admit that the release of gases by humans has already been proven to have huge potential environmental impact (via CFC's & the ozone layer) - undermining the popular argument that we are not really able to make an impact with the release of gases.

Regarding the second point, it's not really the issue - if 'some people' express over the top concerns isn't the same as thousands of climatologies expressing a concern. If anything it undermines that view further as it shows that the average person doesn't know **** about these issues & tends to over-react with visible pollution (oil, black smoke) & under-react to invisible pollution (Co2).
 
Depends what you are trying to justify. If a Government was going to create a tax for individuals / companies / sectors for 'contributing to the distruction of the Earth', I would like them to be fairly accurate before taking my money.

Turn it around then. Tax individuals/businesses that are not promoting or actively pursuing a better future for us all.
 
If anything it undermines that view further as it shows that the average person doesn't know **** about these issues & tends to over-react with visible pollution (oil, black smoke) & under-react to invisible pollution (Co2).

It's really funny when people whine about all the horrid smoke that comes out of planes and nuclear plants (for those who don't know it's steam).
 
The planet will look after itself.

This is pretty much the only sensible thing you've said on this subject.

The planet will look after itself, just not necessarily with us on it.

Its a real pity climate change denial idiots are gambling with their childrens and grandchildrens futures not their own.

Yes there will be hysterical opinions on the fringes but when so many respected scientists say there may be something in this I think it's worth paying attention to.

Plus it is undeniable that we have pumped insane amounts of chemicals into the atmosphere and once we've seen the effects fully it could well be too late to do anything about it.

But I tell you what, the easy thing to do is to believe it's some sort of conspiracy, that the government are out to get you, that you can carry on doing exactly what you like with no consequences, that immigrants are the route of all evil, that europe is bad, that benefits claimants are scum and that you can hold off deciding whether to have a wind power generator near your house until you're knee deep in water just in case it damages the house "value". Its so petty and small minded it makes me want to scream.

Its moronic and as someone else said, it's a strong argument against democracy.

By the way, you know scientists don't gather in their hollowed out volcano to decide what these things are called? I doubt very much that it was by concensus that the climate change situation was named as such, or global warming. More likely the press as they need a catchy slogan.

In fact I suspect the reason the general term has migrated from global warming to climate change (and is now heading off towards "extreme weather events") is that it was too easy for idiots to say "but I like it warm" or say after a bad summer "well thats that then, no more global warming" when the differences we're talking about are tiny, nothing you could feel and don't come along with a bucket and spade handing out kiss me quick hats.

Honestly, I despair.... all those scientists, all those convinced politicians, all those heads of states, all those people living through the effects in parts of the world too remote for the daily mail to find celebrities in might all be wrong... but what if they're not?

but never let that divert us from our collective cause of doing absolutely **** all to change our lives until it's too late.
 
This is pretty much the only sensible thing you've said on this subject.

The planet will look after itself, just not necessarily with us on it.

Its a real pity climate change denial idiots are gambling with their childrens and grandchildrens futures not their own.

Yes there will be hysterical opinions on the fringes but when so many respected scientists say there may be something in this I think it's worth paying attention to.

Plus it is undeniable that we have pumped insane amounts of chemicals into the atmosphere and once we've seen the effects fully it could well be too late to do anything about it.

But I tell you what, the easy thing to do is to believe it's some sort of conspiracy, that the government are out to get you, that you can carry on doing exactly what you like with no consequences, that immigrants are the route of all evil, that europe is bad, that benefits claimants are scum and that you can hold off deciding whether to have a wind power generator near your house until you're knee deep in water just in case it damages the house "value". Its so petty and small minded it makes me want to scream.

Its moronic and as someone else said, it's a strong argument against democracy.

By the way, you know scientists don't gather in their hollowed out volcano to decide what these things are called? I doubt very much that it was by concensus that the climate change situation was named as such, or global warming. More likely the press as they need a catchy slogan.

In fact I suspect the reason the general term has migrated from global warming to climate change (and is now heading off towards "extreme weather events") is that it was too easy for idiots to say "but I like it warm" or say after a bad summer "well thats that then, no more global warming" when the differences we're talking about are tiny, nothing you could feel and don't come along with a bucket and spade handing out kiss me quick hats.

Honestly, I despair.... all those scientists, all those convinced politicians, all those heads of states, all those people living through the effects in parts of the world too remote for the daily mail to find celebrities in might all be wrong... but what if they're not?

but never let that divert us from our collective cause of doing absolutely **** all to change our lives until it's too late.

It's not that I am in complete denial, or think that it is some kind of warped Government conspiracy. Just the extent of which we are contributing factors. I am all for cleaning up the planet, finding better/cleaner/safer alternatives, why wouldn't I be. I just don't buy into all this doomsday stuff 'If we don't change soon the planet will be destroyed', 'Mankind is the cause of global warming', etc.

The unfortunate thing is that none of us will be around to see who was right? Neither will our children, or their children, or their children.

Oh.. and I don't read the daily mail *shudder*
 
It's completely correct, the medieval warm period was hotter than today and the little ice age was colder, temperatures have also changed more rapidly than today.

A lot of the scaremongering you see today is down to one man called "Mann" (no joke) who created a climate graph in the late nineties by splicing together loads of different data sources, this gave a few odd results, first he normalized all the historical data so the medieval warm period and little ice age are almost non existent and vastly under represented on the graph. Secondly he stopped using his main data set (tree rings) near the end and tacked on the end of a different graph form a different source which then gave it a massive kick up (emphasized by the previous data being normalized) which caused the graph to gain the nickname the "Hockey Stick".

This graph has since been refuted due to it's normalized historical data being shown to be grossly misrepresented, and it's "Hockey Stick" kick at the end not matching valid data (the majority of his data was gathered using tree rings up until the last decade or two which then changed to a different data set causing the kick, however real tree ring data gathered from this period years later had no correlation with the kick and in fact carried on as normal).



The MWP may have been warmer in some part of the world, namely Europe and the LIA was cooler in Europe than now. But there is little evidence for widespread global MWP or LIA and even the MWP was unlikely to be as warm as current temperatures. The MWP was likely a period with less Atlantic influence in Europe leading to warmer summers but colder winters, so the average was similar today but with greater variance.

As to the rest of what you say, it is pure drivel. I stopped reading when you started complaining at Mann. The hockey stick graph has been independently proven time and time again by multiple leading scientists, institutions, independent in. The contention only exists in conspiracy theorist and denialist nutjob's heads, the science is clear and unequivocal. The evidence is insurmountable. Denying such hard science just makes you look like a clueless fool.
 
I stopped reading when you started complaining at Mann.

Pity you could have learnt something.


The hockey stick graph has been independently proven time and time again by multiple leading scientists, institutions, independent in. The contention only exists in conspiracy theorist and denialist nutjob's heads

Well if by "conspiracy theorist and denialist nutjob's" you mean respected scientist's that have proven with supporting data the mistakes he made, the errors of his methods and what the correct results should be, then yeah whatever.
 
They're only contesting for 12ish constituencies. It's more likely they'll win no seats that win a general election.
 
It's not that I am in complete denial, or think that it is some kind of warped Government conspiracy. Just the extent of which we are contributing factors. I am all for cleaning up the planet, finding better/cleaner/safer alternatives, why wouldn't I be. I just don't buy into all this doomsday stuff 'If we don't change soon the planet will be destroyed', 'Mankind is the cause of global warming', etc.

The unfortunate thing is that none of us will be around to see who was right? Neither will our children, or their children, or their children.

Oh.. and I don't read the daily mail *shudder*

Neither do I it's why I always use it as an example of the worst of humanity.

And I sort of see your point but again I don't think any of the serious people in the field are saying we'll destroy the planet or wipe out mankind, just make it much harder to live here in far fewer areas and why wouldn't we take that seriously?

The fact that some of my gas may come from Russia and my diesel from the Middle East tells me all I need to know about being self sufficient. These resources are going to run out sooner rather than later and we have to do some business with some pretty mental people so when you throw in wrecking the planet and submerging the Maldives before I get chance to go is enough to have my full attention.

I also think on balance it's very likely the crap we've shoved in the air since the industrial revolution is doing us serious harm both right now with respiratory issues/premature deaths and in the future with global whatever you want to call it. I'm prepared to do something about it, my conscience will be pretty clear.
 
The fact that some of my gas may come from Russia and my diesel from the Middle East tells me all I need to know about being self sufficient. These resources are going to run out sooner rather than later and we have to do some business with some pretty mental people so when you throw in wrecking the planet and submerging the Maldives before I get chance to go is enough to have my full attention.

I also think on balance it's very likely the crap we've shoved in the air since the industrial revolution is doing us serious harm both right now with respiratory issues/premature deaths and in the future with global whatever you want to call it. I'm prepared to do something about it, my conscience will be pretty clear.

They are definitely finite resources, when they will run out is another argument altogether.

I hear Greenland is becoming more inhabitable, maybe that will be the new Maldives? ha!

Cleaner/ viable alteratives though. We seem to lack them. Solar inefficient, especially in the UK :rolleyes:

Wind? Jesus. That was a complete fail. All those wind farms at sea, constant maintanence. Minimal lifespan.

Wave? Even more expensive than wind.

About time we all adopt nuclear :D
 
IWhen all the nuts were screaming about the Antarctic melting and possibly flooding the globe, the Arctic was in fact increasing in size. Also its's common knowledge that melting floating ice does not increase water levels.

I don't know when climate change deniers started picking up on this argument but it shows the kind of scientific ignorance that puts them on par with creationists.

Yes, ice floats on water and doesn't increase the level of the water as it melts. However, a large proportion of the polar ice is currently residing on land. Antarctica is a whole continent. This land-based ice will melt into the seas and oceans, thus increasing the sea level significantly.

Anyone who denies anthropogenic climate change based on the current evidence is clearly burying their head in the sand.
 
Pity you could have learnt something.




Well if by "conspiracy theorist and denialist nutjob's" you mean respected scientist's that have proven with supporting data the mistakes he made, the errors of his methods and what the correct results should be, then yeah whatever.

I'm not going to waste my time with this childish conspiracy garbage.
Go learn some facts:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graph
 
They are definitely finite resources, when they will run out is another argument altogether.

I hear Greenland is becoming more inhabitable, maybe that will be the new Maldives? ha!

Cleaner/ viable alteratives though. We seem to lack them. Solar inefficient, especially in the UK :rolleyes:

Wind? Jesus. That was a complete fail. All those wind farms at sea, constant maintanence. Minimal lifespan.

Wave? Even more expensive than wind.

About time we all adopt nuclear :D


Except for the 10 millionth time many green energies are far cheaper than nuclear. And we already have adopted nuclear!
 
This is pretty much the only sensible thing you've said on this subject.

The planet will look after itself, just not necessarily with us on it.

Its a real pity climate change denial idiots are gambling with their childrens and grandchildrens futures not their own.

Yes there will be hysterical opinions on the fringes but when so many respected scientists say there may be something in this I think it's worth paying attention to.

Plus it is undeniable that we have pumped insane amounts of chemicals into the atmosphere and once we've seen the effects fully it could well be too late to do anything about it.

But I tell you what, the easy thing to do is to believe it's some sort of conspiracy, that the government are out to get you, that you can carry on doing exactly what you like with no consequences, that immigrants are the route of all evil, that europe is bad, that benefits claimants are scum and that you can hold off deciding whether to have a wind power generator near your house until you're knee deep in water just in case it damages the house "value". Its so petty and small minded it makes me want to scream.

Its moronic and as someone else said, it's a strong argument against democracy.

By the way, you know scientists don't gather in their hollowed out volcano to decide what these things are called? I doubt very much that it was by concensus that the climate change situation was named as such, or global warming. More likely the press as they need a catchy slogan.

In fact I suspect the reason the general term has migrated from global warming to climate change (and is now heading off towards "extreme weather events") is that it was too easy for idiots to say "but I like it warm" or say after a bad summer "well thats that then, no more global warming" when the differences we're talking about are tiny, nothing you could feel and don't come along with a bucket and spade handing out kiss me quick hats.

Honestly, I despair.... all those scientists, all those convinced politicians, all those heads of states, all those people living through the effects in parts of the world too remote for the daily mail to find celebrities in might all be wrong... but what if they're not?

but never let that divert us from our collective cause of doing absolutely **** all to change our lives until it's too late.


Here are UKIP`s thoughts on AGW I was wondering what part of it you dispute?

“Global warming: is it just a scam?

“The IPCC’s 1990 First Assessment Report made wildly-exaggerated projections of how global temperature would rise. Yet for the past 15 years [now nigh on 18 years] there has been no statistically-significant “global warming” at all, as a leading IPCC scientist has now admitted. For nine years there has been a rapid cooling trend. None of the IPCC’s computer models predicted that.

“The 1995 Second Assessment Report, in the scientists’ final draft, said five times there was no discernible human influence on climate. Yet one man rewrote the report, replacing all five statements with a single statement saying precisely the opposite. He later said IPCC processes permitted this single-handed rewrite, which has been the official policy ever since.

“The 2001 Third Assessment Report contained a graph contradicting the First Report by falsely abolishing the medieval warm period, which, like the Roman, Minoan, and Holocene optima, and 7500 of the past 11,400 years, and each of the four previous interglacial warm periods, and most of the past 600 million years, was warmer than today. Some 800 scientists from more than 460 institutions in 42 countries over 25 years have written peer-reviewed, learned papers providing evidence that the Middle Ages were warmer than today.

“The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report’s key conclusion that, with 90% confidence, most of the warming since 1950 was manmade is disproven by measurements. A natural decline in global cloud cover from 1983-2001 (Pinker et al., 2005) caused most of that warming.

“The IPCC’s false “90% confidence” estimate was not reached by scientists: it was decided by a show of hands among political representatives who had few scientific qualifications.

“A lead author of the Fourth Assessment Report admits that, “to influence governments”, he knowingly inserted a falsehood to the effect that the Himalayas will be ice-free in 25 years.

“Many other false conclusions of the IPCC were authored not by scientists but by campaigning journalists, members of environmental propaganda groups or IPCC bureaucrats.

“The first table of figures in the IPCC’s 2007 Report did not add up. Bureaucrats had inserted it, overstating tenfold 40 years’ contributions of Greenland and Antarctic ice to sea-level rise.

“The IPCC’s conclusion that CO2 has a major warming effect is false. In the pre-Cambrian era 750 million years ago the Earth was an ice-planet, with glaciers at sea level at the Equator: yet atmospheric CO2 concentration was 300,000 ppmv – 700 times today’s 388 ppmv. If CO2 had the large warming effect the IPCC imagines, the glaciers could not have been there.

“In the Cambrian era 550 million years ago, CO2 concentration was 7000 ppmv (IPCC, 2001): yet that was when the first calcite corals achieved algal symbiosis. In the Jurassic era 175 million years ago, CO2 concentration was 6000 ppmv (IPCC, 2001): yet that was when the first aragonite corals came into existence. While the oceans continue to run over rocks, they must remain pronouncedly alkaline. Ocean “acidification” is a chemical impossibility.

“Many peer-reviewed papers (e.g. Douglass et al., 2004, 2008, 2009; Schwartz, 2007; Monckton, 2008; Lindzen & Choi, 2009) show that the IPCC has exaggerated the warming effect of greenhouse gases up to 7-fold. Without that exaggeration, there is no climate crisis.

“The economics of global warming

“Millions have died of starvation, or are menaced by it, because the world’s governments have unwisely trusted the UN’s climate panel (the IPCC) and the self-serving national scientific institutions that have profiteered by parroting its now-discredited findings.

“The World Bank has reported that three-quarters of the doubling of world food prices that occurred two years ago is directly attributable to the global dash for biofuels.

“Herr Ziegler, the UN’s Right-to-Food Rapporteur, has said that while millions are starving the diversion of farmland from food to biofuels is “a crime against humanity”.

“Lord Stern’s discredited report on climate economics unrealistically adopted a near-zero discount rate for appraisal of “investment” in carbon-dioxide mitigation and doubled the IPCC’s already-exaggerated high-end estimate of the warming to be expected from CO2. Without these grave economic and scientific errors, no case for spending any taxpayers’ money on mitigation of CO2 emissions can be made.

“A carbon-trading scheme that sets a low price for the right to emit a ton of carbon dioxide is merely a tax and does not affect the climate, while a high price drives our jobs and industries overseas to countries which emit more CO2 than us, raising mankind’s global CO2 footprint. The chief profiteers from carbon trading are banks.

“A steelworks at Redcar is closing with the loss of 1700 jobs, because the European carbon-trading scheme has made it uneconomic. Precisely the same steelworks will be re-erected in India. Net effect on the climate: nil. Net effect on British workers’ jobs: catastrophic.

“If we were to shut down the entire global carbon economy altogether, and go back to the Stone Age but without even the right to light a carbon-emitting fire in our caves, it would take 41 years to forestall just 1 C° of “global warming”. The cost is disproportionate.

“Even if the IPCC were right in imagining that a doubling of CO2 concentration will cause as much as 3.26 ± 0.69 C° of “global warming”, adaptation as and if necessary would be orders of magnitude cheaper and more cost-effective than attempting to limit CO2 emissions.

“Global warming gurus humbled

“Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, who chairs IPCC’s climate science panel, is a railroad engineer. The Charity Commission is investigating TERI-Europe, a charity of which Pachauri and his predecessor as IPCC science chairman were trustees. The charity filed false accounts three years running, under-declaring its income by many hundreds of thousands of pounds.

“Dr. “Phil” Jones, director of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, on which the IPCC has relied for its global temperature record, has stepped down after a whistleblower published emails between him and other leading IPCC scientists revealing manipulation, concealment and intended destruction of scientific results.

“Dr. Jones has admitted that his Unit has lost much of the data on which the IPCC relies. The “Climategate” files show his Unit received millions in increased taxpayer funding so that it could investigate “global warming”.

“Al Gore has made hundreds of millions from “global warming”, and may become the first climate-change billionaire. In 2007 a High Court judge found nine errors in his film serious enough to require 77 pages of corrective guidance to be sent to every school in England.

“On Gore’s notion that sea level would imminently rise by 20 feet (6.1 m), the judge ruled: “The Armageddon scenario that he depicts is not based on any scientific view.” IPCC (2007) projects sea-level rise of 1-2 ft by 2100: Mörner (2004, 2010) projects just 4 ± 4 in.

“Gore said a scientific study had found polar bears dying as they swam to find ice. In fact, Monnett & Gleason (2006) had reported just four bears killed in a bad storm. For 30 years there has been no decline in sea-ice in the Beaufort Sea, where the bears died. There are many times more polar bears today than in 1940.

“Gore said Mount Kilimanjaro’s glacier had lost much of its ice because of “global warming”. In fact, the cause was desiccation of the atmosphere caused by regional cooling (Molg et al., 2003). Mean summit temperature has averaged –7 °C for 30 years and, in that time, summit temperature has never risen above –1.6 °C. The Fürtwängler glacier at the summit began receding in the 1880s, long before mankind could have had any influence over the climate. Half the glacier had gone before Hemingway wrote The Snows of Kilimanjaro in 1936.

“What is to be done

“Royal Commission on global warming science and economics

“UKIP would appoint a Royal Commission on global warming science and economics, under a High Court Judge, with advocates on either side of the case, to examine and cross-examine the science and economics of global warming with all the evidential rigour of a court of law.

“The remit of the Royal Commission would be to decide –

Ø “Whether and to what degree the IPCC has exaggerated climate sensitivity to CO2 or other greenhouse gases;

Ø “Whether and under what conditions, if any, the IPCC’s imagined consequences of the present rate of atmospheric CO2 enrichment will be beneficial or harmful;

Ø “Whether and under what conditions, if any, mitigation of global warming by reducing carbon emissions will be cheaper and more cost-effective than adaptation as, and if, necessary;

Ø “Whether and under what conditions any emissions-trading scheme can make any appreciable difference to the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, and whether and to what degree, if any, any such difference would affect global surface temperature.

“Other climate-change measures

“Pending the report of the Royal Commission, UKIP would immediately –

Ø “Repeal the Climate Change Act, and close the Climate Change Department;

Ø “Halt all UK contributions to the IPCC and to the UN Framework Convention;

Ø “Halt all UK contributions to any EU climate-change policy, including carbon trading;

Ø “Freeze all grant aid for scientific research into “global warming”.

“In any event, UKIP would immediately –

Ø “Commission enough fossil-fuelled and nuclear power stations to meet demand;

Ø “Cease to subsidize wind-farms, on environmental and economic grounds;

Ø “Cease to subsidize any environmental or “global-warming” pressure-groups;

Ø “Forbid public authorities to make any “global-warming”-related expenditure;

Ø “Relate Met Office funding to the accuracy of its forecasts;

Ø “Ban global warming propaganda, such as Gore’s movie, in schools;

Ø “Divert a proportion of the billions now wasted on the non-problem of global warming towards solving the world’s real environmental problems.

“UKIP has been calling for a rational, balanced approach to the climate debate since 2008, when extensive manipulation of scientific data first became clear. There must be an immediate halt to needless expenditure on the basis of a now-disproven hypothesis.

“Given our unprecedented national debt crisis, not a penny must be wasted, not a single job lost to satisfy vociferous but misguided campaigners, often led by ill-informed media celebrities, profiteering big businesses, insurance interests and banks. The correct policy approach to the non-problem of global warming is to have the courage to do nothing.”

If you know of any political party, anywhere, that has a climate policy more vigorously and healthily skeptical than UKIP, let me know.
 
I don't know when climate change deniers started picking up on this argument but it shows the kind of scientific ignorance that puts them on par with creationists.

Yes, ice floats on water and doesn't increase the level of the water as it melts. However, a large proportion of the polar ice is currently residing on land. Antarctica is a whole continent. This land-based ice will melt into the seas and oceans, thus increasing the sea level significantly.

Anyone who denies anthropogenic climate change based on the current evidence is clearly burying their head in the sand.

So please tell me, how did man cause the last ice age and how are we guilty for ending it? These cycles have happened before man, and during times wjen man had no industry to impact the climate.

I don't deny climate is changing though. This happens naturally.
 
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