Chances of UKIP winning General Election?

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UKIP are certainly a more credible party than Labour or Green, and their chances of winning are certainly not zero, but they are small given the UK's dis-proportional representation system.
 
I listen to anything that has passed a peer review process, published in respectible journals, follows the scientific process and has collaborating evidence and theory.

So basically, stuff like what I linked :P


Now explain to me with dependable sources how 98% of the thousands upon thousands of scientists studying every aspect of climate can be wrong?

Example 1: Cigarettes.
Example 2: Asbestos.
Example 3: Until about the mid-1990s the Medieval Warm Period was for climate researchers an undisputed fact, If you believe Mann's theory then you already believe that almost all of the thousands upon thousands of scientists studying every aspect of climate can be wrong.
 
So basically, stuff like what I linked :P




Example 1: Cigarettes.
Example 2: Asbestos.
Example 3: Until about the mid-1990s the Medieval Warm Period was for climate researchers an undisputed fact, If you believe Mann's theory then you already believe that almost all of the thousands upon thousands of scientists studying every aspect of climate can be wrong.

People who worry about these things need something to jump onto and cling to.

One week save the wales, next week kill all the wales to save the worlds diminishing plankton stocks.
 
UKIP are certainly a more credible party than Labour or Green, and their chances of winning are certainly not zero, but they are small given the UK's dis-proportional representation system.

In what way? Seriously, where does this rubbish come from? They are credible because?...

Are they credible because they haven't had the opportunity to screw up the country yet? Or is it because they have a media savvy buffoon leading the
party? Could it be the track record in Europe, where the party leader and deputy cost the taxpayer £1.2M combined to stand as MEPs (wages, expenses etc.), while only turning up to actually do that job occasionally because they are too busy playing the PR game over here?

What aspect of UKIP gives UKIP credibility? Frankly, I can't help but think it's all media hype.
 
yes, in the long run things like wind power are much cheaper than nuclear energy. Wind turbines are much simpler and cheaper to build than a nuclear reactor, and since you build hundreds and thousands them it gets even cheaper due to duplication and bulk supplying. They are cheaper to maintain, cheaper tp cleanup, don't leave expensive toxic waste, don't require expensive mining and processing of radio active materials form across the other wide of the world, require far less staff, less engineers, no transportation of resources, little in the ay of safety systems, no backup generators, much less protection against earthquakes/tsunamis/hurricanes/terrorists, and at the end of their life they are cheap and easy to clean up.

It was my understanding, and i could be wrong, that to get the most out of wind turbines, huge farms out at sea are built to take advantage of stronger winds. Forgetting the complete eyesore for the moment, these have to be heavily maintained and replaced failry often, due to the nature of the sea and salt water?
 
Now explain to me with dependable sources how 98% of the thousands upon thousands of scientists studying every aspect of climate can be wrong?

I am still struggling to believe that 98% of scientists believe global warming / climate change is man made.

But you are pretty damn sure so I might have to take your word for it!

I always liked an underdog anyways.
 
So you are " fairly sure there's good solid proof that there's a risk."

Would you not want to be completely sure considering:

“The World Bank has reported that three-quarters of the doubling of world food prices that occurred two years ago is directly attributable to the global dash for biofuels."

“Herr Ziegler, the UN’s Right-to-Food Rapporteur, has said that while millions are starving the diversion of farmland from food to biofuels is “a crime against humanity”.

http://www.juandemariana.org/pdf/090327-employment-public-aid-renewable.pdf

Well, on balance, from what I've read and watched and from how the facts about the amount of CO2 we've pushed into the atmosphere ON TOP OF natural factors like melting ice, volcanos etc etc then ON BALANCE I think it's likely we're having an effect and I'd like to do my bit.

Now you raise an interesting point about biomass farms and chopping down forests and taking useful agricultural land to plant crops for this sort of thing and you're absolutely right, I'd call this unintended consequences just like any well meaning scheme that ends up being corrupted (common agricultural policy/fisheries policies are 2 good examples of well meaning schemes with pretty horrible outcomes) but the alternative of just assuming everything is fine and doing nothing is also unacceptable.

Just because we've gotten it a bit wrong now doesn't mean we should pull the ladder up on the future.

And yes, closed minded racist UKIP people and voters. I'm not closed minded at all, I'm skeptical about pretty much everything but I do believe we're probably changing the climate, I believe we're all eating way too much meat, I believe its insane we feed cattle enough grain to feed half the world, I believe fossil fuels will run out just later that everyone says (cartel is the clue, they even call themselves that), I believe nuclear could have been a stop gap but it takes too long to build, I like wind turbines, I think they look cool and I think after having a £250 a month electricity bill I'd very much like a big push for us to be self sufficient with renewable energy which absolutely is possible and if it isn't, well we need to find a way of killing lots of people ASAP.

People who worry about these things need something to jump onto and cling to.

One week save the wales, next week kill all the wales to save the worlds diminishing plankton stocks.

You're on both sides of that argument.. people need to cling on to something, you seem to need to cling on to your nothing. I'd rather hang on to hope to be honest that cling on to things how they've always been.
 
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After a quick run around the internet re wind power, today, it's not currently economically viable. Problems include cost to build the infrastructure. Seeing as most people do not want these in eye shot they have to be built in remote areas or out at sea, requiring huge investment, often not paying off themselves before they need to be replaced.

The other problem is lifespan, which relates to the above. They need to last around 25/30 years before being replaced. Biggest problem is micro pitting.

Another factor, but goes for all forms of renewable energy, and that's storing electricity. Solar/wind/tidal do not generate electricity on demand, and sometimes generate electricity surplus to requirements, which is then wasted. It seems progress in this area is also slow.

Re solar energy. I think most people have given up on that. China's biggest solar panel company went bankrupt. Probably a sign of its efficiency.

I am all for discussion though :)
 
After a quick run around the internet re wind power, today, it's not currently economically viable. Problems include cost to build the infrastructure. Seeing as most people do not want these in eye shot they have to be built in remote areas or out at sea, requiring huge investment, often not paying off themselves before they need to be replaced.

The other problem is lifespan, which relates to the above. They need to last around 25/30 years before being replaced. Biggest problem is micro pitting.

Another factor, but goes for all forms of renewable energy, and that's storing electricity. Solar/wind/tidal do not generate electricity on demand, and sometimes generate electricity surplus to requirements, which is then wasted. It seems progress in this area is also slow.

Re solar energy. I think most people have given up on that. China's biggest solar panel company went bankrupt. Probably a sign of its efficiency.

I am all for discussion though :)

You've just given me most of the pointers for my exam on Friday, thanks! ;)
 
After a quick run around the internet re wind power, today, it's not currently economically viable. Problems include cost to build the infrastructure. Seeing as most people do not want these in eye shot they have to be built in remote areas or out at sea, requiring huge investment, often not paying off themselves before they need to be replaced.

The other problem is lifespan, which relates to the above. They need to last around 25/30 years before being replaced. Biggest problem is micro pitting.

Another factor, but goes for all forms of renewable energy, and that's storing electricity. Solar/wind/tidal do not generate electricity on demand, and sometimes generate electricity surplus to requirements, which is then wasted. It seems progress in this area is also slow.

Re solar energy. I think most people have given up on that. China's biggest solar panel company went bankrupt. Probably a sign of its efficiency.

I am all for discussion though :)

Whilst I don't know the ins and outs, I think if we're to take something like this seriously people need to accept they might have to see whats making their power. This sort of nimbyism is really frustrating.

I'd love to be able to se a field or a spot of sea full of massive wind turbines.. it's impressive, like a skyscraper!
 
Whilst I don't know the ins and outs, I think if we're to take something like this seriously people need to accept they might have to see whats making their power. This sort of nimbyism is really frustrating.

I'd love to be able to se a field or a spot of sea full of massive wind turbines.. it's impressive, like a skyscraper!

Oh yes, don't me wrong, I would love to see something like that. Much like I would love to see a volcano someday. I just wouldn't want to be living next to one.

Again, I don't know the full extent, but apparently the noise they generate can be quite extreme.
 
Oh yes, don't me wrong, I would love to see something like that. Much like I would love to see a volcano someday. I just wouldn't want to be living next to one.

Again, I don't know the full extent, but apparently the noise they generate can be quite extreme.

Yeah but remember if we all say that nothing changes.

Just like the people saying we shouldn't do anything if China don't, or India etc etc.

Yes world, we've done our industrialising but we don't want you to, we've had our moment in the sun doing whatever we liked but don't want you to.

And in for the bargain we'll moralise about human rights, workers rights, environmental policy etc etc whilst buying all your cheap stuff and failing to set a decent example of how you can prosper AND grow AND industrialise. Thankfully it seems China are waking up to this on their own because of... yep, climate change. They're starting to see the destructive effects they're having which is changing public opinion and making the government act.

I don't doubt we'll all do that too, if things do get bad I imagine we'll have governments forcing everyone to paint their roof white, banning cars etc etc and the self same people saying it's all a lie will be the same people refusing to share the solar panels or whatever on some shaky premise they deserve them more than the next guy... ban sales of wind turbines to india etc etc. Its basically a very self centred view of the world.

It seems like some people would be happier having the opportunity to say I told you so, or be able to blame someone than actually do something about something that might actually be a problem for us all.

Either way, this must be very encouraging for UKIP, seems even on this forum they have enough home grown "screw you buddy, life is for me and me alone" people that they might have a shot at the GE.

I mean if they promised to make Jeremy Clarkson chancellor, ban immigration, give everyone a weekly beer token and allow them to throw eggs at benefits claimants I think they'd sweep the board.

g1d5d0212.jpg


Even the whole immigration thing... you didn't choose to be born here so what more right have you got to be here than anyone else? Borders are only something dreamed up by humanity in probably the last couple of thousand years. I can't think of a single reason I'm more worthy of being here than an Eastern European other than I like it and by a massive fluke I happened to be born here.
 
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Just like the people saying we shouldn't do anything if China don't, or India etc etc.

India actually are, they are currently commencing the biggest surge into nuclear power for half a century, which is a good thing in the long run because in 20-30 years when all our turbines need replacing we can simply licence the tech for Thorium reactors and get nice cheap, clean, safe, efficient power without doing any of the work :)
 
You touched on a lot there.

Regarding if everyone thinks like that then nothing gets done. True. But honestly, would you want to live next to a massive wind farm, creating constant noise, constantly having maintenance, very little in the way of wildlife? etc.

Re the blame culture, that is part of the miserable world we live in. It resonates deeper than this subject. Accidents do not happen anymore, someone is always to blame!

Can you blame people for looking after number one? Nowadays it is the only person you can really rely on. No such things as communities, not anything near what this country was like during WWII. Back then people rallied and helped out one another. People may put that down to immigration?

We as a nation do have an immigration and benefit problem. If you deny that you need to take your rose tinted specs off. That's why UKIP is so appealing at the moment, because they are making the right noises. I am not a fan of theirs at all, but i can see why they are getting votes. Come the next GE they will be nowhere so it’s irrelevant. We have 3rd 4th 5th generation benefit claimers that have known nothing else. Single teenage mums by the thousands that can't wait to have their own flat and all they need is to pop out a baby.

It's a home grown problem as well. We have inherently lazy Brits who blame migrants with better work ethics for taking their jobs.

Regarding the whole borders thing. Depends where you are coming from. I was born in the UK. I work and pay taxes to help run the UK and pay for services I use. Whilst I don't have a problem with people migrating to this country, my problem lies in people coming over here and taking advantage of our generosity, not contributing, nor having anything to offer. It's like me going into my next door neighbours and watching his TV, eating his food, using his water. Likewise I wouldn't expect to go to Dubai or NZ or America and expect a house, and money to live off.

The world is ugly. Life is short. Get on with it.
 
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The West have had their industrial revolution now its the turn of the East. If the world is to do anything seriously about climate change newer modern energy technology needs to be made available to new developing powers such as China and India. Much more need to be done in terms of subsidies and joint ventures.
 
India actually are, they are currently commencing the biggest surge into nuclear power for half a century, which is a good thing in the long run because in 20-30 years when all our turbines need replacing we can simply licence the tech for Thorium reactors and get nice cheap, clean, safe, efficient power without doing any of the work :)

Haha - I doubt £billions is spent installing piled foundations to the bottom of the sea, laying down 100s of km of access tracks and cables and something which has a 20 life span. I think they intend to reuse this infrastructure for replacement turbines :)

Wind power is here to stay.
 
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