The labour Leader thread...

Mr Jack · 17 Sep 2015 at 17:19

PermaBanned said:
... the lib dems were treated with contempt by the elecorate despite every remotely good thing that came from the 2010-2015 government being because of them.

Every bad thing was because of them too. They didn't need to impose a nakedly Tory government on a country that hadn't voted for it.

Danthus · 17 Sep 2015 at 17:48

Corbyn's new Spin doctor.

ReltonBFD · 17 Sep 2015 at 18:02

He's right thou, just scrape em off and get on with it.

Terminal_Boy · 17 Sep 2015 at 18:02

True colours = shown

RoboCod · 17 Sep 2015 at 18:06

MrMoonX said:
we have a moral responsibility to help true refugees

Crack on then.

Dolph · 17 Sep 2015 at 18:42

Mr Jack said:
Every bad thing was because of them too. They didn't need to impose a nakedly Tory government on a country that hadn't voted for it.

What should have happened in 2010 instead?

Many people in country liked it, the lib dem mistake was in not owning in but instead letting people in their held seats where the opposition was the conservatives think they could side with labour next time...

Blackjack Davy · 17 Sep 2015 at 18:53

Aldav said:
They've known each other all their lives, and are friends. They were at school together. You're right, they clearly are comfortable with each other, but as far as I'm aware, there's never been any hint of a relationship more intimate than just very good friends. If there has been, I missed it.

I always assumed Portillo is gay, unless I've missed something?

McPhee · 17 Sep 2015 at 21:05

Mr Jack said:
It can hardly be a worse year, can it?

Their success depends on convincing Labour voters to vote tactically against the Tories, and that will need a solid body of anti-Tory voters. Without incumbency to help them and now classified as a minor party for coverage purposes they will struggle to win on any other basis. They may well lose some of the seats they took this time round.

They're now well into minor party territory with single figure support and little prospect of recovery. The only reason they're relevant at all is the extent to which they stacked the Lords last parliament.

If they're finished then someone needs to get round to telling the members. The party is going through record membership growth, the number of first time attendees for the conference is expected to be up 216% on last year, and they might just pass their record attendance.

The magnitude of success or failure for the party largely hinges on what happens to Jeremy Corbyn. If he's still in place in 2020 then I can't see how the Lib Dems aren't in with a shot. Get the manifesto right, put forward a vision that appeals to the centre-left, push the message hard. There are a lot of people out there who are going to struggle to work out where to cast their vote at the next election. They aren't a fan of the Tories, but aren't sure of Mr Corbyn's Labour Party. Nobody else will bridge the gap.

Aldav · 17 Sep 2015 at 22:12

Blackjack Davy said:
I always assumed Portillo is gay, unless I've missed something?

He had, apparently, and self-admittedly, some experiences in that direction in his youth, but has been married, and happily as far as I know, for some 30+ years. To a woman.

He does seem to have been one of those politicians with the attitude that his private life is just that - private.

Rroff · 17 Sep 2015 at 22:35

fs123 said:
Why on earth would any labour MP defect to a party that's almost finished? If the defectors are career politicians they would want to move to a party that at least has a chance of gaining seats rather than losing like the Lib Dems.

Its not so much about labour MPs actually defecting but undermining labour by engineering the situation so that individuals (not closely aligned to Corbyn) wonder if they are about to get left behind. Especially if 1-2 influential ones do or can be made to appear like they are seriously consider it it can have quite an effect to break up confidence within a party even potentially trigger an avalanche of its own making.

As an aside the lib-dems are in the throes of reinventing themselves but far from a finished party - potentially (if a bit of a gamble) a good spot for a career politician looking to make their mark.

Mr Jack · 17 Sep 2015 at 23:14

Dolph said:
What should have happened in 2010 instead?

The Lib Dems need to be much more willing to walk away and fight for the manifesto they stood on rather than on the points that their key negotiators cared about. They needed to either have a much more Lib Dem coalition or some kind of less tight arrangement where they clearly negotiated on every vote. They needed to show the public they were getting something good back from every compromise. They failed on all counts.

Many people in country liked it, the lib dem mistake was in not owning in but instead letting people in their held seats where the opposition was the conservatives think they could side with labour next time...

Owning it would have been worthless to the Lib Dems. The people who were happy with the last government were mostly Tory voters; they needed the support of their voters and potential swing voters. As it stood, they alienated a full two thirds of their voters and did nothing to convince swing voters that they were worth voting for or, indeed, could be trusted on anything.

2010 was a difficult situation for them but Clegg was very much the worst possible leader for the occasion. He was much too far from the party's heart and much too willing to throw the manifesto under the bus for his sniff at power. He was also deeply tactically inept.

Mr Jack · 17 Sep 2015 at 23:21

satchef1 said:
If they're finished then someone needs to get round to telling the members. The party is going through record membership growth, the number of first time attendees for the conference is expected to be up 216% on last year, and they might just pass their record attendance.

Membership is almost entirely independent of actual success. And I didn't say they're finished but thoughts of returning to being a meaningful third party of British in 2020 are a fantasy.

PermaBanned · 18 Sep 2015 at 00:00

McDonell performed very well on QT i thought. Sceptical about his appointment but i think people will come round to him.

McPhee · 18 Sep 2015 at 01:05

Mr Jack said:
Membership is almost entirely independent of actual success. And I didn't say they're finished but thoughts of returning to being a meaningful third party of British in 2020 are a fantasy.

I don't believe it is a fantasy. The ingredients are there. The task ahead is monumental, but in terms of situation, it doesn't get much more favourable. Most important of all, the party believes it can return to glory. The mood among members, candidates and the (few remaining) MPs is great. A stark contrast to the chaos stalking Labour.

A large section of the electorate doesn't find the Tories appealing. A large portion of that section doesn't find Jeremy Corbyn appealing. The Lib Dems have a significant slice of the pie to aim for, and it's a demographic that none of the other small parties can hit in large numbers. That's an awesome opportunity, should it still be available at the general election. The Lib Dems are the best-placed party to appeal to disaffected Labour voters.

I did read a piece earlier today where Jack Straw echo'd pretty much the same points. However, it wouldn't surprise me if he's one of the senior Labour figures that has been in contact with Tim Farron - there are enough clues there to suggest he is. He's clearly disaffected with Labour, has been speaking out against the party, has been talking fondly about the Lib Dems and he fits the criteria of being senior and having been a member of the Labour Party for a long time.

Skunkworks · 18 Sep 2015 at 01:13

Can we have a poll to gauge opinion?

Replaced before GE
Stays leader but loses the GE
Stays leader and wins the GE

Tefal · 18 Sep 2015 at 05:13

PermaBanned said:
I don't think the 2015 campaign had anything to do with their downfall. They never really recovered from the tuition fees debacle, so while the other parties were getting hounded for refusing to even talk about the possibility of coalitions, the lib dems were treated with contempt by the elecorate despite every remotely good thing that came from the 2010-2015 government being because of them.

I think you'll find that few people actually gave a **** about tuition fees and even fewer actual voters cared.

Sankari · 18 Sep 2015 at 06:07

I watched Corbyn's first appearance at Question Time. Corbyn comes across as someone who wishes Parliament was more like the way it used to be when he was a kid, and thinks he can recreate that magic today.

He was refreshing in a courteous, old school way. He has the common touch, and his style is down to earth. But he didn't articulate a coherent, realistic alternative vision for the UK. I don't believe he's PM material and I don't think he can win an election.

Cameron—for all his faults—is still the better politician.

Uther · 18 Sep 2015 at 06:37

Tefal said:
I think you'll find that few people actually gave a **** about tuition fees and even fewer actual voters cared.

I disagree. It cast the seeds of doubt that the LibDems weren't to be trusted IMO. Rightly or wrongly.

McPhee · 18 Sep 2015 at 07:57

Skunkworks said:
Can we have a poll to gauge opinion?

Replaced before GE
Stays leader but loses the GE
Stays leader and wins the GE

I reckon he's almost certain to make it to the GE. Who is going to take the reins off him? Cooper, Burnham and Kendall lost to him, and nobody else particularly wants the leadership right now. Besides, if the PLP don't let this experiment run its course, if the membership feel there has been a degree of unfair play, then there's a danger that he'll just be replaced by someone similar anyway.

He'd have to do something monumentally stupid for the party to move against him this side of the GE.

Sankari · 18 Sep 2015 at 08:06

Labour needs to give him at least one crack at a GE, and I reckon they'll do it. No point changing leaders twice in the same election cycle; that never ends well.