Poll: The Official OcUK EU Referendum Exit poll (and results discussion thread)

[Glaucus]

It's a bargaining chip for us and why the EU are desperate to sort this mess out quickly.

you keep saying similar, but what scenario can you see that helps us and stops other countries leaving eu.

 

[toshj]

I am quiet taken back and blushing a little as you took the time to look back at my posts and feel I have an important role in this discussion.

Thank you it is quiet flattering.

He was posting pure BS, banging on about the war.
This is here and now not 60 bloody years ago, he did not fight for the EU or the common market.

To be honest I am ashamed as country we cannot pull our socks up and deal with it.
The lily livered university indoctrination seems to have got to some folk.

I like the tears.

By the way I don't want be a **** and it begins with T, can we all just move on now to a brighter democratic future and just get along.

It was one of those incredulously stupid posts that sticks in the head, and following your logic across the different threads I had a feeling I'd bump in to you contradicting yourself. You didn't actually address the contradiction though, instead spouted a load of other stuff instead. Nice

 

[Jokester]

you keep saying similar, but what scenario can you see that helps us and stops other countries leaving eu.

A quick resolution to the free market question. Dragging that out damages the weaker EU economies which will likely prove catastrophic, both from just an economic point of view, but also from stoking further anti-EU fealing.

 

[StriderX]

IBEX and Athens stock are dangerously low for the ECB at this point.

 

[delta0]

As has been said they are in a difficult situation.
-Give us good deals and raise questions regarding why others can't have similar deals despite being in the EU, causing further problems in the EU (esp since many see us as already having special treatment).
-Punish us and as a result some of the EU nations, giving those eurosceptic groups further ammunition and impacting the people in those countries (fueling the very thing they would be trying to stamp out).

Either way they have said their proposed goals in the face of the result is further integration and expansion (which seems odd given they not so long ago admitted they maybe had moved too far too fast and had underestimated the people's concerns).

Those three things put them into the lose situation. I think there will be a compromise between the first two. I really hope they learn from this before even considering point three.

 

[danielanthony]

You could argue that the EU would be keen to get us out sooner to try and stem the flow.

I don't think its like ripping off a plaster. There will be big contracts which span many years to untangle if trade barriers suddenly go up. They can't just close down BMW Oxford and Swindon (for example) in a couple of weeks and it would be prohibitively expensive to do so due to written off investment and redundancy costs. There will be many further examples like this to consider.

 

[Jokester]

IBEX and Athens stock are dangerously low for the ECB at this point.

Monday will be anxious times for them, if the bank shares keep plummeting in Greece once they're allowed to be traded again it could be curtains for them.

 

[Buckster]

could an actual leave be blocked by the House of Lords ?

 

[Glaucus]

A quick resolution to the free market question. Dragging that out damages the weaker EU economies which will likely prove catastrophic, both from just an economic point of view, but also from stoking further anti-EU fealing.

but what quick resolution, and in that resolution what do they offer us and how does that affect other countries.
for example if they go fine have free market but you have to pay the same but no free movement, then right wing parties across Europe will want the same.

I agree dragging it out will prove catastrophic, but at the moment I see like a 2% miracle chance that this wont be a catastrophic for Europe as a whole.

Norway are very unhappy with their deal, France, Italy, denamark all want their own referendum and deal is going to be nigh on impossible.

 

[Orcish-Horde]

to me - if we loose Scotland and NI - it seems daft to try and be GB or "UK"- I'd prefer to let Wales go on their way and be purely "England"

don't get me wrong I'd prefer the whole of UK to be United - but "England and Wales" - doesn't ring right for me

N Ireland will not be leaving the UK for a very long time to come. The EU vote was a simple vote of in or out of the EU. It will not change a thing in N Ireland if a boarder poll would be called. The Unionist vote was in line with precentages of the EU vote in England give or take a precent. The nationalist vote pulled the EU remain vote out of line.

With Scotland the EU could be gone by the time they have their next independant vote, if the even have one and if they do I think the SNP will be disappointed with the out come.

 

[Buckster]

but what quick resolution, and in that resolution what do they offer us and how does that affect other countries.
for example if they go fine have free market but you have to pay the same but no free movement, then right wing parties across Europe will want the same.

I agree dragging it out will prove catastrophic, but at the moment I see like a 2% miracle chance that this wont be a catastrophic for Europe as a whole.

if it is catastrophic for Europe as a whole are we not stuffed whether we are in or out anyway ?

one of the reasons I thought status quo was the way forward - ie to try and stop Europe getting to that catastrophic point

 

[Feronix]

As a Dutch person I just want to say - I am surprised how many of you take the 'Nexit referendum' and '712 other countries want to leave' stories seriously.

There has literally been one guy (that nobody likes, he got dragged to court for racism) from one party that said he'd want a referendum if his party ever got into a position of power, of which I can confidently say that it will not happen.

 

[toshj]

I'm pretty sure that was debunked as untrue.

[Edit] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...eferendum-jobs-dublin-frankfurt-a7100911.html

Yes it has and it is actually incorrect.

Joe Lynam, the BBC journalist who broke the news, has indicated that the BBC are standing by the story! Which is a pretty rare move for the BBC to make, so I imagine it's got legs.

In any case, any banks wishing to clear EUR rates products will need to have access to the appropriate banking licenses to do so... which they won't have once we leave the EU. Therefore certain such desks and trading activities are likely going to have to move out of the UK at some point in the near future.

 

[Caged]

I laughed at the suggestion that the government of a single country was powerful enough to cause the 2008 recession when people were blaming it on Labour, but the Tories have really outdone them now.

 

[Jokester]

but what quick resolution, and in that resolution what do they offer us and how does that affect other countries.
for example if they go fine have free market but you have to pay the same but no free movement, then right wing parties across Europe will want the same.

I agree dragging it out will prove catastrophic, but at the moment I see like a 2% miracle chance that this wont be a catastrophic for Europe as a whole.

And maybe that is the cost for avoiding complete failure of the EU? At least from that position they can live to reform for another day. If the whole thing collapses in a smouldering heap of retribution and back stabbing then that's it, game over.

 

[Glaucus]

if it is catastrophic for Europe as a whole are we not stuffed whether we are in or out anyway ?

no, because if we were in it wouldn't be and it would have strengthened the eu.

 

[CREATIVE!11]

What an utterly sad day.

Grim times are ahead. That is for sure. Farage has already withdrawn some of his statements he used in his brexit campaign.

Good start.

 

[Nitefly]

So much resentment, it is sickening.

So much resentment over a potentially really terrible decision, yes

Only when the pound gets back to stable 'pre-referendum talk' rates and we are able to consider how much turbulence we had along the way to getting to that point, can anyone really claim it was the right decision to make.

I'm calling that we will tread water and it will be an enormous waste of time, money and our global position. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[PraxxtorCruel]

As a Dutch person I just want to say - I am surprised how many of you take the 'Nexit referendum' and '712 other countries want to leave' stories seriously.

There has literally been one guy (that nobody likes, he got dragged to court for racism) from one party that said he'd want a referendum if his party ever got into a position of power, of which I can confidently say that it will not happen.

Heh. You never know.

Didn't most think Remain would win with a several point lead? Look how that turned out.

 

[ps3ud0]

From what Ive read my expectations are:

Scotland will negotiate with the EU as part of article 50 to remain within the EU if they carry out and accept an independency referendum before the end of the UKs two year exit strategy.

Im not too sure what will happen with NI and RoI but I expect a return to instability in the region.

A more right wing Conservative party has to be on the cards (well it has to be led by at least a Brexit leader and cabinet) and UKIP gaining strength from lapsed Labour supporters who feel Labour doesnt represent them.

Movement of multinationals that use the UK as their EU hub particularly in manufacturing and financial services which in my mind is a massive blow to our exports.

Higher cost of living coupled with another sweep of austerity

EU giving us a bum deal when we leave due to worry that any concession will lead to further EU member states asking for article 50

EDIT: Forgot to mention an early GE, probably next year - I also wondering when article 50 might be activated and if the interim government or an elected one will kick that off.

ps3ud0