Brexit thread - what happens next
- Thread starter Gilly
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Soldato
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Spain will use this to leverage a deal for Gibraltar
your expats can stay, but we get Gibraltar, don't like it, well they are coming home then..........
considering 95% of Gibraltar voted to stay in the EU I can see them being happy with that deal.
Spain can't afford to have many people with money leave the country. Their economy although improving is still poor.
There's something like 700,000 expats in Spain. The country has an unemployment rate of over 20%. Expats bring in money. They aren't going to get rid of them.
I wasn't aware that the government is selling the publicly owned stakes right now?
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Spain will use this to leverage a deal for Gibraltar
your expats can stay, but we get Gibraltar, don't like it, well they are coming home then..........
considering 95% of Gibraltar voted to stay in the EU I can see them being happy with that deal.
Almost nobody in Gibraltar would be happy with that. They voted almost unanimously against shared rule.
Actually that does include rebate. Also the comparison with Norway also includes science as they actively contribute to this.
Don't you mean billion?
Invoking Art 50 and depriving the EU of funding for 2 years will go down like a lead balloon.
Expect the other 27 countries to be happy with that and offer you whatever you want.
It's a serious step and the public should be informed before taking that step.
Although they were informed and decided sovereignty mattered more.
Not forgetting a curb on immigrants wanting to work and 350M to NHS (in white on side of double decker battle bus)
I'm sure those on the rock can't wait.
Invoking Art 50 and depriving the EU of funding for 2 years will go down like a lead balloon.
Expect the other 27 countries to be happy with that and offer you whatever you want.
It's a serious step and the public should be informed before taking that step.
Although they were informed and decided sovereignty mattered more.
Not forgetting a curb on immigrants wanting to work and 350M to NHS (in white on side of double decker battle bus)
Yes 7 hour journey to get food and supplies from spain yee haaa....
I'm sure those on the rock can't wait.
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..or the non-existent emergency Osborne budget, Cameron not invoking Article 50 on June 28th and the non-break-out of World war 3 that Remain voters were taken in by.
When Ireland voted against the Treaty of Lisbon, the EU's attitude was "We need to push it through anyway as it's not fair the people of the 27 other nations who voted for/[se] governments approved it can't have it because one country doesn't", You really think if the other 27 countries approved Turkey's accession, it wouldn't be pushed through anyway if we were the lone voice saying 'no'?
Sure it is nice to have, though like we both know the Turkey thing isn't very likely to happen any time soon. I don't think it is too essential, then again I'm not sure that we'll necessarily go for an EEA solution(unless we have a second referendum) as we're going to be pushing for immigration control so EEA- is more likely or a Swiss style system of bilateral deals or even a Canadian type deal. with any of those then Turkish accession and possible immigration isn't much of a concern.
Frankly if anything like that did present a really bad scenario then other countries would likely veto it too, though in a few decades things could change and maybe Turkish immigration won't be seen as a bad thing anyway(in order to gain membership rather a lot would have to change there!). Some of the more useful and likely uses of the veto by the UK with regards to things like treaty/constitutional changes etc.. are not really so much of a concern any more once we've left.
They were about to. They aren't now.
Soldato
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We were having a discussion about it all last night in work, with a 50/50 split of remain and leave roughly the overall fact was worry over what will happen in the medium term with respects the economy.
That was until one lad piped up with 'yeah, but I voted out, because at least now the NHS is getting an extra £350m per week'
Cue a collective 20 face palms, again a 50/50 split lol.
That was until one lad piped up with 'yeah, but I voted out, because at least now the NHS is getting an extra £350m per week'
Cue a collective 20 face palms, again a 50/50 split lol.
Well under the Swiss style arrangement we don't necessarily have to take everything as it is subject to a series of bilateral arrangements. The bigger picture for me though is to create stronger links with the rest of the world and become less dependent on trade with the EU.
dunno, brexiteers are a diverse range of people - I'd suspect that if talks were deadlocked over immigration then we'll see a second referendum for either full brexit or some alternative (like an EEA or Swiss option) possibly without the immigration controls or with whatever the EU can offer there... I'd suspect a decent portion of the leave voters would vote for the latter along with most, if not all, the remain voters.
Then again I also wonder if the prospect of another referendum with one of the choices being full brexit/WTO would be useful in persuading the EC/Council to ensure that the alternative, the deal on the table from them is good enough that it will win such a vote.
Then again I also wonder if the prospect of another referendum with one of the choices being full brexit/WTO would be useful in persuading the EC/Council to ensure that the alternative, the deal on the table from them is good enough that it will win such a vote.
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Well the EU parlement/council/commission doesnt seem to have ever intervined to help in the past
Well it isn't so much about them being nobs per say but a quesiton of incentives and having that incentive there just isn't a good idea. I really doubt it will be there, the likely next PM has already committed to brexit and we've already had the referendum on that question, a possible second referendum is much more likely to simply be related to the sort of deal we take - a do we take this negotiated deal vs do we go for full brexit being the obvious two choices
That gives added incentive to negotiators from both sides* to make it a good one and gets around the possibility that not much(other than token measures) gets agreed re: immigration... as a second poll could easily show overwhelming support for the deal on the table vs full brexit/WTO and the govt doesn't have to take the blame for ignoring immigration if that becomes an issue that won't budge.
(*including any supposed Sir Humphrey types that elements of the right wing press are worried about on our side)
(anyway just rambling thoughts/guesses - 2nd referendum could quite easily never happen)
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Soldato
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Or 5 minutes, as when i crossed from Gib to Spain it took that amount of time to check my passport. the border crossing is essentially a runways width, as that is it.
Was that in a car?
I've only ever heard the nightmare stories from cars being queued back for hours to get through.
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It wasn't binding, a vote on an Opposition day debate. Not on legislation so the Government could just ignore it. Though you would hope the Tories wouldn't ignore the will of the HoC.
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Its amazing how certain media has gone quiet on the subject of brexit.
The Sun and Daily Mail have said little to nothing at all about the falling pound, m&g and Aviva, the economy heading towards recession, From the comments all I read is "ftse 100 is back up we are fine". Its obvious those papers are keeping their readership ignorant. In fact the past few days there has been immigrant stories like "the school where your not allowed to be British thanks to immigrants" sandwiched between two everything is rainbows and unicorn brexit stories.
The independent and and telegraph is a different story. I think that with the independent its centre slightly to the left whilst telegraph seems to be centre. Both have been covering a fair bit about the state of economy, what's to come next, possible plans and strategies, market rates, etc. You get more of a full picture with them.
The Sun and Daily Mail have said little to nothing at all about the falling pound, m&g and Aviva, the economy heading towards recession, From the comments all I read is "ftse 100 is back up we are fine". Its obvious those papers are keeping their readership ignorant. In fact the past few days there has been immigrant stories like "the school where your not allowed to be British thanks to immigrants" sandwiched between two everything is rainbows and unicorn brexit stories.
The independent and and telegraph is a different story. I think that with the independent its centre slightly to the left whilst telegraph seems to be centre. Both have been covering a fair bit about the state of economy, what's to come next, possible plans and strategies, market rates, etc. You get more of a full picture with them.
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