Brexit thread - what happens next

[Judgeneo]

FTSE 250 closed today above its 12 month trading average.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^FTMC

 

[datalol-jack]

Its a simple point that trade is more important with the world at large rather then favouring just the EU.
EU isnt high growth, large sections of the world are growing exponentially now and will continue to grow massively and in ways they really do require UK expertise and quality assurance etc
Capturing those markets and trading compartitive advantage is vital, any path which allows us to do that best is the one to take. I dont think any studies or hypotheticals are required to justify that. If people think EU is how we get to be part of world growth then fair enough

We like to type stuff off the cuff, don't we? Okay.

• Adam Smith, really? But it does look like you've just scanned even him. I love classical quotes, but they don't a strategy or economy make.
• What year is this dear sir?
• What is our balance of trade, what does the WORLD buy from us, and can we sell more? How price elastic is our offer?
• How can our services penetrate where you want to go? Are the legal systems there stable?
• Which jurisdiction will resolve disputes?
• Can this magical something-widget compensate for the trade lost via a gimped relationship with the EU? Can the developing world escape the middle-income trap?
• What's the point of high growth if you've got no access and cannot compete on price, and other economies can strike better deals on both price and quality?
• What's the point of high growth off a low base you have to wait decades to get anywhere?
• If people ask for movement of labour and labour laws to be relaxed, do you accept for more access or take the pain of a worse deal or no deal, and deny that clause; how long can you hold out?
• What industries are you willing to sacrifice and at what cost?
• Do other economies exist which encapsulate all of your competitive edges; what are their defensive interests, and why should they sacrifice them to make you money?
• Can you lump together effectively more agreements than the EU, the US, China et all to build up this magical trading empire?
• Where will the staff come from to oversee this World-first strategy?
• When will we get the time to do it all, will others wait for us to get our ducks in a row?
• Before or after the next round of WTO talks?
• What's plan B if one or more arrangements collapse, and we end up funding rubbish deals with more borrowing?
• Can we afford to take rubbish deals and call it a victory? How quickly can we advance them towards greater integration, more access and fewer barriers?
• Can a post-industrial economy develop further through tariff free trade alone?
• Recessions, depressions and volatility is no object, then, growth always returns, and everyone's immune from regression in trade and political outlook, behaving as a sombre rational agent with nowt but his rational self-interest in mind? Some wonderful world! Does it have unicorns too?

I defer to the Scottish on these things, just not the current leader. Its all been asked and answered before theory and practise afaik
http://www.adamsmith.org/the-wealth-of-nations/

Clearly it hasn't, otherwise we wouldn't be having so many problems, our predictive power would be through the roof and our magnificent plan would be already in PDF format ready for the civil service to crack on with. I defer to the people who know our current situation in terms of trade, strengths, constraints and prospective objectives:

EU costs and benefits:
http://www.parliament.uk/business/c...iament-2015/eu-membership-15-16/publications/

Our future outside the EU:
http://www.parliament.uk/business/c...omic-relationship-with-eu-16-17/publications/

You can look each of them up for further studies, best practices and hypotheticals. Mayhap you'll even leave the 18th century one day.

 

[silversurfer]

FTSE 250 closed today above its 12 month trading average.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^FTMC

The index has to be taken as a ratio to Sterling strength.

So this graph shows a greater drop in currency worth then the index rose, effectively we are lower post brexit

Thats presuming Dollar has a fixed worth, which of course it doesnt. Could also use gold as a fix to compare

our predictive power would be through the roof

I dont think we always respect history as much as we should. Also we have to relearn past mistakes, I agree we should be far ahead of where we are if we did that much

 

[Cern]

I dont think we always respect history as much as we should. Also we have to relearn past mistakes, I agree we should be far ahead of where we are if we did that much

"We must learn from these mistakes"

"Lessons will be learned"

How often do you hear disgraced politicians, heads of industry, public servants and England football managers say these words?

And yet nothing is ever learned, we're condemned to repeat the same mistakes over and over.

 

[datalol-jack]

The index has to be taken as a ratio to Sterling strength.

So this graph shows a greater drop in currency worth then the index rose, effectively we are lower post brexit

Thats presuming Dollar has a fixed worth, which of course it doesnt. Could also use gold as a fix to compare



I dont think we always respect history as much as we should. Also we have to relearn past mistakes, I agree we should be far ahead of where we are if we did that much

Good shout on taking account of sterling's current value. A few posters on here blissfully ignore it. The less said of mass circulation papers, the better.

 

[Destination]

Good shout on taking account of sterling's current value. A few posters on here blissfully ignore it. The less said of mass circulation papers, the better.

Exactly, british companies lost stacks of value, their price to buy falls, the companies then suffer a second blow by sterling being battered.
The chinese then swoop and buy up stbaks of shares as their asian markets suddenly see the uk as a good investment as they are costing twenty or more percent less.
They buy things up in mass amounts, the ftse250 gets back to level under a depressed sterling.
British comoanies become more foreign owned, or in the case of arm, might pop off to complete ofriegn ownership.
Arm will have bolstered the 250 to some degree.

 

[kitch9]

Exactly, british companies lost stacks of value, their price to buy falls, the companies then suffer a second blow by sterling being battered.
The chinese then swoop and buy up stbaks of shares as their asian markets suddenly see the uk as a good investment as they are costing twenty or more percent less.
They buy things up in mass amounts, the ftse250 gets back to level under a depressed sterling.
British comoanies become more foreign owned, or in the case of arm, might pop off to complete ofriegn ownership.
Arm will have bolstered the 250 to some degree.

You mean the same Chinese who have been devaluing their currency for decades, have a massive trade surplus and wads of hoarded spare cash because of it?

Those ones?

 

[inogen]

You mean the same Chinese who have been devaluing their currency for decades, have a massive trade surplus and wads of hoarded spare cash because of it?

Those ones?

The same ones with a workforce of 800m earning $5000 a year.

 

[platypus]

If joining the euro was part of the referendum campaign, or at least a significant possibility, I think that even more people would vote to stay British.

You're suggesting that a vote to remain in the EU is a vote not to stay British, which is absurd.

 

[platypus]

Well you could argue that you shouldn't hold referendums on "far reaching and huge issues" period. Many countries don't and won't because they recognise it is dangerous to make huge constitutional changes based on a snapshot of public opinion which can be influenced by all manner of extraneous and temporary factors. And those that do usually require a 2/3 majority.

Of course it's too late now, our government was too detached from the reality of most peoples lives, too smug and complacent to contemplate losing the vote and didn't expect the anti-establishment backlash they got.

The sad part is that whilst the anti-establishment backlash was a healthy thing, the EU was scapegoated for a lot of ills which were not it's fault.

Leaving the EU will not fix the problems of inequality, neglect and deep disenfranchisement which permeate vast swathes of Britain. It might even make it worse when the honeymoon period wears off and the reality bites that Brexit comes at a high economic price and does not solve any of the day-to-day problems that people are really disillusioned about.

Yes, exactly. Well summed up.

 

[Judgeneo]

Its doesn't matter how cheap British stock might be because of low Sterling, people investing is a strong sign of confidence.

 

[Darujhistan]

It's way way too early for any of that. The Pound and markets have taken a hit of course, but none of the real reality of any of this has bitten yet. We're still in the EU for the time being, we don't yet know what deals we will or won't get, many investors and businesses are waiting to see how it all pans out. So there's an element of trying to carry on as normal at present, even if many are unsure what that means anymore.

Let's see how people feel further down the line when the sweeping changes actually happen and Brexit really starts to have an effect (for good or for bad).

If Brexit is a long journey ahead and the referendum was opening the front door, then we're barely down the garden path at the moment (albeit an eventful trip down down garden path).

I don't think it is, the day after the ref remainers were claiming huge swathes and regretters on the leave side. These polls don't bear that out. That's the point I was making.

 

[Dr Jack]

I have to say that the stockmarket figures are better than I expected. This is a good sign that the worst predictions for the short term Brexit damage may not come to pass.

We should get the GDP figures for the second quarter around the end of next week. They will make interesting reading but, of course, they'll be from the time before Brexit actually hit so it's the third quarter figures that really matter.

 

[estebanrey]

Good shout on taking account of sterling's current value. A few posters on here blissfully ignore it. The less said of mass circulation papers, the better.

But hang on, when the Ftse100 was being used people said it's a bad one to use because most of those companies are doing business outside of the UK and that the Ftse250 is better because it's mainly UK businesses doing trade here.

Well why then is the £/$ fluctuation so important to Ftse250 if they are trading here using pounds?

 

[estebanrey]

You're suggesting that a vote to remain in the EU is a vote not to stay British, which is absurd.

You're mixing up different issues, the post you quoted was talking about the Scottish Independence referendum not the EU one.

 

[Destination]

Funny, because according to your mob all the banks etc would be leaving post haste...

Be aware, things have not happened yet, we will know in 2 3 and 5 years who has left, who has stopped investment and who has downgraded.
Many construction firms are on pause in a purely wait and see mode.
Things are very much still unknown.

Hopefully May et all pulls a blinder.

 

[Darujhistan]

Be aware, things have not happened yet, we will know in 2 3 and 5 years who has left, who has stopped investment and who has downgraded.
Many construction firms are on pause in a purely wait and see mode.
Things are very much still unknown.

Hopefully May et all pulls a blinder.

I know they haven't, I still think that things so far have not been as bad as were claimed/predicted in the immediate aftermath of an out vote.

Hopefully they do pull it off, the last thing we need now is more uncertainty around another EU referendum. Once Brexit is out of the way, we can see what Scotland wants to do long-term, which cannot include neverendum.

 

[do_ron_ron]

US bank buys new London office for rumoured £300m.

Wondering how the remainers can somehow spin this story into bad news

You must have skipped over this bit in the story

Many US banks use London as their headquarters for selling services across the single market

Not if the Kippers get their way and totally remove from the EU then the benefit of London will disappear and Paris(or other) will become more attractive. Access to single market means freedom of movement.

 

[do_ron_ron]

Sterling going lower helps exporters sell more cheaply then others, thats why they want to buy ARM. The current owners of ARM can refuse to sell, many owners were already foreign as its listed globally much like BP is not actually purely British. None of that changed from leaving the EU afaik

Japan has been operating their business abroad for decades, nothing new. They saw a bargain and went for it, UK is an extremely good buy and its unlikely sterling will continually drop when useful business to the world exists here

Not good news!. Another British industry where they were leaders are gobbled up by foreign firm. Profits go back to Japan(apart from any they decide to invest in company)

 

[estebanrey]

Access to single market means freedom of movement.

No it doesn't. FREE access to the single market has historically included a requirement for freedom of movement but we have yet to see whether an economy the size of the UK's would be able to negotiate a better deal than the much smaller economies of Switzerland and Norway (whose deals I presume you are alluring to).