We will find out some details in September when Tesla announce their hgv.
Sale of petrol and diesel cars to be banned by 2040
- Thread starter Big Spender
- Start date
Why do you think batteries are going to become cheaper?
Lithium is a rare mineral, The price is likely to remain firm at best, and increase at worse. There is also an issue with the minerals needed to make the electric motor magnets.
As for future improvements in capacity. We would likely be requiring around 4KWhr/Kg to equal the performance of a liquid fuelled ICE.
Just for comparative purposes. The Batteries used in the Prius are around 40Whr/Kg and TNT is just over 1KWhr/Kg.
I dont see this happening any time soon.
EV's will be great for urban, daily short journies, etc. I have two GF's who I am advising should hang on to their old cars (Corsa and Jazz, both excellent reliable and economical cars. But both over 12 years old now and they are getting itchy feet, as girls do...
) for now and wait for EV's to become more practical.(Neither of them go over 30 miles a day, ever, EV's would be perfect for them)
I am not dissing EV's. Britain used to be a world leader in EV usage (Milk Floats) but I really believe they will only ever be a niche market globally, regardless of all the hype.
Wow how much can you get wrong in a single post and niche lol. You may want to look at Norway's sale figures. Hint it's 42% of new vehicles. Then look at legislation in countries like China.
Lithium is not rare.
They will decrease in price, they allready have and at a faster rate than predicted and with no signs of slowing down.
And no you do not need it anywhere close to 4kw per kg, what utter bonuses. For a start it is many times more effecient than ice, secondly it's about useable range rather than absolute density, Tesla and Chevy have allready shown you can have useable range at reasonable costs today.
Lithium is not rare.
They will decrease in price, they allready have and at a faster rate than predicted and with no signs of slowing down.
And no you do not need it anywhere close to 4kw per kg, what utter bonuses. For a start it is many times more effecient than ice, secondly it's about useable range rather than absolute density, Tesla and Chevy have allready shown you can have useable range at reasonable costs today.
OK, I will qualify this a bit.
Consider this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_by_country
Play with that a bit, As I said, Urban environments are great for EV's, Rural ones however are not.
The 4KWhr/Kg allows for the conversion eficency of an ICE, though perhaps I should have said 2-4Kwrh/Kg to allow for different technologies. It is certainly the case that 1KWhr/|Kg would be needed and that is comparable to TNT and rather more than Gunpowder. The day will come when we will have some very nasty accidents involving EV's
Oh they have http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-37104753
And before you point out that Hydrocarbons burn too (Which is the whole point of an ICE after all
) the difference is that with a high energy density battery, all the reactants all together in the same box. Once a battery catches fire it cannot be extinguished.I also take issue with
"Tesla and Chevy have already shown you can have usable range at reasonable costs today"
It is the "Reasonable Costs" bit that gets my Goat.
There are obviously a very large contingent of people here who are very well paid and would think little of sinkling 20-30 grand on a new car and think it is good V for M
You all forgetting that the majority of the population are not in this position. I for instance, haven't spent more than £1000 on buying a car in the last 20 years, nor have I bought one that was less than 15 years old at the time of purchase. I would never in my wildest fantasy be able to buy a "New" EV, and old ones are either going to be useless heaps of junk with not enough range left to get to the top of the drive or they will be really rather nice, but tied to battery lease arrangements that will mean they cost just as much to own as a new one. And on a monthly commitment too most likley.
neither new cars nor "Subscription World" are an acceptable option for me
Neither will it be an option for tens of millions of other people!
You still haven't substantiated anything. You've stuck to your wrong assumptions. Even reducing it tob1kw per kg is still utter bs, as shown by the existing cars.
However 2nd hand EVs are an option for you especially in20years time
However 2nd hand EVs are an option for you especially in20years time
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Comparing a brand new cutting edge EV to a £1k used car on price... good argument.
Why do batteries need to be as energy dense as petrol/diesel? There in completely different leagues when it comes to efficiency. Not to mention the insane amount energy that is needed to produce the petrol/diesel in the first place.
Range and re-charge speed is all that matters in an EV. Recharging speed only matters when you exceed the range of the vehicle in a very short space of time. Cars spend 90% of their life parked, plenty of time to slow charge them. There really isn't that much need for huge networks with hundreds of thousands of 150kw chargers even if all cars were EV's because you only need to use them when you exceed the rage of the car. On a 200 mile EV that occurrence is very very rare for the vast majority of people. Everyone else just needs a 2.4kw charger running off a 3 pin plug or a 7kw type 2 hardwired charger to charge at home overnight. A 200 mile EV probably only needs charging weekly for most people.
The main challenge is putting in charge posts in the streets for people that don't have their own drive. But those chargers are really cheap to install (compared to a fast charger you see at a service station) and they can be retrofitted into street lamps, dedicated posts added etc. All the power cables are already there underground, posts just need to be added. Its just the metering and how they charge customers that would need to be worked out. This would need to be either public infrastructure (unlikely) or heavily regulated private companies providing the service just as electricity is done now.
Also it should be noted that we will run out of steal before lithium to produce electric cars.
Why do batteries need to be as energy dense as petrol/diesel? There in completely different leagues when it comes to efficiency. Not to mention the insane amount energy that is needed to produce the petrol/diesel in the first place.
Range and re-charge speed is all that matters in an EV. Recharging speed only matters when you exceed the range of the vehicle in a very short space of time. Cars spend 90% of their life parked, plenty of time to slow charge them. There really isn't that much need for huge networks with hundreds of thousands of 150kw chargers even if all cars were EV's because you only need to use them when you exceed the rage of the car. On a 200 mile EV that occurrence is very very rare for the vast majority of people. Everyone else just needs a 2.4kw charger running off a 3 pin plug or a 7kw type 2 hardwired charger to charge at home overnight. A 200 mile EV probably only needs charging weekly for most people.
The main challenge is putting in charge posts in the streets for people that don't have their own drive. But those chargers are really cheap to install (compared to a fast charger you see at a service station) and they can be retrofitted into street lamps, dedicated posts added etc. All the power cables are already there underground, posts just need to be added. Its just the metering and how they charge customers that would need to be worked out. This would need to be either public infrastructure (unlikely) or heavily regulated private companies providing the service just as electricity is done now.
Also it should be noted that we will run out of steal before lithium to produce electric cars.
Soldato
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This entire thread makes me sad 
I'm not on board with Electric cars at all at the minute. I just don't think the tech is there to the level it would be required for it to actually be feasible. Of course, yes, 2040 is a long time away but nevertheless
I'm not on board with Electric cars at all at the minute. I just don't think the tech is there to the level it would be required for it to actually be feasible. Of course, yes, 2040 is a long time away but neverthelessEV's will be great for urban, daily short journies, etc. I have two GF's who I am advising should hang on to their old cars (Corsa and Jazz, both excellent reliable and economical cars. But both over 12 years old now and they are getting itchy feet, as girls do...
(Neither of them go over 30 miles a day, ever, EV's would be perfect for them)
It won't necessarily be cheaper for them to use an EV though. The "battery rental" often ends up costing more than petrol if you doing short journeys, but they don't have the range for long ones. So there's kind of a narrow window where they are actually a viable alternative.
Not to mention the cost of actually buying one and EVs are expensive (and depreciate like crazy). As well as increased electricity bills.
Lithium rare
From Wiki....
What part of the phrase "Rare" is not being fully understood here???
It will be rare once we build an EV for everyone though along with all the other planned energy storage projects. Plus the other rare metals needed in them, like gold for the contacts. Running low on rare materials will be the next big crysis.
There's also the problem of lithium itself being quite dangerous.
There's also the problem of lithium itself being quite dangerous.
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My biggest "Rare Mineral" concern is actually Helium. Most other minerals are actually available in vast quantities in sea water and granite. It is just that extracting them would be horrendously expensive, but they are still there. But Helium really is a case of when it is gone, it is gone!
My biggest "Rare Mineral" concern is actually Helium. Most other minerals are actually available in vast quantities in sea water and granite. It is just that extracting them would be horrendously expensive, but they are still there. But Helium really is a case of when it is gone, it is gone!
Yea and for some reason they still supply it for blowing up party balloons, which is super dumb.
The idea of that makes me cry, it really does!
I actually feel guilty using it for welding :/
Helium really should be preserved for emerging superconductivity tech and things like the GT-MHR.
It really should be a legal requirement that all helium extracted from gas fields should be captured and stored.
An outdated source that fails to take into account basic economics and technology, the same failure that said we would run out of oil in the 90s and yet still haven't come close.
Same for hellium we are not about to run out in the slightest, scare stories combined with a basic misunderstanding of what global reserves actually mean.
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Unless petrol stations no longer exist - there's no need. This only effects the sale of new cars.
Associate
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- 693
I certainly think investing in the metals/ minerals that make car batteries could be a shrewd investment right now.
Can you link the sources that you derive your knowledge from?
Can you link the sources that you derive your knowledge from?
People miss understand what reserves mean and why any estates taken from those numbers is utterly meaningless
https://www.google.se/amp/s/www.for...out-of-helium-no-please-stop-it-were-not/amp/
Lithium is going to drop in price, I did initially think like you and looked into buying shares etc surrounding it. However there is so much untapped resource, combined with ineffecent extraction as it ramps up it will fall in price. Even buying shares in a particular company isn't looking good. Theres large Lithium deposits in so many countries your unlike to see a single one doing well.
Depends on the age of the vehicle. Newer models hit around 11mpg when pulling 26t over 300 miles (I used to compile fuel figures for a transport company hauling steel, bricks etc..)
Your standard supermarket chauffeur will be better as they update their fleet and the load is lighter.
Don't know if its been mentioned but they can always use other fuels (i think it was covered in the report) but no idea on economy for alternative fuels.
