Hi everyone.
This is my first post on your very informative thread about the world of autonomous vehicles, so I thought I would introduce myself and how I think about things.
Most of my posts on Overclockers have been about mobile phones and accessories and anyone who cares to look at my posts will find I have a positive view of what Google has been able to achieve in software, esp with the Android operating system and more recently with hardware on a number of devices. For example, I have owned both Nexus and Pixel phones and accessories such as Google Home, Chromebooks, Google WiFi and Nest thermostat and CO detector. I believe that their relatively new approach with consumer hardware is important to display their software prowess.
Whether you agree with me or not about Google's successes and failures I look at the way the so called "smart money" sees them. They are the second most valuable company in the world after Apple based on market capitalisation. As far as this thread is concerned, Google through its Waymo unit have been testing autonomous vehicles since 2009 and arguably are leaders in this space. So with that intro, I hope you might appreciate both my views and opinions as a tech generalist (I am a businessman, not a technologist and not employed in technology). I have read a number of the posts and in principle, find the comments by adam the cool dude and Mercenary Keyboard Warrior and others to be more in line with my thinking. I see a logical extension of my mobile phone posting to this thread as in many ways (tongue in cheek), I see autonomous vehicles as mobile phones on wheels.
So I look at the issue of autonomous vehicles from a generalist's point of view. I ask myself first, what are the problems with the current approach: so called "auto 1.0". I believe there are four problems: 1. Underutilised. Your car is one of the most under-utilsed, polluting, time-consuming and dangerous machines on Planet Earth. According to studies I have read, your car is in operation on average for approximately 1 hour per day. 2. Polluting. The world's light vehicles travel in total 10 trillion miles per year with an average fuel economy of 20 miles per gallon, consuming 0.5 trillion gallons of petrochemical in the internal combustion engine. Light vehicles account for approx 45% of global oil demand, or approx 70 gallons of refined product consumed per person on earth annually. 3. Time consuming. Cars travel at an average speed of 25 mph implying 400 billion hours of time (calculated as 10 trillion miles divided by 25 mph) drivers spend operating the vehicle and doing little else. You can also add the 200 billion hours passengers spend in their unconnected car. Hence an businessman could compute that the value of this precious time could be worth many trillions of dollars/pounds/euros. 4. Dangerous. According to the World Health Organisation, approx 1.3 million people die every year in traffic related accidents or approx 3,500 per day. This figure omits the significantly greater number of serious and/or incapacitating injuries suffered by vehicle occupants and pedestrians, representing one of the greatest health hazards we have today.
As a businessman who uses technology extensively, I believe that each of the four problems I mentioned can be addressed through technology which exists today and at a relatively low cost. The businessman in me sees the global auto market (one of the world's largest industries) in economic terms and from the perspective of all the inputs that are required to deliver 10 trillion miles travelled every year (1 billion cars travelling 10,000 miles per car). The global addressable market for mobility represents a huge business opportunity as measured by the contribution this industry makes to the world's GDP.
So from my 10,000 foot view looking down on the real world I think:
1. Sharing expensive assets (the car you purchase is often the second most expensive asset you buy) increases their utilisation. Adding automation further increases its utilisation, replacing the human with a system that can work harder, more consistently, predictably, reliably and safely. I see the cost of automotive transport in this new world decreasing significantly over the next decade.
2. The leading players in automotive today, the manufacturers will need to adapt: develop new skills in consumer electronics, software and data analytics or become severely marginalised in what will become a utility business as the business model shifts the value from the hardware to the software to deliver the mobility, the content consumed during the journey and the data produced from the experience of the passengers and from the journey itself.
3. New players will emerge adding competition. Perhaps some new players can offer the transportation at cost or at a loss for the opportunity to monetise the content/data. Great news for consumers.
4. Public-private partnerships seem likely to develop at a local level. Severe traffic and environmental tipping points make this more urgent in some local places---China, India come to mind.
Some regions of the world seem more likely to move more quickly to shared mobility and autonomous driving than others. For example, Europe and the UK have more advanced public transport models than other regions such as the US, Canada, China, India, etc. Strong barriers to change still exist in many forms. Car ownership is still viewed as a status symbol in many regions making for social resistance to change. Public policy is stronger in some regions than others. Lobbying power of the incumbents (auto workers, car dealers, etc) tends to slow down change. An interesting demographic: aging populations set up an interesting dynamic for autonomous vehicles. Many other examples can be cited.
How close are we to achieving fully autonomous shared mobility? Probably years away but closer than many think. Two interesting Google/Waymo announcements I have noticed recently:
1. Waymo has begun testing their fully self driving vehicles on public roads in Arizona without a driver in the front seat.
https://medium.com/waymo/with-waymo...-transform-the-way-we-get-around-75e9622e829a
2. Google's Sidewalk Labs and the city of Toronto recently announced plans for Sidewalk Labs to help create an internet city on the Eastern Waterfront of Toronto, which would include self driving vehicles.
https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/17/16488942/alphabet-sidewalk-labs-toronto-quayside
Bottom line: change is coming.
Hope this post helps stimulate further discussion.
