US kills Iran's General Soleimani

The plane was only 3 ½ years old out of the Boeing Factory:



It just doesn't seem very likely that a newish plane with a decent track record (737-800) just happens to crash in a a country that let off a barrage of missiles against American targets a few hours earlier.

"Decent" track record of safety (actually it's a pretty good track record), but this wouldn't be the first fatal crash by a 737-800, nor of the wider newer generation of 737s. They aren't common but they do happen.
 
Iran will have ground to air missiles than can hit a passenger plane at cruising altitude,maybe they would struggle against military aircraft evading and jamming but an airline is easy pickings.
So yes they can easily blow a passenger plane out of the sky at 8,000ft

Nothing to say one of the ballistic missiles managed to hit it,unlucky Indeed if that's the case.
 
Quite obviously Iran shot it down because the likelihood of a plane accidently crashing in Iran on the same night that Iran shoots 22 ballistic missiles at a US base is pretty much zero

Which missiles would they be using to shoot down a Ukrainian commercial plane at 8,000 feet? And what motivation would they have for doing this?

You don't think Iran can shoot a plane down at merely 8,000 feet?! Better tell America they didn't need to spend all that money on B-2's, F-22's and F-35's then, they could just have B-52's bomb them from 10,000 feet.
 
From the BBC

Ukraine's embassy in Tehran and Iranian state television both initially said technical issues caused the crash.

But the embassy later removed this statement and said any comment regarding the cause of the accident prior to a commission's inquiry was not official.
 
One of four things happened

1) A near brand-new plane had a technical issue causing it to crash
2) Iran shot it down on purpose
3) Iran shot it down by mistake
4) America shot it down by mistake, thinking it was a military target/imminent threat.
 
How far were the launch of the missiles and the fight path of both the plane and missiles? I have no idea but I thought my understanding was that the plane came down shortly after take off. So it could be possible that the plane was accidently hit as it was taking off but I would think this is highly unlikely. That being said maybe someone here can track both the flight of the missiles and plane and work out if the timings work.
 
Doesn't really matter - Trump stated he'd launch attacks against 52 targets if they attacked.... they've attacked. Can't see him suddenly coming out and being like: "actually only some Iraqis died this time so it's all cool guys, we'll leave them alone now".

I think he's going to do what he said he would do...

Do you think he should follow through on his threat and attack these 52 targets now?
 
One of four things happened

1) A near brand-new plane had a technical issue causing it to crash
2) Iran shot it down on purpose
3) Iran shot it down by mistake
4) America shot it down by mistake, thinking it was a military target/imminent threat.

I'm betting on No. 3 with an outside chance of No. 4, i certainly don't think it was shot down on purpose
 
One of four things happened

1) A near brand-new plane had a technical issue causing it to crash
2) Iran shot it down on purpose
3) Iran shot it down by mistake
4) America shot it down by mistake, thinking it was a military target/imminent threat.

For me options 1 and 4 seem quite unlikely.

It seems like too much of a coincidence that a plane like that, would just suddenly crash on take off, it's certainly possible - it just seems very unlikely, when you consider everything else that's going on.

As for the Americans, they have such sophisticated weapons and targeting systems, I'd be surprised if they were responsible, again it's possible, but seems very unlikely.

I'd bet on option 3 myself, perhaps a similar incident to MH17... but who knows..
 
Do you think he should follow through on his threat and attack these 52 targets now?

I'm erring towards I think he should wait tbh... we don't have all the info/battle damage reports and can only speculate - there does seem to be some notion that his gambit has had an effect - seems even the fanatics in Iran aren't quite so suicidal. He sent the required message that the rules had changed, he's taken out some of the people behind these attacks and Iran gets to spin a token attack to an angry domestic audience made angrier still by the funeral deaths etc.. oh and now an airline.

On the other hand he's got every right to reply to it, not quite sure how much it was really a "precise" attack so much as a limited one. Question is what is Iran offering next - what assurances can we have that they aren't going to carry on launching proxy attacks in say a few weeks from now.
 
You don't think Iran can shoot a plane down at merely 8,000 feet?!

Don't be ridiculous, of course they can. But where is the evidence that they did?

They have dozens of weapons systems, some short range, low altitude to long range high altitude. I know it's only a Wiki article, but take your pick from any of :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Air_Defense_Force

OK, and why would they be using these over their own airfield?
 
Back
Top Bottom