Sale of petrol and diesel cars to be banned by 2040

[Deleted User 234324]

An EV creates as much as 70% more carbon during its production over an ICE version of the same vehicle.

On the road though it's a different story with an EV producing as much as 95% less carbon emissions per mile driven, and that number will only improve in time as production for electricity becomes cleaner with renewables.

An EV offsets it's increased production carbon emissions within 6 months of driving. A petrol/diesel car will never be able to do that.

 

[Nasher]

Assuming I am still driving, I will probably still be running one of the vehicles I currently have. (all but my Luton Van are already over 20 years old)

I like machines I can fix myself. Indeed, my retirement economic model relies on my being able to do so.

Modern cars generally, even the ICE ones, are rapidly becoming rich mans toys since any but the most limited DIY is out of the question for most people these days.

But that is another story.

Yep I hate that too. Modern German cars especially are a nightmare do to anything on. Most likely they make them difficult on purpose so you pay them to do any work, which ofc needs lots of labour.

A few Japanese cars you can open the bonnet and see an engine rather than a mountain of plastic though.

 

[McPhee]

whether we use it or not will have absolutely no impact on the global situation

The country with the fifth highest carbon emissions since 1900, swapping a large chunk of its fuel for one with 1/3rd higher carbon intensity, would have "absolutely no impact on the global situation"?

That seems somewhat implausible.

 

[Orionaut]

The country with the fifth highest carbon emissions since 1900, swapping a large chunk of its fuel for one with 1/3rd higher carbon intensity, would have "absolutely no impact on the global situation"?

That seems somewhat implausible.

If the UK vanished off the face of the globe tomorrow. Any emissions gains will be gone within a decade or so due to general global population growth and increasing global prosperity.

"Cutting emissions" will only have a significant effect if the world population remains static and everybody else is willing to remain poor.

The biggest thing that the UK could do to "Cut Emissions" would be to allow our population to fall.

The biggest obstacle the to UK cutting emissions is allowing our population to grow. (Either internally or through immigration)

Using our Coal doesn't actually have to be a CO2 nightmare either. There are ways we could use it and reduce (though obviously not eliminate) CO2 emission from what they are now at the same time.

 

[McPhee]

If the UK vanished off the face of the globe tomorrow. Any emissions gains will be gone within a decade or so due to general global population growth and increasing global prosperity.

"Cutting emissions" will only have a significant effect if the world population remains static and everybody else is willing to remain poor.

The biggest thing that the UK could do to "Cut Emissions" would be to allow our population to fall.

The biggest obstacle the to UK cutting emissions is allowing our population to grow. (Either internally or through immigration)

The UK's carbon emissions have fallen by 35% since 1990, in spite of a growing population. Carbon emissions per capita have almost halved in 40 years. And we're far from done yet; emissions are still falling year-on-year despite a growing population. The idea that we can't make significant progress without a reduction in population is bogus. We're making progress, and providing an example to

The change in the UK, relative to most of the world, is quite incredible really. Sure, it's relatively easy for us as a post-industrial economy, but of the world's largest economies, nobody has cleaned up as fast as we have. Personally, I don't understand why some are so desperate to turn that in to something negative. We've changed from one of the worst polluters (<1970) to being well on our way to becoming a clean nation.

 

[Orionaut]

The UK's carbon emissions have fallen by 35% since 1990, in spite of a growing population. Carbon emissions per capita have almost halved in 40 years. That's why the UK vanishing off the face of the planet would have very little impact.

The same wasn't true before ~1970 though, when we were one of the biggest polluters.

Strictly speaking, were we to include exports, our peak emissions were around 1900.

But that's not really the point.

Our main reason for cutting CO2 over the last 50 years is the switch from coal to gas.

The second reason is the collapse of our heavy industries. Exporting our pollution =/= pollution reduction (In many cases it might have made things worse)

Unfortunately, Gas really isn't the best thing to use for electricity since it is a premium fuel in its own right, also we have made ourselves increasingly reliant on imports

We still use Oil, but we could with a little effort, continue to do so while at the same time reducing CO2 emissions.

We could eliminate the use of gas by other means.

We could replace our Oil for transport with coal and still reduce CO2 emissions, as I sadi, with a little effort and eliminate our reliance on imported fuels.

We could do a lot of this with tech that is available now and is known to work, and we could also do it a bit at a time, and none of this would prevent us from also looking into longer term non-fossil alternatives.

What we don't want to be doing (IMO) is rushing down a massively expensive pathway, that puts us all in a position where we are even more reliant on imported resources, that will have catastrophic consequences if it turns out to be the wrong one!

 

[Chris1712]

https://heft.manager-magazin.de/MM/2020/3/169534497/index.html

Things just get better and better for these 'Tesla Killers'. Looks very unlikely they'll hit their fleet targets for C02 now, $10bn fine on the way! Needed to sell 70k Etrons & 100k ID3, they've managed 26k Etrons before stopping production and they can't even get the ID3 started!

 

[Deleted User 234324]

Without significant investment and even greater losses the big automotive manufacturers are in trouble long term. The thing with Tesla is they only make electric vehicles, that is their only source of revenue. The likes of VW still rely heavily on their fossil fuel vehicles. The would need to drop development of petrol/diesel vehicles and put all money into EV for them to really stand a chance. Those C02 targets are only going to get tighter and tighter as the years go by.

Tesla are not only a head of everyone else, they will continue to for some time as its going to be extremely hard for anyone to catch up. not just in terms of vehicles, but infrastructure as well.

 

[Nasher]

The UK's carbon emissions have fallen by 35% since 1990, in spite of a growing population. Carbon emissions per capita have almost halved in 40 years. And we're far from done yet; emissions are still falling year-on-year despite a growing population. The idea that we can't make significant progress without a reduction in population is bogus. We're making progress, and providing an example to

The change in the UK, relative to most of the world, is quite incredible really. Sure, it's relatively easy for us as a post-industrial economy, but of the world's largest economies, nobody has cleaned up as fast as we have. Personally, I don't understand why some are so desperate to turn that in to something negative. We've changed from one of the worst polluters (<1970) to being well on our way to becoming a clean nation.

Shipping our manufacturing to China is probably the reason.

 

[Jez]

Shipping our manufacturing to China is probably the reason.

Indeed, we sent all of our manufacturing offshore and now claim to be cleaner. If we closed all of our power plants and exclusively import we'd be even cleaner

 

[adam cool dude]

Without significant investment and even greater losses the big automotive manufacturers are in trouble long term. The thing with Tesla is they only make electric vehicles, that is their only source of revenue. The likes of VW still rely heavily on their fossil fuel vehicles. The would need to drop development of petrol/diesel vehicles and put all money into EV for them to really stand a chance. Those C02 targets are only going to get tighter and tighter as the years go by.

Tesla are not only a head of everyone else, they will continue to for some time as its going to be extremely hard for anyone to catch up. not just in terms of vehicles, but infrastructure as well.

Toyota could march in and buy Tesla tomorrow if they want to. What are you on about.

 

[Deleted User 234324]

That's assuming Elon would want to sell. Toyota have also flip flopped loads on EV's, one minute they will, the next they won't, now they are apparently commiting to EV with 6 vehicles to be announced between now and 2025. Sooner rather than later, as I feel the next few years are crucial for anyone entering the EV market.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

You don't have to be bigger or richer than someone to buy someone else, it means nothing.
I could buy Toyota tomorrow, I just need to find someone with roughly $240Bn to lend to me.

By market cap Toyota are roughly 2.4 times the size of Tesla, a year ago it was many times more than that.
If the trends continue of countries pushing green, its only a matter of time before the value of the traditional companies trying to cling on to the ICE get smashed, unless they get with the agenda.

The value of Tesla is boosted by the lagging from the other companies. If you had a similar offering from Toyota to what Tesla offer now, it would be a harder sell for Tesla, many would lean to the experience of Toyota over many years as a safety net compared to Tesla

Tesla could buy Toyota tomorrow if they had the funding. I doubt they would want to, normally the cutting edge companies are the ones who are bought, but there would probably be value from Toyota to Tesla. Whilst Tesla have the tech end sewn up, they would probably really benefit from the years of knowledge of a company like Toyota on the logistsics, planning etc. Lets not forget that Toyota came up with the concept of JIT.

Its really difficult to see a best position here for the existing manufacturers. As ever the cutting edge of tech is expensive, and its always difficult to copyright and patent enough that competitors cant gain most of the benefits for little expenditure by simply copying.
The risk is that they let Tesla get far enough ahead that they genuinely become a full blown competitor to the mainstream brands. As we know the car manufacturers are repeatedly merging or working together to survive, smaller ones constantly die.
Some of the manufacturers are worse than others, not really investing in the tech at all.

In business speak, the existing companies have to ensure they don't fall far enough behind that they lose the status of existing to Tesla, and that they in effect become the challengers.

 

[Nasher]

Tesla did the research and are doing the beta testing, then it will be sold off at some point I bet. Musk is more interested in doing Kerbal Space Program IRL.

 

[Deleted User 234324]

Telsa want the competition, which is why they open sourced a lot of their technology.

 

[Journey]

The risk is that they let Tesla get far enough ahead that they genuinely become a full blown competitor to the mainstream brands. As we know the car manufacturers are repeatedly merging or working together to survive, smaller ones constantly die.

Sadly it's already too late for some of them, they are under mountains of debt, which is growing, facing massive fines from the EU due to CO2 emissions and global cars sales are in a massive slump unless you are selling BEV's where they can't make them fast enough.

There's a great report from Deloitte UK showing the predicted impact of the BEV market from now until 2030, and some of those big brands that people just assume will be around will be minnows, or gone completely. Just like people assumed, Nokia, Blackberry, or Kodak etc. would still be around as they were leader in their fields at one point in time. The fact that people cannot see this shows how ignorant they are to the incoming changes, and they'll be left scratching their heads in 10 years time when the local Jaguar dealer, or BMW dealer is boarded up and empty.

 

[Jez]

Sadly it's already too late for some of them, they are under mountains of debt, which is growing, facing massive fines from the EU due to CO2 emissions and global cars sales are in a massive slump unless you are selling BEV's where they can't make them fast enough.

There's a great report from Deloitte UK showing the predicted impact of the BEV market from now until 2030.

Can you link to this report? I imagine a lot in this forum would be interested

edit: interesting reading for car enthusiasts i would think, thanks for mentioning https://www2.deloitte.com/content/d...ing/deloitte-uk-battery-electric-vehicles.pdf

 

[McPhee]

There was a panel on the "Tesla vs the rest" thing at Fully Charged Live USA.

https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=a...d=0CAUQzsICahcKEwj4wITknO_nAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAQ

Personally, I think some of the participants were a bit fruity. But then... America; the land where overly bold claims could be considered normal.

One thing I took from it was that the majority of the panel agreed that Tesla are way ahead of the competition, yet none of them could give clear reasons as to why (aside from battery manufacture and the supercharger network).

 

[Deleted User 234324]

I'm gonna mimic Jouney's post here and agree completely. I see where tech is going, I may be off with time frames for it and bare excessive regulation it will happen. It's happening with drones now, it happened with electric cars a decade ago and it will happen again with autonomous vehicles but mark my words, it's not if its going to happen, its when.

Certainly in modern society where making money is thr driving force for business, if they can remove labour costs of people and replace them with robotic cars, they will. It's how big business functions even now, employees aren't "people" they are just numbers in a system.

 

[Journey]

Can you link to this report? I imagine a lot in this forum would be interested

edit: interesting reading for car enthusiasts i would think, thanks for mentioning https://www2.deloitte.com/content/d...ing/deloitte-uk-battery-electric-vehicles.pdf

You found it before I got a chance to respond.

I doubt that a lot of people who post here will bother to read it, or indeed have knowledge to understand it given some of the utter tripe that gets posted about the transition from here on out.