Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Richdog · 26 Mar 2020 at 18:23

xaldub said:
I can't see these green days persisting. Once the crisis truly hits the U.S, things are going to plummet again. I do hope I'm wrong, though.

I certainly think you are right because the worst is yet to come in the USA and EU. Things haven't peaked.

I think this current upwards trend is based around a surge of optimism and cash injections to the economy... it will go back down when the poo hits the fan.

xaldub · 26 Mar 2020 at 18:26

Richdog said:
I certainly think you are right because the worst is yet to come in the USA and EU. Things haven't peaked.

I think this current upwards trend is based around a surge of optimism and cash injections to the economy... it will go back down when the poo hits the fan.

That's exactly my thinking also.

Bes · 26 Mar 2020 at 18:46

I’m have 50% of my savings in a certain US cloud computing firm (I work for them hence the huge exposure). It’s a fairly significant sum hence the temptation to pile out during this purple patch. I can see things going south badly but am I going to massively regret selling if the markets keep rising.... This rise just seems totally unsustainable. Super tough call.

Minusorange · 26 Mar 2020 at 18:53

How many of you have seen the big short ?

Really feels like we're in the film right now at the moment where the numbers are looking like dog **** but the value still keeps rising

BennyC · 26 Mar 2020 at 19:49

xaldub said:
I can't see these green days persisting. Once the crisis truly hits the U.S, things are going to plummet again. I do hope I'm wrong, though.

I have one all american fund which is currently holding a small profit having receded to a loss last week. It was one of my best performers and is now one of the few on paper holding a profit.

I've a long term view on all my holdings but part of me wants to *shudder* time the market on this one given the absolute **** storm that's about to hit over there.

Still waiting, two of my pension transfers are complete and are currently sat as cash along with other sums topped up last week.

I don't consider myself experienced at all but even my gut is telling me this is only going to come back down in the next few weeks/months.

englishpremier · 26 Mar 2020 at 20:18

Russinating said:
You just need to change "people on here" to "people on the internet"... or indeed "people in life". People will always want to brag about successes, but try and hide failures, for obvious reasons. Still, it's not helpful or useful to anyone, but anyone experienced in whatever it is (be it stocks or any other business) will see through the bull.

Personally all my stocks are long term, always have been, so I've not touched a single thing. What with it being the end of the tax year I've already invested all I can in my ISA so realistically no opportunities missed either, if there's realistically been any. My current portfolio is down 10%, I couldn't tell you exactly what it was immediately pre-CV19 but it was around 17%, so 27% down.

I'm only -1.18% on the S&P atm which shows how much up I was pre-cash!

It could just be that they have won more than they have lost. Many will have some paper losses but their wins especially longer term could be much higher. For example people that bought AMD a couple of years ago are sitting on a 350% increase. Microsoft a year or so ago are on a high double to triple digit increase too. Nvidia after they tanked more than 50%, are winning now.

mid_gen · 26 Mar 2020 at 20:53

I think we've priced in the initial shock value of it actually being a serious pandemic and not a news story.

I don't think we've yet priced in the long term fundamental changes in behaviour and economics that are going to have to happen, let alone how on earth we go about unwinding from this lockdown which let's not forget, is still several weeks away from the ugliest scenes of overwhelming cases.

It's not going to be a uniform recovery, some companies will thrive in this new era, others (like the tourism industry) face annihilation. Some good choices in the coming weeks and people can do very well.

Still sticking with my prediction that we have another, deeper bottom to come though.

The_Abyss · 26 Mar 2020 at 22:47

booyaka said:
I was being factious. I ain't moaning about it, just find it funny that people claim huge wins in 2 days, yet never report the fact everything else they own has tanked.

I'm well aware of what's going on, however as others have said, people on here only seem to report their winners, never their losers, that's what I was getting at.

My focus is equally on two things - my own funds, along with a substantial amount of funds that my clients have invested via myself.

From what I've seen, 95% of the posts in this thread, with a very few but notable exceptions, exhibit traits more akin to gambling. Forget value, think 'gut' or 'instinct' or even 'I think'.

Bes · 26 Mar 2020 at 23:04

US now has more CV cases than anywhere else in the world. Surely that will sap optimism out of the market tomorrow. Could be some ugly days coming.

R.P.L · 26 Mar 2020 at 23:34

Minusorange said:
How many of you have seen the big short ?

Really feels like we're in the film right now at the moment where the numbers are looking like dog **** but the value still keeps rising

It looked like that about 4 months ago to be fair. That's the tricky thing with the stock market - over the shortish term the action is dictated by sentiment rather than fundamentals.

caff · 26 Mar 2020 at 23:58

The_Abyss said:
From what I've seen, 95% of the posts in this thread, with a very few but notable exceptions, exhibit traits more akin to gambling. Forget value, think 'gut' or 'instinct' or even 'I think'.

I think gut instinct, based on societal changes, is a valuable proposition at this time. Basing your stock on market falls alone isn't great (the "it can only get better mentality"), but basing your buys on stocks that will survive or thrive ("there is value to this existing at this time, and in the future it shouldn't tank mentality") makes sense to me.

The_Abyss · 27 Mar 2020 at 00:04

caff said:
I think gut instinct, based on societal changes, is a valuable proposition at this time. Basing your stock on market falls alone isn't great (the "it can only get better mentality"), but basing your buys on stocks that will survive or thrive ("there is value to this existing at this time, and in the future it shouldn't tank mentality") makes sense to me.

And how much informed reasoning do you see in this thread, as opposed to one line opinion?

Not a pop at you at all, just a long term observation.

caff · 27 Mar 2020 at 00:15

The_Abyss said:
And how much informed reasoning do you see in this thread, as opposed to one line opinion?

Admittedly, not a lot, but I don't pay attention to a lot of people in life. For example, those buying a stock like BP at this time feels utterly mental to me - sure, you might gain +20% in a 10 day period then sell, but that's total gambling in my view.

The_Abyss · 27 Mar 2020 at 01:03

caff said:
Admittedly, not a lot

Hence my post.

But even your explanation is 'feels'.

caff said:
those buying a stock like BP at this time feels utterly mental to me - sure, you might gain +20% in a 10 day period then sell, but that's total gambling in my view.

Hence my original point - more akin to gambling.

Simon · 27 Mar 2020 at 04:49

caff said:
Admittedly, not a lot, but I don't pay attention to a lot of people in life. For example, those buying a stock like BP at this time feels utterly mental to me - sure, you might gain +20% in a 10 day period then sell, but that's total gambling in my view.

Don’t get how buying them at 240 is mental. They have proven record of getting through times like this and have billions in the bank. No plans to cut dividend which, at 240, would be around 12%.

The recovery is a lot quicker than I expected especially as oil price hasn’t moved yet. But maybe that shows they were massively oversold.

Ironic Namesake · 27 Mar 2020 at 07:16

The_Abyss said:
From what I've seen, 95% of the posts in this thread, with a very few but notable exceptions, exhibit traits more akin to gambling. Forget value, think 'gut' or 'instinct' or even 'I think'.

I won’t disagree - I set aside a small % of my broker account for risky trades with options which are volatile and risky. I’d never put any meaningful % of my account into those kind of trades

Skillmister · 27 Mar 2020 at 07:20

Minusorange said:
How many of you have seen the big short ?

Really feels like we're in the film right now at the moment where the numbers are looking like dog **** but the value still keeps rising

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreet...2008/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

NSFW (does this matter now everyone's at home?) swearies

Bes · 27 Mar 2020 at 08:55

Bes said:
US now has more CV cases than anywhere else in the world. Surely that will sap optimism out of the market tomorrow. Could be some ugly days coming.

Looks like the sucker’s rally is over

Skeptic · 27 Mar 2020 at 09:01

Bes said:
Looks like the sucker’s rally is over

Great opportunity today! Keep an emergency fund, keep your job if possible, reduce outgoings and DCA over time = profit. Or the world as we have understood it ends forever!

Minusorange · 27 Mar 2020 at 11:26

Skillmister said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreet...2008/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

NSFW (does this matter now everyone's at home?) swearies

Yes it feels exactly like that

I feel a lot of folk are going to get burned and aren't realising that this thing is going to last a lot longer than Donald's wish to have everything open at Easter and I don't think they've been able to actually price in the aftermath of loss of GDP/spending and people paying back all those Trillions of stimulus

I'd like to be wrong though because an even bigger crash will probably hurt way more than the virus will