Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
- Start date
I have to say i don't think this crisis is going to change much in terms of the way the world works... Even tourism will recover quickly. Those still in work and now working from home have had their holidays cancelled and are stuck inside. Once this blows over (and it will eventually) there is going to be a rush of people on holiday. Any companies left will be raking in the cash.
As for manufacturing and consumer goods i'm taking the rather simple view that they've lost about 3-4 months time of manufacture, so near term fair value is about 25% of their pre crisis peak. Anything below that is probably a buy if the company as a whole is sound (apple, microsoft, siemens and the like). Obviously hyper inflated stocks should be taken with a bigger pinch of salt (Tesla
). This is of course taking a long term view.
For the near term there's always Options to be bought. If the volatility continues something like straddles is a way of limiting your risk while also providing potential for profit.
As for manufacturing and consumer goods i'm taking the rather simple view that they've lost about 3-4 months time of manufacture, so near term fair value is about 25% of their pre crisis peak. Anything below that is probably a buy if the company as a whole is sound (apple, microsoft, siemens and the like). Obviously hyper inflated stocks should be taken with a bigger pinch of salt (Tesla
). This is of course taking a long term view.For the near term there's always Options to be bought. If the volatility continues something like straddles is a way of limiting your risk while also providing potential for profit.
Ho, boy... there was enough geopolitical turbulence and national schisms occurring as it was prior to this event, I shall take the opposite opinion on this. I find it exciting.
Soldato
- Joined
- 15 Feb 2003
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- 10,140
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- Europe
This. The US is the epicentre. It's likely to have more cases than the rest of the world put together in a week or two. It's going to tank.
Sold off my non-dividend paying US stocks today (including AMD - what a lovely ride that has been). I'm out.
EDIT:
There's a large FX hit on HL platform, and it always converts prices into sterling. Does anyone know a better platform for trading US stocks?
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I should have been clearer. I'm thinking more in terms of supply chains, manufacturing and consumer behaviour.
I agree that politics and probably borders will shift, but i don't believe it will massively change the things stated above. Definitely interesting times.
Soldato
- Joined
- 18 Oct 2002
- Posts
- 7,043
- Location
- Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
I have to say i don't think this crisis is going to change much in terms of the way the world works... Even tourism will recover quickly. Those still in work and now working from home have had their holidays cancelled and are stuck inside. Once this blows over (and it will eventually) there is going to be a rush of people on holiday. Any companies left will be raking in the cash.
As for manufacturing and consumer goods i'm taking the rather simple view that they've lost about 3-4 months time of manufacture, so near term fair value is about 25% of their pre crisis peak. Anything below that is probably a buy if the company as a whole is sound (apple, microsoft, siemens and the like). Obviously hyper inflated stocks should be taken with a bigger pinch of salt (Tesla
For the near term there's always Options to be bought. If the volatility continues something like straddles is a way of limiting your risk while also providing potential for profit.
The problem with buying straddles when the volatility is so high, you need relatively large moves to break even.
There’s always writing naked options, although much riskier!
Soldato
- Joined
- 18 Oct 2002
- Posts
- 7,043
- Location
- Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
If you want to deposit in GBP and trade in USD, Interactive Brokers are probably your best bet.
True.. but 3%-5% moves in indices is enough to cover the premium usually! IG only allows me to buy options on indices anyway rather than individual shares.
Taking short term directional punts via CFDs, spread betting etc.. is deceptively expensive and not going to end well for the vast majority of people who attempt it. Shadowing some random person doing the same is also probably not going to end well either... I'd stay well away from this sort of stuff tbh...
Folks
I want to learn the basics. What p/e ratio, market cap, div yeald, means etc and all the other random metrics. Can someone recommend me a free online simple course, video or tutorial please?
I literally know nothing other than looking at the share price and whats going on in the news.
I want to learn the basics. What p/e ratio, market cap, div yeald, means etc and all the other random metrics. Can someone recommend me a free online simple course, video or tutorial please?
I literally know nothing other than looking at the share price and whats going on in the news.
Soldato
- Joined
- 18 Oct 2002
- Posts
- 7,043
- Location
- Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Investopedia is a good place to start.
Good place to start would be to completely ignore the news.
Start with index investing. Newb friendly and hard to burn yourself starting out
Caporegime
- Joined
- 21 Jun 2006
- Posts
- 38,367
I have to say i don't think this crisis is going to change much in terms of the way the world works... Even tourism will recover quickly. Those still in work and now working from home have had their holidays cancelled and are stuck inside. Once this blows over (and it will eventually) there is going to be a rush of people on holiday. Any companies left will be raking in the cash.
As for manufacturing and consumer goods i'm taking the rather simple view that they've lost about 3-4 months time of manufacture, so near term fair value is about 25% of their pre crisis peak. Anything below that is probably a buy if the company as a whole is sound (apple, microsoft, siemens and the like). Obviously hyper inflated stocks should be taken with a bigger pinch of salt (Tesla
For the near term there's always Options to be bought. If the volatility continues something like straddles is a way of limiting your risk while also providing potential for profit.
I can pretty much guarantee although it will obviously spike soon as everything is lifted. There is no way there will be as much travelling as before.
Virgin has just asked the government for a bailout.
Expect others to follow suit.
Only the biggest players will survive.
The government shouldn't be bailing out any private businesses ever. Regardless of who they are.
Isn't it the case that a lot of these companies have been on a share buyback spree the last few years instead of building a little warchest to help out in these situations. Now they expect government hand outs of tax payers money is disgusting.
This is why I'm against bailouts. If they know they're on their own if the **** hits the fan, maybe we'll see a more responsible approach in future. I have more sympathy for smaller, less well established companies, but really these giant corporations have no excuse.
I don't mind bailouts when it's not their fault, but if they have offshore'd wealth, then they go **** themselves.
There needs to be real consequences for avoiding taxation in this manner.
I'd agree. If larger companies know they're delivering critical infrastructure and the Government will bail them out why bother behaving responsibly and keeping cash to hand? Might as well use any surplus to over extend and leverage yourself in search of further profit! It'll be 2008 with the banks holding us ransom all over again! Privatise the gains;Socialize the losses!
What companies/brokers do folk on here use for investing into index funds? Any recommendations?
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