Ref Gibbo Update on 3080 Shipping

[Gibbo]

So what you are saying is.... its not a simple mathematical calculation

Well yes, you can see the numbers, as others have pointed out the mathematics are there and as demand is showing no signs of dropping off, the mathematics still win as miracles are exactly that miracles which mathematically have a slim chance of happening, so I'd say logically maths still wins.

 

[Graeme Hind]

Well yes, you can see the numbers, as others have pointed out the mathematics are there and as demand is showing no signs of dropping off, the mathematics still win as miracles are exactly that miracles which mathematically have a slim chance of happening, so I'd say logically maths still wins.

In a normal situation i would totally agree, logic and maths indeed. But this situation has been so unpredictable and i am not an expert in PC component supply so i would hate to speculate -> asking the question.

 

[Loxa]

In a normal situation i would totally agree, logic and maths indeed. But this situation has been so unpredictable and i am not an expert in PC component supply so i would hate to speculate -> asking the question.

Just stay in the queue until the order is fulfilled or it is mass cancelled/you get a GPU from else where, it is that simple. The only factor that could change this is if you are desperate for the money.

 

[Gibbo]

In a normal situation i would totally agree, logic and maths indeed. But this situation has been so unpredictable and i am not an expert in PC component supply so i would hate to speculate -> asking the question.

We see no sign of things improving unfortunately, LHR models should come through soon, but these first ones we have taken are identical in price to the none LHR models, which is a shame, also the volumes are also no better. The only slim hope is LHR models in coming months will have better availability as the hope is the miners won't want those, though the scalpers still no doubt will so again slim chance.

 

[Graeme Hind]

We see no sign of things improving unfortunately, LHR models should come through soon, but these first ones we have taken are identical in price to the none LHR models, which is a shame, also the volumes are also no better. The only slim hope is LHR models in coming months will have better availability as the hope is the miners won't want those, though the scalpers still no doubt will so again slim chance.

Thank you for the information, mainly i wondered if the LHR drop would mean that the manufactures could then say "we will not honour pre orders on the previous lines with the new models replacing those". That does not sound to be the case which does sound positive...

 

[Gibbo]

Thank you for the information, mainly i wondered if the LHR drop would mean that the manufactures could then say "we will not honour pre orders on the previous lines with the new models replacing those". That does not sound to be the case which does sound positive...

I personally believe the none LHR models will become EOL, at least with some brands and they will move to only LHR models, but for the moment they are running side by side but I feel they will move to LHR only, I also feel NVIDIA will push them towards this also as NVIDIA make specific mining products which is what AIB's should be selling to miners or NVIDIA wish to be selling directly.

Once that happens one would hope LHR volumes will improve, the only issue then will be the pent up demand and scalpers unless of course the LHR models get hacked by miners......

 

[Obliter8]

All I can say is thanks for the honesty @Gibbo - for us consumers it's impossible to know the scale of the problem as we don't know the size of the market. I have no idea whether OcUK sells 100 graphics cards/day, 1,000 or 100,000! Your unvarnished truth is greatly appreciated.

Edit: to be specific in case this came across as fawning, it's always great when someone who knows the realities of the commercial world cuts through the marketing and commercial bs.

 

[Cooler running]

As per the "given up looking" thread, the supply and demand curve is a disaster on RTX 30 series stuff. The only real options people have at the moment are :

1) Hope that the volume increases by end of year, and you get your 3080. As Gibbo says, this is unlikely unless a new Fab or much higher precedence is put on gaming GPU production by Nvidia, allowing Asus to increase their own production several fold
2) Wait until the next generation, which will likely be at minimum some time in 2022, but likely further away
3) Cancel and buy a 6900xt. They are available for purchase now, Nvidia RTX was dealt a significant confidence blow recently by the announcement of of Unreal 5, so it's not exactly a terrible idea to go for one

 

[Game]

I agree that it can be considered basic mathematics in a way when you have all of the facts, i do not. I understand that you have a lot of experience in the industry, however we are in an unprecedented situation with a global pandemic, as the situation improves, so could the supply. Im sure many of us have felt this in our areas of expertise where areas that we could have previously used our experience and expertise has proved impossible due to unpredictability of the situation.

The situation is not improving seeing massive shortages in my line of work with production and shipping issues and if anything its slowly getting worse

 

[Game]

amd supply seems to be improving maybe get a rx6800xt seen them under £1000

 

[ScottiB]

The situation is not improving seeing massive shortages in my line of work with production and shipping issues and if anything its slowly getting worse

It's difficult to deny this. On our side some things, GPU included, have slowed down for sure. I'm wondering if, since industry has opened up faster than transport lines (i.e. commercial flights) that the already overloaded shipping lanes have become even more dominated by bigger industry.

 

[Joxeon]

Thank you for the information, mainly i wondered if the LHR drop would mean that the manufactures could then say "we will not honour pre orders on the previous lines with the new models replacing those". That does not sound to be the case which does sound positive...

The best thing you can do is leave the order open and then sign up to alerts for the founders edition model since that's the only card at msrp which you can buy "if your lucky / fast enough".

 

[Game]

It's difficult to deny this. On our side some things, GPU included, have slowed down for sure. I'm wondering if, since industry has opened up faster than transport lines (i.e. commercial flights) that the already overloaded shipping lanes have become even more dominated by bigger industry.

talking to some of our customers who run containers out of felixtowe even as far back as last year they predicted this

container space is at a all time low and costs are going up his example was a container of beermats with each one costing 1p more than before the pandemic

 

[SheepBeast]

Nvidia RTX was dealt a significant confidence blow recently by the announcement of of Unreal 5

Sorry this is slightly off-topic but what are you referring to here?

 

[Kaapstad]

the 3080 will probably only be around another year maximum and of course we already know they are releasing LHR versions.

Is it possible that as supply increases and NVidia have to offer better value for money they will discontinue the 3080 in favour of the 3080 Ti.

The reason I say this is to manufacture there is very little difference between the cards and the 3080 Ti is LHR already.

I can see the above happening quite quickly if circumstances change.

 

[ScottiB]

Is it possible that as supply increases and NVidia have to offer better value for money they will discontinue the 3080 in favour of the 3080 Ti.

The reason I say this is to manufacture there is very little difference between the cards and the 3080 Ti is LHR already.

I can see the above happening quite quickly if circumstances change.

anything is possible. I've had to give up saying to myself, 'nah that won't happen, that's an a**eh**e move'

 

[Joxeon]

Is it possible that as supply increases and NVidia have to offer better value for money they will discontinue the 3080 in favour of the 3080 Ti.

The reason I say this is to manufacture there is very little difference between the cards and the 3080 Ti is LHR already.

I can see the above happening quite quickly if circumstances change.

I don't think it will be officially discontinued rather that they will just make very few and prioritise the ti.

 

[varkanoid]

Congrats to Gibbo for saying how it is. We've seen this before small scale with the 9xx series but this is an unprecedented massive scale of GPU shortages and back orders where the product will never probably see the end user.
You cant really blame OCUK its basically a massive hint saying you may be 200th in the queue you may want to keep the order but secretly you aint gonna get a card this side of 2023 at this rate so maybe cut your losses and join the GPU FE hunters.

Unfortunately people are between a rock and a hard place and neither option is looking good the longer this goes on. Truth hurts. Like someone said first world problems. At least you still have your health.

 

[D1craig]

i imagine half the people in the queue for these cards will be sitting on cards that are only one generation old. im sitting on a vega 64 and i would never allow a shop to hold onto my 600 quid for a gpu for 9 months. i feel like i would be a total fool for sitting in such a situation for so long...

new cards means lazy devs and less optimisation. if we all stayed on a card from 5 -8 years ago the devs would have been forced to better optimise games.

 

[Cooler running]

Sorry this is slightly off-topic but what are you referring to here?

Just that unreal 5 has recently announced their Lumen lighting technology, which is meant to run more smoothly on non-RT specific hardware. It was supposed to be on topic as I was saying this as a reason why OP might consider a card like the 6900xt over waiting on a 3080 which may never ship.