Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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arknor said:
someone's calculating that he doesn't have the authority or people woudn't listen to the orders.

seems mental to be giving Ukraine jets, it's probably already one step too far
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Well, we now know the worst the west has done is allow Liz Truss to open her mouth in the eyes of Putin. Seems like we have been given carte Blanche to deploy everything upto and including nuclear weapons against Russia as that still doesn’t top that.
 
arknor said:
It just enforces the opinion that everyone in NATO is out to get Russia and they really are the Threat in the eyes of Russian military surely
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When Russia has already attacked a sovereign nation, she doesn't get to pretend that NATO is the aggressor.
 
Terminal_Boy said:
Russia appears to have sent their B Team and they do not control the skies over Ukraine. The large number of Western supplied and very effective anti tank weapons in the hand of determined Ukrainians is really hampering the Russian advance.
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Which makes me think he's allowing them to get slaughtered to point fingers to the Russian people and say that NATO/EU/<insert country here> are evil and cannot be trusted, then to validate the escalation of weaponry with support from the Russian people.

He's sacrificing the Russian economy to force people back to being dependant on the state handouts, thus making everyone equal and so some will be happy whereas others will nolonger be able make money and end up back at the state. State payouts then coupled with "happy camper Putin Points" then say how much you get or don't.

He's basically wanting to recreating the 1960s KGB/FSB golden era.

He's playing to benefit from a draw:draw, RU:NATO, with the Ukrainians losing.

I think this can only succeed with people allowing it. Or being talked into allowing it when the truth is right there in front of them.. sold the image they want to see.
 
Watching Newsnight who have General Michael Barrons on (ex Deputy Chief of the Defence Staff) and he seems to think that "public opinion" will force Western forces to intervene with air strikes later this week; sorry pal but I don't see it
 
NickK said:
Which makes me think he's allowing them to get slaughtered to point fingers to the Russian people and say that NATO/EU/<insert country here> are evil and cannot be trusted, then to validate the escalation of weaponry with support from the Russian people.

He's sacrificing the Russian economy to force people back to being dependant on the state handouts, thus making everyone equal and so some will be happy whereas others will nolonger be able make money and end up back at the state. State payouts then coupled with "happy camper Putin Points" then say how much you get or don't.

He's basically wanting to recreating the 1960s KGB/FSB golden era.

He's playing to benefit from a draw:draw, RU:NATO, with the Ukrainians losing.

I think this can only succeed with people allowing it. Or being talked into allowing it when the truth is right there in front of them.. sold the image they want to see.
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Yeah, I go along with a lot of this.
 
IGBT said:
Not sure. I think it was related to their nuclear weapons if handed over RUSS wouldn’t invade them and the alliance would intervene in case of any war. Was just talk and no signed document. So similar to this stuff vlad was talking about on this big press conference.
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Budapest Memorandum?
 
chrismscotland said:
Watching Newsnight who have General Michael Barrons on (ex Deputy Chief of the Defence Staff) and he seems to think that "public opinion" will force Western forces to intervene with air strikes later this week; sorry pal but I don't see it
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Well again, we will see. Depends how desperate things get and how far it escalates. If Russia start flattening towns and cities etc.
 
inogen said:
No, but what are they gonna do? Overthrow him?
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I honestly think that Western intelligence so far has been bang on and perhaps know more than anyone is letting on. I think the major players have Intel and waiting for this opportunity tbh, the whole change how they initially approached the situation with prr-emptive Intel release was almost as if they were goading Putin, beating him to the punch knowing there may be a weakness and situation to be finally exploited.

The way they have sought to support and rally the financial sanctions to such a degree so quickly, every day was developing to more and higher squeeze to current level, as though they known there is an opportunity internally for regime change, it is just unfortunate the catalyst has been on the back of such a heinous act. It's not the first time the Western block have used such actions to enact change, they've just never had the opportunity and it looks like the main players have managed to get complete and probably over expected buy in from the rest of the world. Hence the overwhelming support being sent to Ukraine from all over the globe, knowing the longer this drags on the harder it becomes for Putin to stand his position, the talk of nukes is just the natural escalation left in Putins tool box but suspect there be Intel to know that is extremely unlikely to ever happen, sotnheyll continue to support Ukraine (see air support escalation) I'm their resistance as every passing day his demise comes closer.

He clearly planned to have this special misson over within a few days, removed the Ukraine government, installed puppets and signed up to their accord. All before the west could even sanction or have time to react as the situation would have been 'resolved'. The resistance has been the perfect storm that's conspired against him and they have sought to seize their opportunity, as the Western world is effectively at war with Russia through Ukraine.

This is the end for Putin, it's only a matter of how many days he has left, and it will likely be days.
 
chrismscotland said:
Watching Newsnight who have General Michael Barrons on (ex Deputy Chief of the Defence Staff) and he seems to think that "public opinion" will force Western forces to intervene with air strikes later this week; sorry pal but I don't see it
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The same thought has crossed my mind. They know it’s not the right thing to do (air strikes or a no fly zone) but public opinion is supporting it. I just don’t see it as it would be a huge escalation. Drones could be the only way it could be done without it being known.
 
A military analyst has done a great write up on how/why Russia have failed so hard so far and what exactly they're doing with their tactics:

Long thread about how I think the first 96 hours have gone, still very early/incomplete impressions. The initial Russian operation was premised on terrible assumptions about Ukraine’s ability & will to fight, and an unworkable concept of operations. Moscow badly miscalculated. The Russian operation was focused on getting to Kyiv quickly, forcing a surrender, and pushing a small number of units forward quickly in a way that avoided large engagements with UKR forces. They’ve been skirting major cities, going for key road junctions/smaller towns, etc. Why did Moscow choose this course of action? A few theories: they didn’t take Ukraine & its military seriously. They wanted to avoid attrition & devastation because of consequences for pol goals in Ukraine, costs of casualties, and they want to hide the costs from the public. It is also possible that Russian military planners genuinely wanted to avoid inflicting high levels of destruction given how unpopular this war was going to be at home. Most Russian soldiers are young & have little interest in fighting Ukrainians as an opponent. What I’ve seen so far suggests that Russian troops were unaware they would be ordered to invade, and appear reluctant to prosecute this war. They don't see Ukrainians as adversaries and the military didn’t prepare them for this campaign. Outside of Chechens, morale seems low. This is an unworkable concept of operations. It seems they tried to win quickly and cheaply via 'thunder runs,' hoping to avoid the worst of sanctions & Western outrage. They’ve ended up in the worst of all worlds, trickling more resources into a failed strategy.

However, this is barely a few days into the war. Ukraine has done remarkably well, but no analysts (except maybe in Moscow) expected Russia to defeat the largest country in Europe within 4 days, especially given UKR military capability. On the shambolic effort - Russian units are not really fighting as BTGs. They’re driving down roads in small detachments, pushing recon & VDV units forward. Tanks often by themselves and vice versa. Fires & enablers not used decisively, and often not used at all. Outside of the fighting NW of Kyiv we have a lot of smaller detachments, tanks, IFVs, often recon or VDV units pressing down roads & into cities. Small formations regularly outrunning logistics, without support, or letting support & artillery get ambushed behind them. Beyond large numbers of units strewn out in small detachments & checkpoints, we have the inverse situation as well. Long trains of Russian vehicles stuck in their own traffic jams, entering across the border. Air defenses not covering them, but stuck on the road with them. As companies & platoons run ahead to seize points, logistics can’t keep up, and they’re not being effectively covered by support. Most of the fights I've seen are small skirmishes, especially on the outskirts of major cities. These may be intense, but not major battles. The Russian failure is driven by the fact that they’re attempting to conduct a full-scale invasion without the mil operation that it would require, thinking they can avoid most of the fighting. This has led to not only unworkable force employment, but lack of employment.

The truth is that large parts of the Russian military have yet to enter this war, with many of the capabilities still unused. Not to take away from UKR great mil performance, and resilience, but I see a lot of early judgments & conclusions that need moderation. In the first 4 days, Russian tactical aviation, except for some Su-25s, largely sat on the sidelines. So have most combat helicopters. They have hundreds of both deployed in the area. Russia's air force is missing in action, and largely unused. The Russian military sought to use cruise/ballistic missiles to destroy/suppress UKR air defense and target air bases. However, they're not flying CAPs, or offensive counter air, and only today have I spotted the first Su-34 bomber conducting strikes.
Except for heavy shelling around Kharkiv, use of fires have been limited compared to how the Russian mil typically operates. Sadly, I think this will change. Russian mil is an artillery army first, and it has used a fraction of its available fires in this war thus far. The bulk of the Russian military has yet to enter the fight. Outside Kharkiv, most of the 1st Guards Tank Army, and 20th Army, are just sitting there. They pushed a few BTGs a considerable distance past Sumy, but I think a lot of Russia's forces are still on the sidelines. Another point, Russian losses are significant, and they have had a number of troops captured, but they have been advancing along some axes. In general, Ukrainians are posting evidence of their combat successes, but the opposite is less true, distorting the overall picture.

Hence my next thought. In a desperate effort to keep the war hidden from the Russian public, framing this as a Donbas operation, Moscow has completely ceded the information environment to Ukraine, which has galvanized morale and support behind Kyiv. Another miscalculation. I won't comment on the host of official claims made in this war so far, except that I think Kyiv is doing a great job shaping perceptions & the information environment. That said, folks should approach official claims critically in a time of war. Looking at the military effort, I think Russian forces are getting some basics really wrong, but we're also learning things that are probably not true about the Russian military as well. They're not really fighting the way they train and organize for a major conventional war. The assumptions have Grozny 1994 vibes, while some of the operations remind me of classic mil org driven blunders. Sending airborne air assault brigades or naval infantry in early on to 'do their thing,' even though it is unnecessary, risky, or impractical. What's next? Russia's political leadership is still not conceding their plan's failure, trying to take Kyiv quickly. But we're seeing them open up greater use of fires, strikes, and air power. Sadly, I expect the worst is yet ahead, and this war could get a lot more ugly.
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arknor said:
It just enforces the opinion that everyone in NATO is out to get Russia and they really are the Threat in the eyes of Russian military surely
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This whole "NATO being the aggressor" against Russia is total horse ***.

NATO will never attack/invade Russia unless properly provoked/attacked first. He just cant get over the western democratic sphere of influence that he cannot stop.

Thinking in CIV (the game) terms, Putin is just **** off that the west is winning the cultural victory over all the old Soviet states bordering Russia, and there is pretty much **** all he can do about it (apart from flip the board and end everyone in nuclear war).
 
delta0 said:
The same thought has crossed my mind. They know it’s not the right thing to do (air strikes or a no fly zone) but public opinion is supporting it. I just don’t see it as it would be a huge escalation. Drones could be the only way it could be done without it being known.
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Is public opinion with it? I've yet to see a poll in the UK suggesting anything of the sort, and I'm willing to bet that other nations would be even less likely to want to get involved
 
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Only in the UK can Steve Bruce be trending over the Ukraine War :cry:
 
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