Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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potatolord said:
If Russia can stay in it for the long game, this could put them in a powerful position at the end of 2022.
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They will be the most heavily impacted out of all of us, sure they may be able to supply themselves with real basic stuff like simple food and fuel, but they will lack a lot of luxury goods, and their currency will be garbage tier on the global stage when it comes to trade.

We will suffer with some higher prices, but we can still freely do business elsewhere, Russia will really struggle whilst we will be hurt a bit.
 
Semple said:
The conflict doesn't need to be dragged out to do serious damage to Russia's economy, that's already happened and will continue to happen whilst sanctions are in place. I can't see the West lifting sanctions even if Putin stopped the war this afternoon. There's also a lot of long-term planning regarding not being reliant on Russia's oil and gas. So a lot of these sanctions will be in place for years to come regardless of how long the conflict drags on for.
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We are going to need some significant adjustments of thinking IMO to make this work and people/governments just aren't ready for it yet... in a turn of irony given the last few years we probably are going to need some significant pan European (continent) accordance, real working together and breaking down some walls so as to come out of this the stronger. I don't exactly hold my breath though.
 
On another note this isn't good:


Ukrainian forces really are going to have to pull back somewhat from the south and east so as to be able to counter-attack and keep the north east so as to prevent their overall position coming under too much pressure and that might be something Russia is countering on so as to solidify their presence in the south and eastern regions.
 
potatolord said:
Food prices will skyrocket in the near future as availability drops off. I have lots of pasta and flour in the "brexit store". It's now brexit store v4.0, I think.

This will be very bad news for countries (eg egypt) where the government provides free bread to maintain their popularity.

If Russia can stay in it for the long game, this could put them in a powerful position at the end of 2022.
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That's incredibly ambitious. I think it was one of the big financial firms recently announced that by mid April Russia's economy will be similar to Venezuela, they also have more sanctions placed on them than Iran. Neither of those countries are exactly thriving and they've been living under sanctions for years.

Sanctions may put Russia in a more powerful position in the long run, by being forced to be self-sufficient, but i'd be amazed if that happens in the next decade or two.
 
Uther said:
We'll all suffer hugely if this drags out. Our own economies will be collapsing.
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Yup this will be worse than 07/08. Russia was the 11th largest economy last time I looked. Nuking it from orbit is just going to make mess for everyone but what can you do? Cannot just sit there and let them do what they want.
 
tracertong said:
Is there anything you are not an expert on ? lol
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Rroff's statement is more a bit of common sense really. The less self-sufficient you are the more you rely on other countries to meet your needs. Which means they have control over how much you get / how much you pay for it / whether to cut you off entirely.

For luxury goods, that's not a massive issue, but for critical things like food / energy / aid, it could seriously cripple a country.
 
Russian Equities and Debt have been removed from most (if not all, I am sure there are some that haven't been updated at least) major indices meaning there will be a substanital sell off by everyone outside Russia (tbf there probably has been where it's been possible). If you remove that investment, plus reduction in trade there is going to be a systematic vaccum. I know that's more ephemeral right now but the impact in a few months or even weeks will be much more than no McDonalds and Facebook. In milliary terms it's a clusterbomb attack across the whole of that country civilians and all. The personal sanctions are the only targetted assasination attempts.

What's my point? I don't think we can take for granted that the sanctions are going to turn the Russian people against their leader - it's equally possible it will do the opposite.

I agree with the sanctions of course, however as (some) people seem to love to say "go into this with your eyes open" :D
 
Semple said:
That's incredibly ambitious. I think it was one of the big financial firms recently announced that by mid April Russia's economy will be similar to Venezuela, they also have more sanctions placed on them than Iran. Neither of those countries are exactly thriving and they've been living under sanctions for years.

Sanctions may put Russia in a more powerful position in the long run, by being forced to be self-sufficient, but i'd be amazed if that happens in the next decade or two.
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I'm not saying it is likely Russia can ride this out to the end of 2022. They are making heavy going in ukraine and Russians will struggle to cope without the little luxuries they have grown used to.

If world food (and energy) supply is heavily impacted, that will be a powerful tool. Sanctions would be tested if there is hunger in other countries.

For reference, I think Russia and Ukraine produce around 15% of the world's wheat.
 
potatolord said:
I'm not saying it is likely Russia can ride this out to the end of 2022. They are making heavy going in ukraine and Russians will struggle to cope without the little luxuries they have grown used to.

If world food (and energy) supply is heavily impacted, that will be a powerful tool. Sanctions would be tested if there is hunger in other countries.

For reference, I think Russia and Ukraine produce around 15% of the world's wheat.
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The wealthy middle classes will shoot off. If they can't compete in the global economy (i.e. their pension, wealth etc. precludes them from holidays, luxuries) then they'll leave. Simples.
 
Simon said:
The sanctions and associated reactions are turning the populous anti Europe if anything
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Juts poorly educated Russian opinions I think, I don't think we really want to sanction Russia like this, but not doing so is worse.

I still hope a solution can be found I just struggle to see there being one whilst Putin is in charge of Russia given the current war going on.
 
I dont think our economies will be collapsing, but its going to be yet another shock which requires adaption, we havent finished the other two yet
-Brexit
-Covid
-Ukraine war

Ukraine impact could make the others look tiny.

IMO what we are going to see is far more inflation, yet again supply chains are going to need to change, economics will take effect in regards items that came heavily from the area, the ability and availabilty of substitution will be key
 
Sankari said:
Fox always wheels out Tulsi Gabbard whenever they need to bash a Democrat president for something they'd celebrate if a Republican president was doing it. The intro is nonsense, Biden is absolutely steadfast against a hot war, and is doing everything he can to avoid it.
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I'm not sure how she ever called herself a Democrat. And its a bit rich of Fox opinion consider Tucker Carlson-ski was backing Russia over this right up until the polling showed he was on the wrong side of history and then he has pathetically attempted to rewrite history on that. If this was a Republican president they would be swooning over him right now and probably banging the war drum.
 
dLockers said:
Most of the poor are anti Europe anyway. It has been what Putin told them to think for decades.
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Not talking about the poor. Talking about the people I know who amongst them work for an international company and their coping mechanism with their economy going down the pan.
 
Back to crop rotation, traditional farming methods and less reliance on fertilizer equals lower yields but not no yield.

Serious investments on energy needed, tidal barrages on the Severn and Morecambe bay?

The last cold war lasted 40 years, this one could as well.
 
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