Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Blackjack Davy]

Will the west ever 'convert' Russia, bring it into the fold like they're trying to do with Ukraine. Once the old communist gaurd die out, will there ever be enough will and momentum to completely change Russia to become more aligned with EU or Western thinking?

I'm not saying it should change but I'm genuinely wondering if we will see a revolution in Russia in the coming years?

Our best chance as at the end of the cold war but totally failed to really reach out to them we were still treating them like the enemy someone who was a western advisor to the kremlin was being asked "why don't they like us? What do we have to do to get them to like us?" they even thought about joining NATO at one point but that was turned down iirc though we were happy enough to snap up former warsaw pact countries i.e. poland, the baltics etc which was basically a slap in the face as far as Russia was concerned they see themselves as a great power that was basically being ignored or worse insulted - that resentment is something that drives Putin so its partly our fault though thats not going to be a popular view -

 

[Minusorange]

This is a about a West Slavic country (Ukraine), of which the only other one besides Russia is Belorussia, joining Russia's cold war enemy in NATO.

Just ignore threats to Finland & Sweden about joining NATO, he wants his own Russian empire and to see NATO shrink, destroying Ukraine won't satisfy his paranoia around NATO or his dreams of expansion

 

[Rroff]

The Ukranian and Russian Foreign Ministers are meeting in Antalya (Turkey) tonight, maybe more discussion going on that we know about?

https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...ey-talks-with-ukraine-counterpart-2022-03-09/

Saw the Russian gov plane flying in earlier on Flight Radar, not sure what it is going to accomplish though - these talks seem little other than a sick joke now.

 

[ianh]

Yeah it's a ****** deal, but that is the way global politics work.

Woah there, we can't have actual rational, realistic thoughts on Realpoltik and how the world actually works in here, it'll hurt the feelings of the "lets risk nuclear war over a handful of people" brigade who aren't quite emotionally mature enough to realise that life isn't fair and are willing to kill billions in an attempt to make it fair.

 

[Uther]

Woah there, we can't have actual rational, realistic thoughts on Realpoltik and how the world actually works in here, it'll hurt the feelings of the "lets risk nuclear war over a handful of people" brigade who aren't quite emotionally mature enough to realise that life isn't fair and are willing to kill billions in an attempt to make it fair.

A 'handful of people'? There's 44 million people in Ukraine. **** em eh.

 

[C.R.A.Z.Y]

Woah there, we can't have actual rational, realistic thoughts on Realpoltik and how the world actually works in here, it'll hurt the feelings of the "lets risk nuclear war over a handful of people" brigade who aren't quite emotionally mature enough to realise that life isn't fair and are willing to kill billions in an attempt to make it fair.

Well we might as well start handing Putin more countries then because if you think his going to stop at Ukraine your delusional!

 

[MartinPrince]

Just ignore threats to Finland & Sweden about joining NATO, he wants his own Russian empire and to see NATO shrink, destroying Ukraine won't satisfy his paranoia around NATO or his dreams of expansion

There was no talk of Finland or Sweden joining NATO before the invasion of Ukraine. Putin has already gone down the rabbit hole and has now made NATO more relevant by his action but that doesn't mean that he can allow further expansion without threatening reprisals.

Sweden/Finland are not Ukraine. The issue with Ukraine might have the potential joining of NATO as the headline issue but it is more complex than that. There are issues to do with oil and gas, the large Russian speaking population in the east etc. Ukraine's history is closely entwined with Russia's, which is why this feels more like a betrayal to Russia - and the people in Salisbury knows what Russia does to traitors.

Sweden and Finland might not be members of NATO but they are in the E.U. I don't particular see Putin's attack on Ukraine as a sign of madness but an attack on Sweden/Finland would be truly mad as the rest of Europe would not then probably standby as they are now.

 

[Scougar]

Seems like a good use of the foreign legion would be to attack the rear of the northern force in kviv. It seems like sitting still will just resort in utter destruction of the cities.

 

[C.R.A.Z.Y]

There was no talk of Finland or Sweden joining NATO before the invasion of Ukraine. Putin has already gone down the rabbit hole and has now made NATO more relevant by his action but that doesn't mean that he can allow further expansion without threatening reprisals.

Sweden/Finland are not Ukraine. The issue with Ukraine might have the potential joining of NATO as the headline issue but it is more complex than that. There are issues to do with oil and gas, the large Russian speaking population in the east etc. Ukraine's history is closely entwined with Russia's, which is why this feels more like a betrayal to Russia - and the people in Salisbury knows what Russia does to traitors.

Sweden and Finland might not be members of NATO but they are in the E.U. I don't particular see Putin's attack on Ukraine as a sign of madness but an attack on Sweden/Finland would be truly mad as the rest of Europe would not then probably standby as they are now.

Putin wants to put Viktor Yanukovych back in power! Do you know how insulting that is to Ukrainians and utterly disrespectful to all the people who died and shed blood protesting & fighting in the 2014 revolution ousting him ?

I suggest you watch this excellent documentary if you want to see what Ukrainians think of Putin/Russia or even living under a pro Putin/Russian government!!

 

[Zuban]

Kobiyashi Maru test seems relevant right now lol

 

[Rroff]

Seems like a good use of the foreign legion would be to attack the rear of the northern force in kviv. It seems like sitting still will just resort in utter destruction of the cities.

Ukraine definitely need some manoeuvring so as to be able to counter-attack - but there is a risk there of giving up significant ground in doing so, so I'm not quite sure how to balance that out.

US estimates that Russia has incurred up to 6K dead and 18K injured - which is about half-way to the point the majority of units would be incapacitated by losses and require significant regrouping and/or no longer able to maintain combat effectiveness as a larger force.

 

[SpeedFreak]

Kobiyashi Maru test seems relevant right now lol

Someone needs to rewrite the program then ..

 

[MartinPrince]

Putin wants to put Viktor Yanukovych back in power! Do you know how insulting that is to Ukrainians and utterly disrespectful to all the people who died and shed blood protesting & fighting in the 2014 revolution ousting him ?

Of course it would be to most Western Ukrainians but why would that bother Putin?

By dangling NATO membership in front of the Ukrainians the west (U.S/Europe) was waving a red flag to a bull, we shouldn't be too surprised when that bull charges.

They've been miscalculations on both sides but Russia's current overreaction could have been predicted based on Putin's words and actions since 2008.

 

[wildman]

A 'handful of people'? There's 44 million people in Ukraine. **** em eh.

yes, at the end of the day 44 million is a handfull of people v the entire rest of the west and USA. As much as it might get your panties bunched, the west is currently basically already saying **** em. A lot of you are having difficulty understanding this is nothing to do with morality or what price on life etc. Global politics is not executed on the basis of emotions or heart string tugs or even being effectively emotionally blackmailed on live TV everyday by a country leader that basically wants you to expand the scope of the war by deploying a shed load of NATO air assets into a potential direct confrontational situation with Russian air assets.

The bottom line is that there is a certain cost to global politics and whilst it's a bum deal the cost in this case looks like its going to paid for with Ukrainian lives. That might not sit well with any of us, but that's exactly what is happening. NATO are pumping Ukraine full of military hardware and basically hoping that Russia get ground down slowly, but the cost here is Ukrainian lives as the longer they fight the more intense the Russian raze tactics get.

Best case scenario is that I am completely wrong and NATO get to a point where a line is crossed. But realistically that line is probably something that has little chance of happening i.e Russia directly attacking another NATO member, or the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons a little to close to the border of Ukraine with say Poland that means parts of eastern Poland get fallout. e.g a 100KT tactical ground level detonation in Lviv would see fallout in parts of eastern Poland depending on the direction of the prevailing winds.

Also everyone saying where is he going next. The simple answer is nowhere. Unless Putin literally conscripts the entire fighting capable population of Russia he is not going to even get anywhere near to somewhere like Finland or Sweden or even Poland. He hasn't even got enough troops or good enough logistics to effectively occupy Ukraine even if he does pull of a miracle win that doesn't equate to scorched earth. More to the point he hasn;t even been able to capture and hold a major city (Kharkiv) which is just a stone throw away from his own borders. I think @MartinPrince said, this is basically about Ukraine and Putins misty eyed dreams of CCCP Mark 2. Putin might be mental but he is not at the levels of insanity yet where he is going to lock horns directly in open war with NATO. Unless he really is about to die and is going to see himself off with a 21 strategical nuke salute.

 

[wildman]

Of course it would be to most Western Ukrainians but why would that bother Putin?

By dangling NATO membership in front of the Ukrainians the west (U.S/Europe) was waving a red flag to a bull, we shouldn't be too surprised when that bull charges.

They've been miscalculations on both sides but Russia's current overreaction could have been predicted based on Putin's words and actions since 2008.

to be fair I wouldn;t say the bull was charging. This was more of an old bull with major hip issues and a touch or athritis that kind of limped itself over the border...................

It has been a massive over reaction by Russia to something that was basically not going to happen for literally decades. Putin already saw to that by annexing crimea and then effectively supporting insurgency in the eastern regions. Whether NATO membership was on offer or not isn't really the catalyst for what is happening here, I think that was the catalyst for the actions in Crimea. I think this is more about empire building and a twisted desire to rebuild the old Soviet state.

 

[C.R.A.Z.Y]

Of course it would be to most Western Ukrainians but why would that bother Putin?

By dangling NATO membership in front of the Ukrainians the west (U.S/Europe) was waving a red flag to a bull, we shouldn't be too surprised when that bull charges.

They've been miscalculations on both sides but Russia's current overreaction could have been predicted based on Putin's words and actions since 2008.

If an independent country wants to join NATO that's none of Putin or Russia's bloody business.
That comes across a bit victim blaming, like she was asking for it because of what she was wearing!!

 

[Rroff]

Also everyone saying where is he going next. The simple answer is nowhere. Unless Putin literally conscripts the entire fighting capable population of Russia he is not going to even get anywhere near to somewhere like Finland or Sweden or even Poland. He hasn't even got enough troops or good enough logistics to effectively occupy Ukraine even if he does pull of a miracle win that doesn't equate to scorched earth. More to the point he hasn;t even been able to capture and hold a major city (Kharkiv) which is just a stone throw away from his own borders. I think @MartinPrince said, this is basically about Ukraine and Putins misty eyed dreams of CCCP Mark 2. Putin might be mental but he is not at the levels of insanity yet where he is going to lock horns directly in open war with NATO. Unless he really is about to die and is going to see himself off with a 21 strategical nuke salute.

Although not directly the same, Russia still has avenues with China, etc., what is going on now to them is similar to what pushed Japan into WW2 - I wouldn't eliminate Russia going to a full war footing as a possibility.

 

[SteveOBHave]

to be fair I wouldn;t say the bull was charging. This was more of an old bull with major hip issues and a touch or athritis that kind of limped itself over the border...................

It has been a massive over reaction by Russia to something that was basically not going to happen for literally decades. Putin already saw to that by annexing crimea and then effectively supporting insurgency in the eastern regions. Whether NATO membership was on offer or not isn't really the catalyst for what is happening here, I think that was the catalyst for the actions in Crimea. I think this is more about empire building and a twisted desire to rebuild the old Soviet state.

I agree - the NATO carry on is just a part of the smoke and mirrors game that he's playing. Pooty is all about becoming the Tzar and building both an empire and a dynasty. I also think that you're right about the way that this will play out - he's stuck and really should've just steamed straight into Kyiv and installed his puppet government. He's spread too thin with poorly trained soldiers, crap logistics and hardware that isn't up to the weather. Ironic really the weather playing a role like it has historically done before. You'd think they'd learn.

I'm hoping that the Russian people will get fed up and someone domestically will "terminate" his "employment". That would be the outcome with the most positive effects and allow for a more rapid unwinding of sanctions especially if there is an elected leader put in place rather than just a continuation of the oligarchs and Pootys corrupt mates. (Pipe dreams...)

 

[SteveOBHave]

Although not directly the same, Russia still has avenues with China, etc., what is going on now to them is similar to what pushed Japan into WW2 - I wouldn't eliminate Russia going to a full war footing as a possibility.

This is true - suffice to say China now has an avenue to cheap LNG and a captive demand for manufactured goods and food. I'm just curious to see how much Xi is willing to risk playing the same game with Taiwan - I'm guessing at this stage they're pretty spooked by the severity of the sanctions especially with the precarious nature of the Chinese economy.

 

[wildman]

Although not directly the same, Russia still has avenues with China, etc., what is going on now to them is similar to what pushed Japan into WW2 - I wouldn't eliminate Russia going to a full war footing as a possibility.

possibly, but that still doesn't give them tactical superiority to the extent that they will successfully take on NATO, unless they really are going for the full glass making option. If Russia, even on full war footing mode go after a NATO member, the initial opening phase of the war would likely be conventional, and based on Russia's current showing, NATO would have them turned over in a conventional war in weeks. NATO air power alone would render a lot of Russia's go to tactics in effective within the first few days of that war. Russia know this, so that would mean their end game is the nuclear option, in which case why bother trying to fight a conventional war you know you can't win, just bunker up and press the button.