Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

arknor · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:25

banbom44 said:
He will have to recognize Crimea as being part of Russia and maybe give up the Donbas but i don't think they will want that anyway more trouble than its worth and its a ruin now anyway.

Azov being disbanded is probably one of the things Russia wants and Zelensky can't do it, they will just start a civil war instead

Puzzled · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:26

dLockers said:
You understand fuel prices were going through the roof regardless of Ukraine? All of the UK energy companies going bust started months before this was even on our radar.

Yes and the cap is predicted to jump a huge amount again in October (40-50%) due to the war in Ukraine. Its unsustainable and the government are not putting adequate support in place to help people through it.

TheMightyTen · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:27

Amnesia said:
Would you prefer me to jump on the bandwagon and spam unrealistic twitter posts ?
I'm just trying to have a more realistic discussion.

Or demonstrating you have fallen hook, line and sinker for Putin and Lavrov's Maskirovka. It appears more like you don't believe a sovereign nation has the right to determine it's own wants and wishes (the likelihood of those wants and wishes being granted being very low in the case of NATO membership)

Nerusy · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:29

dLockers said:
Here we go bois, another "the other side of the argument" comrade

"Its all about the subtleties of the situation which only make sense if you just, for a second, consider ignoring the big picture entirely"

How dare he commit a thoughtcrime. We ought to send him to the Ministry of Love!

Chuk_Chuk · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:31

Nah I don't care

banbom44 · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:33

Puzzled said:
Yes and the cap is predicted to jump a huge amount again in October (40-50%) due to the war in Ukraine. Its unsustainable and the government are not putting adequate support in place to help people through it.

Could Iran or Venezuela help maybe by dropping sanctions and they have lots of oil and gas to sell.

Washout · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:33

Amnesia said:
Would you prefer me to jump on the bandwagon and spam unrealistic twitter posts ?
I'm just trying to have a more realistic discussion.

The only real reason they didn’t want Ukraine in nato was it would prohibit them from doing exactly what they are now. Everything else is just propaganda to feed to the gullible.
Russia already has borders with Nato countries. None of those countries host or have anything that could threaten Russia itself. It was never about Russian security being compromised.
Nice talking point for them to spew out.

it does now give Putin an off ramp though for saving face as they’ve frankly lost this. They can inflict enormous damage to Ukraine and themselves by prolonging it but the reality is they’ve lost. This isn’t the 40’s where they can just throw bodies and mass produced armour at a problem.

Uther · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:34

It's the internet, if it existed in 1939 I'm sure the same sort of people would have been supporting the German invasion of Poland, just 'because...'

CaptainRAVE · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:35

Chuk_Chuk said:
My point still stands, sanctions cannot continue (without leading to WW3) just because Ukraine doesn't join NATO.
A lack of resource and a country "dying" will inevitably lead to war.

Even with sanctions lifted, the majority of companies won’t be seen to do business with them.

Turn · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:36

*Russia’s Patrushev, U.S. Sullivan Hold Phone Talks — TASS
*Russia’s Patrushev Urged US National Security Adviser Sullivan to Halt Ukraine Arms Supplies. — IFX.
https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1504089039317704710
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1504090238137913347

*Putin: We Do Not Want to Occupy Ukraine
*Putin: We Did Not Have Alternative Choices Other Than the Special Military Operation.
*Putin: Ukraine Could Have Had Nuclear Weapons in the Foreseeable Future
*Putin: Ukraine Backed Up by Western Powers Planned Aggression Against Russia
*Putin: Kyiv Authorities Were Urged to Evacuate Soldiers From Donbass at the Start of the Operation, but They Did Not Do So.
*Putin: Ukraine ‘Operation’ ‘Successful’, in Line w/ Plans — TASS
*Putin: Ukraine, Backed by Western Forces, Planned Aggression on Russia.
*Putin: All Our Tasks Will Be Achieved
*Putin: We Are Ready for Talks.
*Putin: West Is Facing Rising Energy Costs
*Putin: The Problems of the West Will Only Increase
https://twitter.com/ForexLive/status/1504089613924810752

~editing as/if more is added

Rilot · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:37

CaptainRAVE said:
Even with sanctions lifted, the majority of companies won’t be seen to do business with them.

Of course they will. If they can make money then they will do business.

banbom44 · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:37

Washout said:
The only real reason they didn’t want Ukraine in nato was it would prohibit them from doing exactly what they are now. Everything else is just propaganda to feed to the gullible.
Russia already has borders with Nato countries. None of those countries host or have anything that could threaten Russia itself. It was never about Russian security being compromised.
Nice talking point for them to spew out.

it does now give Putin an off ramp though for saving face as they’ve frankly lost this. They can inflict enormous damage to Ukraine and themselves by prolonging it but the reality is they’ve lost. This isn’t the 40’s where they can just throw bodies and mass produced armour at a problem.

Was NATO just an excuse just like the Nazi stuff and it was all just plain old Russian imperialism?

CaptainRAVE · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:38

Rilot said:
Of course they will. If they can make money then they will do business.

Depends whether people boycott them or not. It’ll take a long time. With potential changes to trademark laws and Russia making of with millions in leased equipment, they don’t exactly exude investment confidence.

Other than natural resources there won’t be much money in Russia to go around anyway.

Chuk_Chuk · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:39

CaptainRAVE said:
Even with sanctions lifted, the majority of companies won’t be seen to do business with them.

The same businesses that do business in China?
Business will go where they can make money.

banbom44 · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:40

CaptainRAVE said:
Depends whether people boycott them or not. It’ll take a long time. With potential changes to trademark laws and Russia making of with millions in leased equipment, they don’t exactly exude investment confidence.

We invest in china and they nick stuff all the time it costs the United States 500 billion dollars a year in stolen technology.

Rilot · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:40

I suppose, when a Big-Mac costs a month's wages it's hard to sell.

Jono8 · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:41

0007 said:
*Putin: Ukraine Backed Up by Western Powers Planned Aggression Against Russia
*Putin: Ukraine, Backed by Western Forces, Planned Aggression on Russia.

This is just such obvious bull ****.

There was never any risk whatsoever of Ukraine attacking Russia.

Rroff · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:42

Jono8 said:
This is just such obvious bull ****.

There was never any risk whatsoever of Ukraine attacking Russia.

The worrying thing is whether Putin believes his own propaganda or not :s

Turn · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:42

0007 said:
*Putin: We Do Not Want to Occupy Ukraine
*Putin: We Did Not Have Alternative Choices Other Than the Special Military Operation.
*Putin: Ukraine Could Have Had Nuclear Weapons in the Foreseeable Future
*Putin: Ukraine Backed Up by Western Powers Planned Aggression Against Russia
*Putin: Kyiv Authorities Were Urged to Evacuate Soldiers From Donbass at the Start of the Operation, but They Did Not Do So.
*Putin: Ukraine ‘Operation’ ‘Successful’, in Line w/ Plans — TASS
*Putin: Ukraine, Backed by Western Forces, Planned Aggression on Russia.
*Putin: All Our Tasks Will Be Achieved
*Putin: We Are Ready for Talks.
*Putin: West Is Facing Rising Energy Costs
*Putin: The Problems of the West Will Only Increase

Continuing on from previous quote here:

*Putin: Who Will Answer for the Millions of Deaths in the Poorest Countries From Hunger?
*Putin: USA and EU Have Effectively Declared Default to Russia
*Putin: Western Actions Showed Gold and Forex Reserves Can Be Just Stolen
*Putin: Russia to Reward Foreign Companies That Remain
*Putin: West’s Actions Are Similar to Anti-Semitic Pogroms in Germany in 1930s
*Putin: West Is an Empire of Lies
*Putin: West Is Seeking to Dismember Russia but It Will Not Succeed

Nerusy · 16 Mar 2022 at 13:42

Rilot said:
Of course they will. If they can make money then they will do business.

Well that's the thing, if you have to model for risk of another repeat of sanctions we had just seen then economically the risk may be too much to continue operations in Russia. Case and point the situation around planes, who in their right mind would lease planes to Russia knowing that they may lose the asset at any moment.

We are about to see technical default in Russia. They have the money but they cannot pay because of sanctions. So even if sanctions are dropped then Russian sovereign debt will forever now trade at a premium because the market will have to price in repeat of these sanctions and even if the probability is low the loss that needs to be priced in will drive up the price of borrowing.