Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Rroff said:
Just saw:

"
Home Secretary Priti Patel later revealed she had also recently been targeted by a hoax caller.

"This also happened to me earlier this week," she posted in response to Mr Wallace's tweet.
"

Talk about lax security - one attempt at it should have had red flags up and measures in place, absolutely inexcusable lack of joined up communications/organisation.
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?

It's just someone dialling mobile numbers. Unclear what security they thought mobile phone numbers entailed? :confused:
 
Scary how it looks like something out of a movie...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-60786964

I'm absolutely blown away at the defence of Kharkiv - they weren't in a good position when things kicked off, at one point were almost over-run but from sheer tenacity, tactics and an abundance of RPGs have beaten back some of the better elements of the Russian army who unlike other fronts have less issues in terms of supply lines, etc.

dLockers said:
?

It's just someone dialling mobile numbers. Unclear what security they thought mobile phone numbers entailed? :confused:
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In Ben Wallace's case it was a video call. But given the situation you'd have thought an attempt like that would have been noted and raised the security posture towards more vetting of calls.
 
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flea.rider said:
WITH RUSSIA'S POOR SHOWING IN THE UKRAINE .. he's never going to attack anything else ... he will try and hold what he has .. but with the in flux of troops and eu/us weapons' .. there may be a long road ahead ..
the only thing he could do to show some kind of strength is a tactical nuke .. but that atm is very risky .. only other option which he should have done from the start is put 75% of his army in the ukraine .. but he thought kids would do it ?????
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Don't think anybody really knows what's going to happen in the coming months & years but Russia is looking finished for sure however that could be a dangerous thing :(
 
flea.rider said:
only other option which he should have done from the start is put 75% of his army in the ukraine
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He's already close to that, news reports prior to the invasion said he had put ~50% of the army on Ukraine's border and reports since say around 90% of that has gone in.

Still won't be enough though, they outnumbered the Ukrainian army in the beginning (~150,000 invaders vs ~125,000 defenders) but since war broke out over 300,000 Ukrainian men have travelled home from the EU specifically to fight Russia, and Ukraine had 900,000 reservists on file before they got invaded. The Russian forces are massively outnumbered now to the point where Putin would have to send in the entire Russian army plus their entire reserve forces just to regain a numbers advantage.

He gambled big that their "superior" equipment would make the difference and Ukraine's equipment would be steamrolled, he was wrong big.


bris said:
Maybe it will get through to some Russians if they ever get to see it.
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They actually might considering he's one of the only people Putin follows xD
 
ubersonic said:
He's already close to that, news reports prior to the invasion said he had put ~50% of the army on Ukraine's border and reports since say around 90% of that has gone in.

Still won't be enough though, they outnumbered the Ukrainian army in the beginning (~150,000 invaders vs ~125,000 defenders) but since war broke out over 300,000 Ukrainian men have travelled home from the EU specifically to fight Russia, and Ukraine had 900,000 reservists on file before they got invaded. The Russian forces are massively outnumbered now to the point where Putin would have to send in the entire Russian army plus their entire reserve forces just to regain a numbers advantage.

He gambled big that their "superior" equipment would make the difference and Ukraine's equipment would be steamrolled, he was wrong big.



They actually might considering he's one of the only people Putin follows xD
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Did he not foresee that Ukraines equipment would be provided by the west’s advanced and superior weaponry?
 
robfosters said:
Did he not foresee that Ukraines equipment would be provided by the west’s advanced and superior weaponry?
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Maybe he didn't expect the west to provide up to the second intelligence on all Russian movements and probably advising them on where to ambush and coordinates for artillery etc to hit.

It's like Ukraine has that RTS view and putins still working with the fog of war.


Seems Russia is just dealing with the proxy war and not complaining much really, I'd have thought Nato countries had already crossed the line, Putins pretty much fighting them already in a contained kill zone where his forces can barely move without being hammered
 
ubersonic said:
He's already close to that, news reports prior to the invasion said he had put ~50% of the army on Ukraine's border and reports since say around 90% of that has gone in.

Still won't be enough though, they outnumbered the Ukrainian army in the beginning (~150,000 invaders vs ~125,000 defenders) but since war broke out over 300,000 Ukrainian men have travelled home from the EU specifically to fight Russia, and Ukraine had 900,000 reservists on file before they got invaded. The Russian forces are massively outnumbered now to the point where Putin would have to send in the entire Russian army plus their entire reserve forces just to regain a numbers advantage.

He gambled big that their "superior" equipment would make the difference and Ukraine's equipment would be steamrolled, he was wrong big.
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Russian forces built up at Ukraine's borders was nothing like ~50% of their standing forces (in terms of subtracting from what they had available normally) - of the run of the mill infantry probably 60% was bulked out from a new draft, etc. some of the elite divisions only about 20% of their strength was used for Ukraine. These efforts have barely scratched the surface of the regular Russian forces albeit some areas have been hit harder than others i.e. VDV and special forces.

It is hard to get a good idea of the actual active combat forces Ukraine has but between their regular armed forces, recognised irregular/militia forces, border forces, national guard, police, reserves and volunteers, etc. they must have well over 300K regular and much more irregular forces currently not including non-combat support roles.

EDIT: I'm not even sure some of the Russian airborne and special forces, etc. supposedly represented in Ukraine are what they purport to be either - aside from a small number of instances often the videos of them show nothing like the training those units have shown in places like Syria, etc. often only a small number seem to have any clue what they are doing and most are doing stuff that gets taught out of soldiers in their first few weeks of training such as running in front of people in firing positions when they cold move behind them, poor muzzle discipline, blocking each other from being able to move into cover, etc.
 
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robfosters said:
Did he not foresee that Ukraines equipment would be provided by the west’s advanced and superior weaponry?
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Highly doubtful because prior to him staging his invasion force on the border we hadn't really sent them anything of note in the past 8 years of "minor" war so he probably believed that either we wouldn't send much or we wouldn't be able to send it in time after his forces began storming to Kiev. Add to that he's a dictator and dictators tend to surround themselves with military yes men who just praise them and tell them what they want to hear (by all accounts Saddam genuinely believed his army could stop the UN invasion force).

Like with the whole war he gambled big and lost big, he thought his forces could take out the Ukrainian air defences, take out the Ukrainian air force, and just steamroll to Kiev. It wasn't too bad of a plan in theory, after all he saw NATO do it in Libya in 2011 and that didn't even involve troops on the ground, just a bunch of rebels in pickups driving across the country while NATO air forces eradicated any ground/air resistance ahead of them. So in theory an actual army would have no problem.

Where theory met practice however is where it derailed for him because first he had to delay the invasion after his boss in Beijing calling to say he wasn't allowed to invade anywhere during the Olympics, this gave us more time to funnel anti-tank weapons in. Then when the invasion kicked off it became apparent they had completely underestimated the amount of SAM batteries Ukraine had got operational in the last eight years (despite this being the primary recipient of Ukraine's focus in that time) and so they couldn't knock enough of them or Ukraine's planes out in the first 48h to gain air supremacy, again massively stalling their invasion and allowing us to get more equipment in.

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The thing I find most amazing is that this invasion has gone pretty much exactly as I and a couple of others on there predicted it would back in Jan/Feb, and I'm no genius. If I could see it the Putin's military yes men certainly could, and none of them had the balls to tell him :(
 
ubersonic said:
so he probably believed that either we wouldn't send much or we wouldn't be able to send it in time after his forces began storming to Kiev
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I'd bet they were banking on the West's efforts mired in red tape and infighting and nothing of significance happening before it was "long over". And not unreasonable to believe that given recent history.

ubersonic said:
Add to that he's a dictator and dictators tend to surround themselves with military yes men who just praise them and tell them what they want to hear (by all accounts Saddam genuinely believed his army could stop the UN invasion force).
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This aspect I find quite worrying as they also probably have him assured the plans for an impenetrable bunker city built by Gazprom for Russia (as a idea) to survive and re-emerge from a nuclear war are all ready and viable as well.
 
Not sure if reported yet:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60785754

On Thursday afternoon, President Vladimir Putin rang the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and told him what Russia's precise demands were for a peace deal with Ukraine.

The Russian demands fall into two categories.

The first four demands are, according to Mr Kalin, not too difficult for Ukraine to meet.

Chief among them is an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral and should not apply to join Nato. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has already conceded this.

There are other demands in this category which mostly seem to be face-saving elements for the Russian side.

Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia. There would have to be protection for the Russian language in Ukraine. And there is something called de-Nazification.

The second category is where the difficulty will lie, and in his phone call, Mr Putin said that it would need face-to-face negotiations between him and President Zelensky before agreement could be reached on these points. Mr Zelensky has already said he's prepared to meet the Russian president and negotiate with him one-to-one.

Mr Kalin was much less specific about these issues, saying simply that they involved the status of Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, parts of which have already broken away from Ukraine and stressed their Russianness, and the status of Crimea.

Although Mr Kalin didn't go into detail, the assumption is that Russia will demand that the Ukrainian government should give up territory in eastern Ukraine. That will be deeply contentious.

The other assumption is that Russia will demand that Ukraine should formally accept that Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, does indeed now belong to Russia. If this is the case, it will be a bitter pill for Ukraine to swallow.

Nevertheless, it is a fait accompli, even though Russia has no legal right to own Crimea and actually signed an international treaty, after the fall of Communism but before V
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Demands seem far more "reasonable" than the start of the conflict, however, whilst ending violence and no further escalation would be good, with Russia seemingly on the back foot and Ukraine already having been through a massive amount with huge backing, i think they should fight on quite frankly.
 
Firestar_3x said:
Not sure if reported yet:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60785754



Demands seem far more "reasonable" than the start of the conflict, however, whilst ending violence and no further escalation would be good, with Russia seemingly on the back foot and Ukraine already having been through a massive amount with huge backing, i think they should fight on quite frankly.
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Same, but that's easy for me to say sitting on my couch safe at home, and not in a shell hole in Kharkiv! Depends how much bloodshed Zelenskyy is willing to take to make Putin suffer.
Whatever happens now Russia has come out of this the loser, on many levels.
 
Rroff said:
Russian forces built up at Ukraine's borders was nothing like ~50% of their standing forces (in terms of subtracting from what they had available normally)
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I said they pre-staged ~50% of their army on the border not ~50% of their entire military.

Russia's military may have ~900,000 personnel excluding reservists but their army (including airborne troops) is only ~320,000 strong, so the 150,000+ army troops they pre-staged for the ground invasion would constitute ~50% of the army. The big 900k number the media like to parade around in articles on Ukraine includes the navy personnel, the air force personnel, the strategic nuclear weapons force and their military rail network forces (yes they still have those lol).

Granted, given Putin's current mental state it is possible he used sailors, aircraft mechanics and train drivers as ground troops to invade Ukraine (and judging by the ground troops performance it would explain a great many things) but I felt safe to presume otherwise in the math :P
 
I find it hard to see how any of that is not just Russia stalling for time and trying to get Ukraine to let its guard down a bit given that Russia is still involved to a significant amount if raising more forces from its regular army to send into Ukraine as reinforcements and scrabbling around to find more meat grinder troops.

Especially given some of the stuff like bare faced lying to the UN it would be crazy to take them at their word as well.
 
Rroff said:
This aspect I find quite worrying as they also probably have him assured the plans for an impenetrable bunker city built by Gazprom for Russia (as a idea) to survive and re-emerge from a nuclear war are all ready and viable as well.
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Are you saying they might be.............

Gaz-lighting him?

:cool:
 
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