I don't know much about Sweden. Though I know they sent people to the Yugoslavia war. Finland I know more about as I've a good friend who is an aircraft engineer.
Let's just say that Russia would have a harder time attacking Finland. Let us not forget the winter war.
I think it becomes a question of how far we allow Russia to go in the weapons it uses. For example if Russia set off a nuke in Ukraine would NATO consider it such a threat that it would be forced to react, like a pre-emptive attack on Russia?
At the moment my feeling is that any country that isn't aligned to anyone, and doesn't have nukes, are vulnerable to being attacked, invaded and taken over.
I know this phrase gets over used by certain people. But we really are in a new world order. If you're a country with nukes nobody is going to physically stop you invading a non-nuclear country that isn't in a military alliance.
It's like you mentioned in your post. If Russia did attack Finland would the west do anything? There is no obligation on NATO. But the EU itself has a mutual defensive pact, so other EU countries would get involved. If those countries were also NATO members and they were attacked while carrying out their EU defense duties then would NATO consider it an attack on them?
I think it is a big question for none nuclear countries.. are they prepared to risk a direct nuke attack if they go up against a nuclear country?
I think the EU needs to become more nuclear. This is a bit like the gun debate. The only way to eliminate the gun advantage, like nukes, is if everyone had one.
